Scenarios and Vision for the European Territory in 2050

1. Scenarios and Vision for the European Territory in 2050 Andreu Ulied, MCRIT, Lead Partner ESPON Territorial Scenarios and Vision for 2050 • ESPON MC • 5th December 2013 Vlinius

2. ET2050Consortium

3. FromProject Specifications: The ESPON Monitoring Committee, DG Regio and the ESPON Coordination Unit wish to start a territorial vision-building process that involves relevant stakeholdersat European, national and regional level, having 2050 as time horizon

4. ET2050 Methodology Scientifically-driven (what may happen in the future?) Politically-driven (what we would like to happen?)

6. Population: from 514 to 530 inh. Population Change 2010-2030 by MULTIPOLES

7. GDP a.a.: 1,89 % 45 regions bellow 1,00 % GDP Growth 2010-2030 (Baseline) by MASST3

8. Trade by companies located in Germany (M€) EUROSTAT

9. Trade by companies located in Spain (M€)

10. Baseline Scenario: Key Territorial Trends towards 2030

11. Baseline Scenario: Key Territorial Trends towards 2030 Loosing Population

12. Baseline Scenario: Key Territorial Trends towards 2030 Loosing Population Loosing Population and growing less that EU average

13. Baseline Scenario: Key Territorial Trends towards 2030 Loosing Population Loosing Population and growing less that EU average Growing less that EU average

14. Baseline Scenario: Key Territorial Trends towards 2030 Increasing Polarisation on Global Gateways Growing more that EU average Loosing Population Loosing Population and growing less that EU average Growing less that EU average

15. European Territorial Strategy A : Promotion of Global Cities A

16. European Territorial Strategy B: Promotion of Networks of Cities B

17. European Territorial Strategy C: Promotion of Rural and Peripheral Regions C

19. Scenarios 2030, the Crisis Aftermath Roberto Camagni, POLIMI ESPON Territorial Scenarios and Vision for 2050 • 4rd December 2013 Vlinius

20. Summary of assumptions in the scenarios “Baseline scenario: No change in economic fundamentals and structure; no change in policies A: “Megas” scenario: Market driven scenario; budget reduced for cohesion policies; concentration of investments in European large cities. B: “Cities” scenario: Present welfare system reinforced; budget maintained for cohesion policies; concentration of investments in second rank cities. C: “Regions” scenario: Strong public welfare system; budget significantly increased for cohesion policies; concentration of investments in rural and cohesion area 20

21. Conclusions on aggregate GDP growth (2030) • New 12 countires grow more with respect to Old 15 countries, but less than before. • The B “Cities” scenario is the most expansionary: territorial capital is better exploited than in the other scenarios • New 12 countries grow less in the C “Regions” scenario. . 21

22. Conclusions on Regional Disparities in the Baseline Total regional disparities will increase In the past 20 years convergence among EU countries could more than offset increases in intra-national disparities This will not happen in the future (and is already visible during the present crisis) 22

23. Conclusions on National Disparities in the Baseline Eurostat MASST3 23

24. Total Disparities in Scenarios A “megas” C “regions” B “cities” Total Disparities “Cities” Scenario is the most cohesive! ”Megas” Scenario is less cohesive

25. Between Countries Disparities in the scenarios C “regions” A “megas” B “cities”

26. Theil Index by Scenario: Inside Countries Disparities B “cities” A “megas” C “regions” “Regions” scenario is the most cohesive, as expected, followed by the “Cities”

27. Sensitivity analysis on the Baseline Scenario Baseline is not meant to be the most likely scenario. A sensitivity analysis was run, changing single exogenous assumptions inside the MASST model: • Higher internal inflation rates in New 12 Countries with respect to Old 15:  higher control on wages, productivity  external competitiveness • Increased tax rates in “vicious” countries (too high public debt):  lower growth potential • Higher FDI increase in New 12 countries:  higher growth? Not proved: new investments generate higher imports)

28. Sensitivity analysis: lower inflation rates in NMCs ------ Dotted lines refer to the Baseline Scenario Total reg. disparities Between-country This lever has strong effects on growth rates in NMCs; new assunptions generate a strong decrease in inter-national disparities and a light increase in tot. disparities Within country disparities Note: Inflation in New 12 countries is lowered from 5% (baseline) to 3%. Baseline assumption for Old15 member countries is 2.5%.

29. Higher taxation in wide-public debt countries Total disparities Between-country Within-country This measure generates higher inter-national disparities ----- Baseline scenario

30. Scenarios 2050 Claus Spiekermann, S&W ESPON Territorial Scenarios and Vision for 2050 • 4rd December 2013 Vlinius

31. Exploratory Scenarios & Variants for 2010-2050

32. Baseline Scenario The European Funds Allocation across NUTS3 A (MEGAs) B (Cities) C (Regions) 1.0 % 0.5 0.25% of total EU Structural Funds

33. Scenario A: GDP per capita Difference to Baseline Scenario 2051 Difference to Baseline Scenario (%) 2051

34. Scenario B: GDP per capita Difference to Baseline Scenario 2051 Difference to Baseline Scenario (%) 2051

35. Scenario C: GDP per capita Difference to Baseline Scenario 2051 Difference to Baseline Scenario (%) 2051

36. Regional disparities reduced by funds allocation B2 C2

37. GDP growth depens on Framework Conditions B2 C2 C2 B2

38. Summary comparison Scenarios Policy Comparison

39. Participatory process towards Vision 2050 ValerieBiot, IGEAT ESPON Territorial Scenarios and Vision for 2050 • 4rd December 2013 Vlinius

40. Inspiring policy making by territorial foresight Scientifically-driven exercice VISION Scenarios Politically-driven process

41. Process towards the European Territorial Vision • Scientific input from the scenario exercise • Review of European and World strategies & policies • Interaction with ESPON MC • Interaction with Stakeholders

42. ESPON Monitoring Committee Workshops Kraków, 29-30 November 2011 Aalborg , 13-14 June 2012 Brussels, 28 September 2012 • Dublin,12-14 June 2013 Paphos, 4-6 December 2012

43. C A B

44. C A B

45. A European Territorial Vision 2050 Carlo Sessa, ISIS ESPON Territorial Scenarios and Vision for 2050 • 4rd December 2013 Vlinius

46. Outline of the European Territorial Vision • Values and policy paradigms • Europe in the World • Europe and its Neighborhoods • Changes for Europe as a whole • The Future of the European Territory • European Territorial Governance

47. 2050 Vision: summing up framework elements New borders of the EU: Deep and sustainable democracy in an enlarged EU and EFTA space Co-development with Neighbouring Countries (namely the Euro-Mediterranean) Technology induced changes: «everywhere connectivity» will change our social, learning and work, manufacturing, energy, daily habits and mobility towards more flexible time use and polycentric landscapes Demographic, economic and social changes: ageing everywhere in the world, except in Africa (especially SSA), deceleration of growth and trade of goods, more services & intangibles, «smartphone»-centred lifestyle, socio-ecological transition towards green and blue economy, within Europe, a more educated & mobile & Creative workforce and diversified jobs. Energy, Transport and climate changes: «low» but not «post-carbon» Europe; smart and sustainable transport; adaptation to climate change (mitigation is not enough).

48. 2050 Vision: summing up territorial key elements EU governance changes: EU economic recovery heading to more integration («out of need, not out of love»), but with a lean model Paradigm shifts: qualitative more than quantitative growth and productivity concepts, efficient spending on education, health and other territorial services (outcomes measured with beyond GDP indicators). Convergence of GDP is no more the «totem»/paradigm indicator, territorial efficiency/diversity and territorial cohesion objectives are the new totems. Polycentric development: More connectivity within and across different urban regions’ layers: large cities (less «Pentagon-centric» network), medium-to-small networks of cities, compact cities. Urban sprawl is halted. More «rurban regions», but also revitilized «bioregions»

49. 2050 Vision: summing up territorial key elements A new Cohesion Strategy: • Complementarity between EU territorial cohesion funds and other EU solidarity funds (to prevent financial crisis, to enable energy interdependence, EU border management solidarity). • Place-based approach in the different functional regions of Europe, within and across the national borders. • Territorial capital and European public goods agenda, based on high-level policy negotiation and agreed criteria of EU-wide relevance, place-based nature and verifiability (with “beyond GDP” impact assessment indicators)

50. Which EU Cohesion Policy after 2020? EU Cohesion Policy Reform after 2020 Purely «solidarity» approach (EU funding MS to compensate for extra-costs of implementing EU common priorities)? Place-based territorial approach (too complicated for the EU level to master)? Sectoral approach for funding & monitoring infrastructure (e.g. energy, transport) and social (e.g.education, health) investments? How to blend these approaches in the context of a more integrated EU? EU has to cope with global and territorial challenges, while closing the democratic gap between the EU and the European citizens