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NWS Activities and Perspective

NWS Activities and Perspective. Friends/Partners of Aviation Weather Forum Washington, DC July 24, 2013 Cyndie Abelman NOAA/NWS Aviation Weather Services. Here we are again…. Tough to wrap arms around the issue:

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NWS Activities and Perspective

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  1. NWS Activities and Perspective Friends/Partners of Aviation Weather Forum Washington, DC July 24, 2013 Cyndie Abelman NOAA/NWS Aviation Weather Services

  2. Here we are again…. • Tough to wrap arms around the issue: • Framing the problem and outcomes difficult for a usable study, since there are many aspects to quantifying value • Executing study under the current budget constraints • Engaged the NOAA Economist’s Office • Leverage experience of other NOAA Line Offices • One example is a study accomplished to quantify the benefit of hurricane forecasts • Use existing agreements/contracts • Continue to work with the FAA to collaborate on this question • Build on work conducted in support of WET • Start with TFM

  3. A few small steps… • National Aviation Meteorologists • Providing Decision Support Services at the ATCSCC • How do we measure the impact of their information? • Support is beyond Aviation Weather Statement • An example… • “Briefed Terminal/Severe Specialists that TS sw of ORD/MDW was decreasing and should not affect terminals. A few min later ORD TRACON called and asked for a program. Terminal specialist called airlines to get their opinion, which was in agreement with my briefing and TAF which did not have any TS. Terminal specialist then called TRACON and said that no program was needed. Terminal Specialist modeled up the ORD program and came up with the following statistics IF the program was put into action:”

  4. Example continued… • Program length = 2 hours • # Flights affected = 154 • # Passengers affected = ~15,400 (154 * 100 pass per plane) • Average Delay (per flight) = 21 min • Total Delay in NAS = 3,200 min or 53.3 hours • $$ Savings (per 2010 $7,800 per hour cost of delay) = $416,000

  5. A few small steps continued… • CWSU Forecast Verification Tool • Working with GSD to develop a web-based tool to capture CWSU on-site support • Looking to simplify and standardize current Forecast Accuracy Matrix used in CWSUs • User-relevant weather information and impacts should be captured and assessed • Web-based interface will allow easier input by CWSU mets • Automatically assessed so manual verification will no longer be necessary

  6. Challenges… • Missing piece… • When an event impacts the NAS, how much benefit/cost savings is provided when those events are forecast well and with sufficient lead time

  7. Questions?

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