SECURITY: WAR & TERRORISM

1. SECURITY: WAR & TERRORISM Victor Finkel

2. CONCEPTS

3. Just War Theory • “Jus ad bellum” - Right to go to War • Just Cause • Last Resort • Declared by Legitimate Authority • Right Intention • Reasonable Chance of Success • End Proportional to Means • “Jus in bello” – Right conduct within War • Discrimination • Who are legitimate targets of war? • Proportionality • How much force is appropriate? • Responsibility • Maintaining responsibility amongst soldiers • “Jus post bellum” • Compensation • Rehabilitation • Punishment • Standing in International Law? • Significance of International Law?

4. Golden Arches Peace Theory

5. No two countries that are both part of a major global supply chain, like Dell’s, will ever fight a war against each other as long as they are both part of the same global supply chain.”\ • Nations are unwilling to risk the employment generated by globalizastion, and don’t fight. Dell Theory of Conflict Prevention • Use to argue why economic ties are a positive; e.g. in sanctions debates • Examples: • India/Pakistan Nuclear Standoff • Taiwan/China • ?

6. Democracies almost never fight with each other – lack of any real wars between real democracies in 20th C • -Normative Reasons • -Structural Reasons Democratic Peace Theory • Argue that promoting democracy has broader benefits to protecting the security of existing democratic nations • ?democratic crusade? • Other explanations; e.g. political similarity • Just a matter of time – e.g. Iran (is this true democracy though?) • Promoting democracy can backfire – increase conflict

7. Mutually Assured Destruction vs Non-Proliferation • More Nukes = More Safety! • Presumes: • Bipolar world • Rational Actors • Perfect Detection • Perfect Lines of Communication • Clear operating protocols • How closely does this reflect reality? • Are you willing to gamble on a mistake?

8. War vs Insurgency War Insurgency “Guerilla Warfare” Iraq didn’t finish till 2010; even then not really. 10 times as many died in insurgency as in initial war • “Conventional Warfare” • US etc have massive technological superiority in this type of conflict • The initial campaign in Iraq 2003 was over in four weeks, 6 weeks after George Bush declared ‘victory’ • Libyan air defences destroyed within days by Tomohawk missile attacks

9. Terrorism • Key questions when considering counter-terrorism policies • What is the root cause of the terrorism? • Will this tactic work given the particular structure of the terrorist organisation? • Will this just make things worse? • Hearts and Minds of the people – terrorists do not live in a vacuum. They get support. How, Why?

10. TORTURE • Once ultimate taboo, torture seems to be back in fashion. • Used extensively in “War on Terror” in Guantanamo, Egypt (Extraordinary Rendition) etc • Key Questions • What does torture include? • Who could it be used on? • Does it work? • Where & how will it be used? Slippery slope? • Are there other ways to have gained this information?

11. PIRACY • Piracy rampant off coast of Somalia; near Suez canal – 97 attacks so far this year. Use small boats. • Risk/Reward Equation; need to hit both sides of each • Options • Naval Deployment • Arming Merchant Ships • Land Resolution; Invasion? • Case Study: Straights of Malacca • 40 attacks in 2004, only 2 in 2008 • Military: Air patrols, information sharing • Civil: End of conflict in Aceh, restoration of economy

12. Sovereignty In Favour Against Sovereignty is an artifact of history Should not be respected in cases where Clear Humanitarian Crisis Does not represent the Will of the People All other methods have been tried ? • Sovereign Right to govern necessary to prevent meddling by other countries • Sovereignty must be respected if nations are to be able to work together in International Frameworks • To maintain the good parts of the NORM, we must accept the bad (restrictions)

13. Multi-Lateralismvs Unilateralism • Unilateral vs. multilateral war: big issue in recent years – is it legitimate for and should countries intervene internationally on their own? Is there a certain mandate and legitimacy that comes with collective intervention? • Application in debates: aside from the obvious example of Iraq II, which was latterly unilateral, it often arises where it’s claimed that “we can’t wait for things to get any worse”. • Consider issues of precedent, slippery slope, role of the UN etc.

14. Debating about Invasions / Assassinations etc AFF NEG Throw mess around War is never clean or simple Civilians & Soldiers will die Responsibility on our hands Show how will mobilise opposition EVEN IF invasion works Show most likely scenario will be at best sub-optimal and most likely even worse than to start Undermines precedents of international law • Establish Imperative • Identify a tipping point (why we can’t wait) • Last Resort (all other options have been tried) • Provide clear mechanism • Outline a military strategy that will work • Initial conflict • Continuing conflict (insurgency?) • Include amnesty option for combatants / suggest won’t fight • Show path to a better future • Reconstruction efforts? • Who will take power afterwards? • Creates important positive precedents

15. Chain of Command • "An order requiring the performance of a military duty or act may be inferred to be lawful and it is disobeyed at the peril of the subordinate. This inference does not apply to a patently illegal order, such as one that directs the commission of a crime.” • "the justification for acts done pursuant to orders does not exist if the order was of such a nature that a man of ordinary sense and understanding would know it to be illegal."

16. Amnesties • How do you deal with the old guard who will opposed change? Consider “Golden Parachutes” of sorts.

17. Collective Security • Do we need to have our own armed forces?

18. Soft Power vs Hard Power • Carrot vs Stick! • Try both

19. Rational vs Irrational Actors

20. MILITARY TECHNOLOGY In particular looking at ‘game changers’

21. Combat Drones • Avoids risking life of soldier – good or bad? • Decision making • Deployment Duration • War Cost • Operator driven vs fully automated?

22. Satellite Weapons • Bad Idea • Space is a tricky place to keep clean

23. Bunker Busters • Bombs such as GBU-28; over 6 m over hardened concrete no worries • Nuclear versions – Earth Penetrating Weapons; up to 50 m • Not really going to get inside a mountain… but you might collapse some tunnels

24. Stealth • U.S. Stealth Bombers • F-117 • B-2 • (F-22) • Anti-Stealth Missile Systems • Russian S-300 and S-400 Missile System have limited anti-stealth capability • Potential sale to Iran stopped by latest round of sanctions

25. Anti-Ballistic Missiles • Types • Standard SM-3 (US) • Patriot Missile (broadly) • Efficacy • Limited to shorter range missiles, single warheads • i.e. might stop Iran or NK but won’t stop Russia • Controversy • Undermines MAD by weakening probability of enemy hit – implication is arms race again

26. TOPICS • That international institutions should use force to restrict the sale of small arms to African nations • That gun ownership should be restricted to law enforcement agencies • That we should rely on mutual assured destruction rather than on nuclear non-proliferation • That the UN should hire mercenaries for military operations • That we would create separate units for gays in the military • That we would hold soldiers accountable for war crimes committed while following orders • TTHW Invade Zimbabwe