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Major Ongoing Ground Motion Research Programs at PEER

Major Ongoing Ground Motion Research Programs at PEER. Yousef Bozorgnia , Ph.D., P.E. PEER, University of California, Berkeley. PEER is coordinating three major ground motion programs. N ext G eneration A ttenuation ( NGA ) relationships for Central & Eastern: NGA-East

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Major Ongoing Ground Motion Research Programs at PEER

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  1. Major Ongoing Ground Motion Research Programs at PEER Yousef Bozorgnia, Ph.D., P.E. PEER, University of California, Berkeley

  2. PEER is coordinating three major ground motion programs • Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) relationships for Central & Eastern: NGA-East • Follow-up studies of ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions: NGA-West 2 • Global GMPEs for Global Earthquake Model (GEM)

  3. NGA- East • Goal: To develop next generation Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) for Central & Eastern US • Stable Continental Regions (SCRs) • Sponsors: NRC, EPRI, USGS, DOE

  4. How the Project was Planned

  5. Brainstorming Technical Workshops in 2007-2008 • Two invitational and a pubic workshops • Compiled a list of key technical issues and R&D projects to be addressed in the course of NGA-East • The list was finalized through iterations • Consensus was to develop Next Generation Models rather than updating PSHA implementation of the existing models

  6. NGA-East Technical Working Groups

  7. Working Groups • Database: Compile a database of recorded motions from CEUS and other Stable Continental Regions (SCRs) • Geoetchnical Engineering: Linear and nonlinear site responses; reference rock condition,…

  8. Working Groups • Source-Site Path:Investigate geometrical spreading steeper than 1/R; Q; … • Ground Motion Simulation:Generate calibrated & validated simulated GMs for CEUS to be used by GMPE developers

  9. Working Groups • Sigma:To develop uncertainty models for GMPEs. It is a joint WG between NGA-East and NGA-West 2 • Vertical Ground Motion:To recommend development of vertical GMPEs for CEUS, possibly by taking advantage of empirical data for V/H, …

  10. Working Groups • GMPE Development • Next generation attenuation models for CEUS; applicable to magnitude 4-8, distances of 0-1000 km • 5% damped response spectra at periods 0.01 to 10 sec

  11. NGA-East is a SSHAC Level 3 Project • SSHAC (Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee) is a process: • To ensure fully transparent project • To ensure high quality research and final product • Consistent with other related nuclear projects by NRC, EPRI, DOE,…

  12. Project Schedule • Draft GMPEs to be ready for internal (SSHAC) review: • By September 30, 2012 • GMPEs to be ready for review by various stakeholders (including USGS): • By September 30, 2013 • Oct 1, 2013 - Sept 30, 2014: Sensitivity analysis, review, collect comments, adopt for various applications (including National Seismic Hazard Maps)

  13. Workshops… • We will have numerous workshops • As part of SSHAC process; and also to: • To collect feedback and comments from the community • To give information about the NGA-East project Next SSHAC workshop: Critical issues and data needs. On November 15-18, 2010 at UC Berkeley…please register at PEER web site (free of charge) and attend

  14. NGA-West 2 Project

  15. NGA-West 2 • Follow-up of NGA-West 1 to address the issues and topics that we did not have opportunity to address in the previous phase • And, update the NGA-West 1 models • Funding agencies: • California Earthquake Authority (CEA) • Caltrans • PG&E • USGS • FEMA

  16. NGA-West 2: Topics • Finalize directivity model(s) for NGA-West • Directionality issues for NGA-West • GMPEs for vertical ground motion Recall, NGA-West 1 models were for horizontal motion • Verification of NGA models for small magnitude data To reduce the conservatism of NGA-West 1 GMPEs for small magnitude data

  17. NGA-West 2: Topics • Verification of NGA models for recent moderate and large magnitude events worldwide • Compilation of the NGA-West 1 database was stopped in mid-2003 • The new expanded database is larger by 70% (3,500 versus 6,000 recordings) • 2004 Parkfied EQ, Wenchuan EQ (M 7.9), Italian EQs, Japanese Eqs, Baja EQ, … • The most comprehensive empirical database, including metadata, ever compiled for shallow crustal EQs in active tectonic regions

  18. NGA-West 2: Topics • Scaling NGA models for damping other than 5% • Development of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty models (joint with NGA-East) • Further development of site response in NGA • Current NGA-West 1 site amplification factors are inconsistent with NEHRP factors • Goal: To make NEHRP and NGA site amps consistent

  19. NGA-West 2: A Tentative Topic • (Tentative—now becoming serious) Development of GMPEs for maximum direction horizontal ground motion

  20. NGA-West 2 Project Duration • NGA-West 2 project will be completed by August 31, 2012

  21. Global GMPEs for Global Earthquake Model (GEM)

  22. Project • Goal: To select a suite of GMPEs for global and regional levels, by using a collaborative approach • Duration: 24 months • Team: 27 international experts from around the world

  23. Tasks • Task 1: Definition of a consistent strategy of modelling ground motion • consistency in model parameters • consistency in site parameters • Task 2: Compilation and critical review of GMPEs for: • Shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions • Stable continental regions • Subduction regions • Volcanic earthquakes

  24. Tasks • Task 3: Selection a set of Global GMPEs • Task 4: Inclusion of near-fault effects • Task 5: Database of Recorded Waveform • Task 6:Specifications for compilation of a global database of Soil Classification

  25. Summary • Three major ground motion programs are currently coordinated by PEER: • NGA-East • NGA-West 2 • GEM • Each program has several supporting technical working groups

  26. Summary • Many senior researchers, post-docs, graduate students, practitioners, end users, regulators, … are involved • Coordination of such large programs would have been extremely challenging if wanted to carry it out outside of a national research center

  27. THANK YOU!

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