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Major Ongoing Ground Motion Research Programs at PEER

PEER is coordinating three major ground motion research programs: NGA-East, NGA-West 2, and Global GMPEs for GEM. These programs aim to develop next generation ground motion prediction equations for different regions and to address key technical issues in ground motion research.

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Major Ongoing Ground Motion Research Programs at PEER

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  1. Major Ongoing Ground Motion Research Programs at PEER Yousef Bozorgnia, Ph.D., P.E. PEER, University of California, Berkeley

  2. PEER is coordinating three major ground motion programs • Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) relationships for Central & Eastern: NGA-East • Follow-up studies of ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions: NGA-West 2 • Global GMPEs for Global Earthquake Model (GEM)

  3. NGA- East • Goal: To develop next generation Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) for Central & Eastern US • Stable Continental Regions (SCRs) • Sponsors: NRC, EPRI, USGS, DOE

  4. How the Project was Planned

  5. Brainstorming Technical Workshops in 2007-2008 • Two invitational and a pubic workshops • Compiled a list of key technical issues and R&D projects to be addressed in the course of NGA-East • The list was finalized through iterations • Consensus was to develop Next Generation Models rather than updating PSHA implementation of the existing models

  6. NGA-East Technical Working Groups

  7. Working Groups • Database: Compile a database of recorded motions from CEUS and other Stable Continental Regions (SCRs) • Geoetchnical Engineering: Linear and nonlinear site responses; reference rock condition,…

  8. Working Groups • Source-Site Path:Investigate geometrical spreading steeper than 1/R; Q; … • Ground Motion Simulation:Generate calibrated & validated simulated GMs for CEUS to be used by GMPE developers

  9. Working Groups • Sigma:To develop uncertainty models for GMPEs. It is a joint WG between NGA-East and NGA-West 2 • Vertical Ground Motion:To recommend development of vertical GMPEs for CEUS, possibly by taking advantage of empirical data for V/H, …

  10. Working Groups • GMPE Development • Next generation attenuation models for CEUS; applicable to magnitude 4-8, distances of 0-1000 km • 5% damped response spectra at periods 0.01 to 10 sec

  11. NGA-East is a SSHAC Level 3 Project • SSHAC (Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee) is a process: • To ensure fully transparent project • To ensure high quality research and final product • Consistent with other related nuclear projects by NRC, EPRI, DOE,…

  12. Project Schedule • Draft GMPEs to be ready for internal (SSHAC) review: • By September 30, 2012 • GMPEs to be ready for review by various stakeholders (including USGS): • By September 30, 2013 • Oct 1, 2013 - Sept 30, 2014: Sensitivity analysis, review, collect comments, adopt for various applications (including National Seismic Hazard Maps)

  13. Workshops… • We will have numerous workshops • As part of SSHAC process; and also to: • To collect feedback and comments from the community • To give information about the NGA-East project Next SSHAC workshop: Critical issues and data needs. On November 15-18, 2010 at UC Berkeley…please register at PEER web site (free of charge) and attend

  14. NGA-West 2 Project

  15. NGA-West 2 • Follow-up of NGA-West 1 to address the issues and topics that we did not have opportunity to address in the previous phase • And, update the NGA-West 1 models • Funding agencies: • California Earthquake Authority (CEA) • Caltrans • PG&E • USGS • FEMA

  16. NGA-West 2: Topics • Finalize directivity model(s) for NGA-West • Directionality issues for NGA-West • GMPEs for vertical ground motion Recall, NGA-West 1 models were for horizontal motion • Verification of NGA models for small magnitude data To reduce the conservatism of NGA-West 1 GMPEs for small magnitude data

  17. NGA-West 2: Topics • Verification of NGA models for recent moderate and large magnitude events worldwide • Compilation of the NGA-West 1 database was stopped in mid-2003 • The new expanded database is larger by 70% (3,500 versus 6,000 recordings) • 2004 Parkfied EQ, Wenchuan EQ (M 7.9), Italian EQs, Japanese Eqs, Baja EQ, … • The most comprehensive empirical database, including metadata, ever compiled for shallow crustal EQs in active tectonic regions

  18. NGA-West 2: Topics • Scaling NGA models for damping other than 5% • Development of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty models (joint with NGA-East) • Further development of site response in NGA • Current NGA-West 1 site amplification factors are inconsistent with NEHRP factors • Goal: To make NEHRP and NGA site amps consistent

  19. NGA-West 2: A Tentative Topic • (Tentative—now becoming serious) Development of GMPEs for maximum direction horizontal ground motion

  20. NGA-West 2 Project Duration • NGA-West 2 project will be completed by August 31, 2012

  21. Global GMPEs for Global Earthquake Model (GEM)

  22. Project • Goal: To select a suite of GMPEs for global and regional levels, by using a collaborative approach • Duration: 24 months • Team: 27 international experts from around the world

  23. Tasks • Task 1: Definition of a consistent strategy of modelling ground motion • consistency in model parameters • consistency in site parameters • Task 2: Compilation and critical review of GMPEs for: • Shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions • Stable continental regions • Subduction regions • Volcanic earthquakes

  24. Tasks • Task 3: Selection a set of Global GMPEs • Task 4: Inclusion of near-fault effects • Task 5: Database of Recorded Waveform • Task 6:Specifications for compilation of a global database of Soil Classification

  25. Summary • Three major ground motion programs are currently coordinated by PEER: • NGA-East • NGA-West 2 • GEM • Each program has several supporting technical working groups

  26. Summary • Many senior researchers, post-docs, graduate students, practitioners, end users, regulators, … are involved • Coordination of such large programs would have been extremely challenging if wanted to carry it out outside of a national research center

  27. THANK YOU!

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