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The Future of Pastoralism in Africa

The Future of Pastoralism in Africa. Setting the scene March 2011, Addis. Doom and gloom? Or. Dynamic change and growth, with winners and losers?. Demand for meat. Land investment. Land grab. Trade ban. Conflict. Diaspora invest. Disease outbreak. Drought . urbanisation.

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The Future of Pastoralism in Africa

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  1. The Future of Pastoralism in Africa Setting the scene March 2011, Addis

  2. Doom and gloom? Or... Dynamic change and growth, with winners and losers?

  3. Demand for meat Land investment Land grab Trade ban Conflict Diaspora invest Disease outbreak Drought urbanisation

  4. Trends: 1922-2010, Somali region Ethiopia

  5. ‘Moving up or Moving Out’ scenario - trends in livestock ownership by wealth group over 60 years (1944-2004), Shinile zone, Somali Region

  6. History lessons • Sudden shocks: disease, drought, conflict, trade bans – resulting in longer-term system shifts • Long term pressures: population growth, enclosures and encroachments – reducing access • Exits and returns: continuous process, with relatively limited opportunity for diversification and return to pastoralism • Differentiation – commercialisation in larger herd units, but relatively few

  7. 1 4 6 2 5 3

  8. Questions?

  9. Programme Four parallel panel sessions ‘Scavengers’ of ideas and critical thoughts Bloggers for parallel sessions Open Space Plenaries Tuesday am – reflections by over 30 years Tuesday pm – ‘Question Time’ Wednesday am – Timelines and summing up Dinners – Mon/Tues Timeline analysis – Andy Comms - David Logistics – Leah and Yemi

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