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Public Budget Forum

Public Budget Forum. Date: Wednesday, October 23, 2013 Tuesday, November 5, 2013 Sponsored by: Vermont Agency of Administration Videoconferencing services provided by: Vermont Interactive Technologies. Moderated by : Jeb Spaulding Secretary of Administration Presentation by:

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Public Budget Forum

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  1. Public Budget Forum Date: Wednesday, October 23, 2013 Tuesday, November 5, 2013 Sponsored by: Vermont Agency of Administration Videoconferencing services provided by: Vermont Interactive Technologies

  2. Moderated by: Jeb Spaulding Secretary of Administration Presentation by: Jim Reardon Commissioner Department of Finance & Management VIT Live Streaming (without Chat feature): http//www.vitlink.org/streamingmedia/ vtcvitopen.php

  3. Fiscal Overview • Budget Basics • Where does the money come from? • Where does the money go? • FY15 and Beyond • The Budget Process • The Next GF Budget Gap • Final Thoughts - Questions

  4. Budget Basics • The budget incorporates both the spending and the revenue sides of the fiscal equation. • Vermont has a very good base revenue projection process. But revenue changes will always be difficult … • Annual spending changes seem marginal – but the base will continue to be looked at … • Budget growth is ultimately a function of economic activity and personal income growth • What is the New Normal – constant fiscal pressure but a more volatile funding environment

  5. Total Appropriations

  6. Basic Budget Dynamics • Total was $4.1B in FY08 now to $5.2B in FY14 • Average annual growth 3.6% since FY09 • General Fund (GF) is now 26% of total (down from 30%) • GF growth has averaged 3.4% since FY09 • Federal Funds now 35% of total (up from 30%) • Base Federal Fund growth has averaged 6.4% since FY09 • Education Fund – local spending decisions – state fund pressure • Transportation Fund – as system needs grow – constant revenue challenge Gross State Product avg. growth 1.3% (projected @ 3% in ’14)

  7. Thoughts • Healthcare will continue to suck up a lot of oxygen – FMAP, Exchange, ‘17 • Constrained fiscal environment • How to manage risk? Vision

  8. FY15 and Beyond • The Budget Process • The Next GF Budget Gap

  9. Budget Process • Governor goes first • FY14 BAA • Executive Recommendations will be presented to House Appropriations Committee (HAC) in Dec. • Next Revenue Update will be in Jan. • FY15 Budget will be presented in Jan. • Executive Budget Instructions • Governors Initiatives usually tied to budget • Achieve balance across funds and demands • All about the GF in the end

  10. FY13 came in better than expected 50% to property tax relief 25% to federal funds 25% to rainy day fund FY15 Demand on the GF is higher than forecast revenue growth

  11. FY 2015 GF GAP Analysis • $55M of one time resources balanced FY14 • Retirement obligations • Pay Act costs – roll out plus new contract • Other Human Service Demands • Education Finance expectations • Debt Service • Technology Funding • Build Reserves - $12 million in rainy day fund • Capital Demands

  12. Executive Thoughts • Administration will need to balance demands to revenues available • No New Broad Based Revenue • Governor’s Strategic Planning • Performance Focus • Federal Funding Risks • FY15 No Medicaid/GC Reserve

  13. Thank You for your Participation! • Questions? • This presentation will be available at: http://finance.vermont.gov • Answer our survey. • Go to http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/NW8528T

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