Measuring Wilderness Recreation Use: Counts & Visit/Visitor Characteristics

1. Measuring Wilderness Recreation Use: Counts & Visit/Visitor Characteristics Vita Wright and Brian Glaspell Research Application Program Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute Missoula, Montana

2. http://leopold.wilderness.net Social & Ecological Research Research Application

3. Today’s Objectives • Status of wilderness use estimation • New handbook of methods & systems • Components of a use estimation system • Discussion • Share knowledge of and experience with use estimation • Where do we go from here?

4. Reported Use Trends:How Accurate Are They? 200,000 Increase 175,000 482% 150,000 121% 125,000 Estimated # visitors1 100,000 403% 75,000 619% 50,000 184% 25,000 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 Year 1Based on USFS Recreation Visitor-Days as reported

5. Wilderness Use Estimation USFS Survey1 Results: Most managers indicated: • Limited resources available (funding, personnel, equipment, training) • Few systematic efforts to estimate use • Little confidence in existing data • Wide variation in experience with methods 1USFS Regions 4, 5, 8

6. Wilderness Use EstimationAll Agencies • Managers from 423 of 440 wildernesses were surveyed • 63% relied on “best guesses” to estimate visitor use -- McClaran and Cole. 1993.

7. Why Monitor Visitor Usein Wilderness? We need defensible numbers for: • Meeting law/policymandates (RPA1) • Use trends & use demand projections • LAC/VERP planning and baseline data • Recreation use allocation decisions • Field personnel allocation decisions • Budget requests & allocation • Agency reporting 1Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act (1974)

8. A Handbook of Methods and Systems http://leopold.wilderness.net/htopics/recuse.htm

9. System = Technique What Is a Wilderness Use Estimation System? • Objectives • Use characteristics of interest • Appropriate measurement techniques • Appropriate sampling strategy • Data analysis and summary

10. Handbook Organization • Components of a use estimation system • Objectives & use characteristics • Use estimation techniques • Sampling strategies for data collection • Step-by-step implementation of 10 major use estimation systems

11. Recreation Use Measurements • Method of travel • Group size • Activity • Length of stay • Distribution • Etc. • Counts • Visitor-hours • Recreation visitor days • Sociodemographics • Visitor knowledge • Visitor attitudes and preferences

12. Step 1: Clarify Objectives(See Handout – Step 1) • Why are you collecting visitor use information? • What question(s) are you trying to answer, and where? • How are you planning to use this information? • Who is interested in this information?

13. Examples of Objectives – Why? • Obtain baseline information • Track trends • Link recreation use with changes in ecological conditions • Allocate/prioritize resources • Analyze effects of closures & other administrative decisions

14. More Objectives – Why? • Identify commercial vs. noncommercial • Improve communication with visitors • Identify different visitor groups • Set social standards (planning frameworks)

15. Example Objectives Statement Where What • Managers at XXXX Wilderness want to know if the amount of use and sociodemographics have changed since the permit system was discontinued in 1985.

16. Example Objectives Statement Where What • Managers at XXXX Wilderness want to know if the amount of use and sociodemographics have changed since the permit system was discontinued in 1985. • Information will be gathered to estimate the amount, type, and distribution of use. • Sociodemographics include age, sex, income, residence, and # of previous visits. What What

17. Example Objectives Statement Where What • Managers at XXXX Wilderness want to know if the amount of use and sociodemographics have changed since the permit system was discontinued in 1985. • Information will be gathered to estimate the amount, type, and distribution of use. • Sociodemographics include age, sex, income, residence, and # of previous visits. • This information is needed for revision of the management plan. What What Why

18. Example Objectives Statement Where What • Managers at XXXX Wilderness want to know if the amount of use and sociodemographics have changed since the permit system was discontinued in 1985. • Information will be gathered to estimate the amount, type, and distribution of use. • Sociodemographics include age, sex, income, residence, and # of previous visits. • This information is needed for revision of the management plan. • Data collection will be considered part of existing personnel duties. It is anticipated that personnel can contribute 1-2 days/week to data collection. Minimal funds are available for additional equipment. What What Why How

19. Step 2: What Use Characteristics Do You Want To Measureto Meet Your Objectives? (See Handout – Checklist)

20. Visit Counts Individual visits Group visits Visitor Attributes Sociodemographics Past experience Knowledge Attitudes & preferences Visit Attributes Method of travel Group size Length of stay Activity Commercial services Temporal distribution Spatial distribution Wilderness conditions Summary-Use Statistics (Counts + visit attributes) Visitor-days (24 hrs) Recreation visitor-days (12) Overnight stays

21. Use Characteristics –Do they meet objectives? Counts Visit counts. Site-specific plans for high use sites; ignores visit attributes   Method of travel, group size, spatial & temporal distribution. Location & nature of impacts; field personnel allocation Commercial use.Necessity of commercial allocations; impacts; economies Sociodemographics. Visitor contact methods Past experience & knowledge. Resource protection & education strategies Attitudes & preferences. Anticipate response to management strategies Visits Visits Visitors Visitors Visitors

22. Use Characteristics –Do they meet objectives? Summary Recreation Visitor-Days. Can determine use by visit attribute (travel mode, activity); day/overnight use; total use Overnight counts. Campsite impacts & use; ignores day use Summary

23. Example Objectives Statement Managers want to know if the amount of use and sociodemographics have changed since the permit system was discontinued in 1985. • Information will be gathered to estimate the • amount, • type, and • distribution of use. Sociodemographics include: • age, • sex, • income, • residence, and • # of previous visits. Visitors Counts Visits

24. Step 3: WhichMeasurement TechniquesMeet Your Needs?

25. Visual Observation External, internal, roaming Mechanical Counters Registration Categories of Use Estimation Techniques Indirect Estimation Permits Surveys

26. Summary of Techniques The most appropriate technique provides: Data that meet objectives Minimal visitor burden Acceptable cost Desired accuracy

27. System = Technique What Is a Wilderness Use Estimation System? • Objectives • Use characteristics • Measurement techniques • Sampling strategy • Data analysis and summary

28. Step 4:Design a Sampling Plan (I.e. Strategy for Data Collection)

29. Why Sample?Efficiency Sampling = studying a part to gain information about the whole • Less time and cost than a census of the entire population • Obtain a sample that is representative of the population

30. Why Statistics? So we can sample rather than census the population. • Helps us design projects that meet our accuracy goals. • Helps us understand what we can and can’t say about our population, from our data.

31. Confidence in Numbers(Based on Random Sampling) • Discuss results in probability terms: “I am 95% confident that between June 1 and September 30, there were between 5,250 and 5,340 visits to the XXX Wilderness.” • Right 19 of 20 times

32. Eliminating Bias… Bias = some units represented more in sample than population • Convenience/judgment sampling based on assumptions/guesses may not represent the population • Random sampling protect against bias represent the population

33. Steps Before Sampling • Define the population • Define the sampling unit • Determine appropriate sample size

34. Population All members of the group that you want to learn about Group: All visitors Day users Packstock users Bounds: Entire Wilderness Local population Summer dates Sampling unit = subset

35. Sample Size: How many days to sample?How many people to sample?

36. How many days to sample?How many people to sample? Based on: • Variability in measured characteristic; obtained from a previously collected data or preliminary survey • How precise do you want your sample estimate to be? • Cost:available personnel & budget Precision vs. cost

37. Measures of Variability • Standard deviation: How are the data spread around the average? Used to calculate sample size

38. Measures of Variability • Standard deviation: How are the data spread around the average? Used to calculate sample size • Standard error: How close is the sample mean to the truth (i.e., population mean)? Standard deviation & sample size Used to calculate confidence interval

39. Sampling Design Identifies the subset of the population to be included in the sample, and dictates how, when, and where to sample

40. Sampling Design Identifies the subset of the population to be included in the sample, and dictates how, when, and where to sample • The most efficient sampling design yields: - Same sample size; smaller standard error

41. Sampling Design Identifies the subset of the population to be included in the sample, and dictates how, when, and where to sample • The most efficient sampling design yields: - Same sample size; smaller standard error - Smaller sample size; same standard error Stats Analysts Can Help!

42. Sampling Designs • Simple random sampling • Systematic sampling • Stratified sampling - proportional • Stratified sampling - disproportional

43. Simple Random Sampling • Sample selection is entirely due to chance; use random number table (in handbook) • Example: 20 of 112 days • Advantage: requires no prior knowledge of population • Disadvantages: hard/expensive to implement; not statistically efficient

44. Systematic Sampling • Random start, but sample at predetermined intervals • Example: 112/20 = every 5.6 days • Advantage: distributes sampling effort over population • Disadvantage: susceptible to patterns

45. Stratified SamplingProportional • Divides the population into two or more strata (e.g., weekdays vs. weekends) • Example: 20 = 14 wk.days + 6 wk.ends • Advantage: decreases sampling error; different sample sizes for strata • Disadvantage: need defined strata & knowledge of proportion of population in each stratum for calculations

46. Stratified SamplingDisproportional • Divides the population into two or more strata (e.g., weekdays vs. weekends) • Example: 20 = 10 wk.days + 10 wk.ends • Advantage: decreases sampling error; different sample sizes for strata • Disadvantage: need defined strata & knowledge of proportion of population in each stratum for calculations

47. Comparison - # Users/Day

48. Comparison - # Users/Day

49. Step 5: Entering and Analyzing Data • What tools do you have? Software: Excel, Access, SPSS, SPLUS, others? Stats Analysts Can Help!

50. System = Technique What Is a Wilderness Use Estimation System? • Objectives • Use characteristics of interest • Appropriate measurement techniques • Appropriate sampling strategy • Data analysis and summary