Research Methods

1. Research Methods Leadership 389

3. Measuring the Weight of Smoke • Sometimes things that seem immeasurable can be measured well • It often takes creativity and a leap of faith to figure out how to measure some things

4. Outline • How do we Know? • Scientific Method • Four Canons of Science • Induction and Deduction • Our Bias to Prove • Hands-on Activity

5. Methods of Acquiring Knowledge • Non-scientific • Intuition • Authority • Logic • Observation • Scientific • Science 

6. Intuition • An implicit understanding of a phenomenon that a person develops in the absence of any formal training • Common sense or folk wisdom • Problem with intuitive approach • No method for determining accurate vs inaccurate knowledge • Cognitive and motivational biases affect perception • Intuition in science • Hypotheses derived from “hunches”

7. Authority • A basis for acceptance of information because it is acquired from a highly respected source • Problem with authority: • Information may be inaccurate • Authority in science: • Problem identification/hypothesis building • Study design • Data interpretation

8. Logic • The acquisition of knowledge through reasoning • Problem with logic: • Often doesn’t provide accurate information • The original assumption may be incorrect • Logic in science: • Logic is vital to science! • Developing hypotheses • Developing method of testing hypotheses

9. Observation • The acquisition of knowledge through experience • Problem with observation • Cognitive and motivational biases affect perception • Memory is not infallible • Observation in science • Science based on observation • 

10. Science "There is no institution in the modern world more prestigious than science" • A method or logic of inquiry • The best method for acquiring knowledge • Method can be broken down into a series of steps

11. Scientific Method • 1) Identifying the problem and forming a hypothesis • Suggestion accounts for hearing satanic messages • 2) Designing the experiment • 3 groups (given different suggestion) listen to 3 records played backwards and record responses • 3) Conducting the experiment • Participants receive 1of 3 instruction sets and then listen to 3 tapes.

12. Scientific Method • 4) Testing the hypothesis • 5) Communicating the research results • Published article in The Journal of Psychology

13. Four Canons of Science • Determinism • Empiricism • Parsimony • Testability

14. Determinism • The assumption that there is a lawfulness in nature. • Science is “a search for order, for uniformities, for lawful relations among the events in nature”- Skinner • Naïve determinists

15. Cab Problem • Cab involved in hit-and-run • 1) 85% of cabs in the city are Green, 15% are Blue • 2) A witness identified cab as blue Testing revealed the witness identified colors of cabs correctly 80% of the time (incorrectly 20%) • What is the probability that the cab in the accident was blue?

16. Cab Problem • Cab involved in hit-and-run • 1) Although the 2 companies are roughly equal in size, 85% of cab accidents in the city involve green cabs and 15% involve blue cabs • 2) A witness identified cab as blue Testing revealed the witness identified colors of cabs correctly 80% of the time (incorrectly 20%) • What is the probability that the cab in the accident was blue?

17. Determinism • Close corollary to principle of determinism: Theories • Theory: • Statement about causal relation between 2 or more variables • Hypothesis • Similar to theories but more limited in scope and less empirical support

18. Science is Empirical • To be empirical is to make observations • Getting it straight from the horse’s mouth • Philosophers debating the number of teeth a horse should have • Biological philosopher: As member of family Equidae, they should, like a zebra, have 34. • Theological philosopher: A scripturally unclean grazer, should have less than a cow: about 28 teeth • Empirical philosopher: If we want to know how many teeth it has, let’s open its mouth and count.

19. Science is Empirical • Relatively modern assumption • Galileo began a new science based on observation and experimentation • Galileo’s main work showed a “passionate fight against any kind of dogma based on authority”- Einstein

20. Parsimony

21. Parsimony • A.K.A. Occam’s Razor • Entities must not be multiplied beyond what is necessary • A problem must be stated in its basic and simplest terms • AKA: Law of parsimony • The simplest explanation should be preferred to more complex explanations • That theory which makes the fewest number of assumptions is to be preferred over those which require a larger number of assumptions. • Example: Crop circles • Many adoptions of Occam’s razor • Morgan’s canon • Clever Hans

22. Testability • Theories should be testable • Falsifiability • Karl Popper • ‘all swans are white’ • One can always support this point by pointing to more white examples • A better test would be to find a black one • (Ironically, black swans were later discovered in Australia! )

23. Scientists use logic to induce and deduce valid conclusions Induction Moving from data to a general theory of concept Specific to general Deduction Moving from a theory to particular statements concerning data General to specific Data Deduction Induction Theory Induction and Deduction

24. T E 4 7 Hypothesis Testing • Wason Selection task • If a card has a vowel on one side, then it has an even number on the other side

25. 2 5 A U Hypothesis Testing • Wason Selection task • If a card has a vowel on one side, then it has an even number on the other side T E 4 7

26. Hypothesis Testing • Wason Selection task • If a card has a vowel on one side, then it has an even number on the other side T E 4 7 2 5 A U

27. Our Bias to “Prove” • Pervasive confirmatory biases • Positive test bias or hypothesis confirmation bias • EX: Snyder and Swann (1978) •Interview person • Is he/she introvert/extrovert • Given list of Qs to ask • some about being introverted (in what situation do you wish you could be more outgoing?) • some about being extroverted (what would you do to liven up a party

29. Behavioral Confirmation • Causing people to act the way you expect • Word, Zanna & Cooper (1974) • White interviewees perform “better” • White interviewers behave differently towards white and black interviewees • Trained interviewers to use “White” or “Black” style • White interviewees who get “White” style do better

30. Hands-On Activity: Galileo’s Dice • Comparing different ways of knowing • Answer the questions gamblers once asked Galileo: • 400 years ago gamblers played game with 3 standard dice. Most believed the probability of rolling a 9 was the same as rolling a 10. However, some had a gut intuition that 10 was a little more likely and their casual observations supported this. Those who believed the probability was equal said that there are six combinations of number that total nine (126, 135 144, 225, 234, 333) and there are 6 combinations that total 10 (136, 145, 226, 235, 244, 334). So, they approached an authority for the answer: Galileo. I would like you to approach this problem only using one particular way of knowing.

31. Three ways of knowing • Group 1: The Logical Counter of Ways • Group 2: The Logical Expected Evaluators • Group 3 and 4: The Empiricists

32. Questions • Which roll do you think is most likely, a 9 or a 10? 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 not at all extremely • How confident are you of this answer? • What is your best guess as to the exact probability of rolling a 9 with a fair set of 3 dice? What about 10? How confident are you in this set of guesses?