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May 13, 2010

SCMP Public Opinion Survey. Political Reform. May 13, 2010. Contents. Page No. Research Background and Objectives 3-4 Overview of Methodology 5-8 Key Findings 9-11 Election by Universal Suffrage - Desired Timing 12-14

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May 13, 2010

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  1. SCMP Public Opinion Survey Political Reform May 13, 2010 Page 1

  2. Contents Page No. • Research Background and Objectives 3-4 • Overview of Methodology 5-8 • Key Findings 9-11 • Election by Universal Suffrage- Desired Timing 12-14 • Support for Government Proposal 15-21 • Support for AUS Proposal 22-23 • Functional Constituency Seats 24-27 • LegCo By-Elections Voting 28-29 Page 2

  3. Research Background and Objectives Page 3

  4. Research Background and Objectives • The SCMP/TNS Opinion Leader Surveys are designed to reflect the perception of Hong Kong people towards key socio-economic and public policy issues. • In May, TNS conducted an opinion poll on Political Reform in Hong Kong. Page 4

  5. Overview of Methodology Page 5

  6. Sample Composition Total Sample 513 51% Gender Male 1000 303 49% Female 487 Age 389 39% 25-34 35-44 410 41% 45+ 201 20% 26% SCMP Readership Yesterday Reader 262 979 98% Business Executives BDM 34% Opinion Leaders 343 Overview of Methodology Findings in the report are based on weighted data. Data have been weighted based on gender and age. Page 6

  7. Overview of Methodology Interviewing approach Computer-Assisted Web Interviewing via Lightspeed Research Hong Kong Panel Fieldwork period May 3 – May 10, 2010 Geographic coverage Hong Kong Average interview length 6 minutes Total sample size n=1000* Target respondents Opinion leaders and business decision-makers aged 25+ years with average monthly household income HKD40,000 or above. *Maximum Sampling Error: +3.1% at 95% confidence level Page 7

  8. Business Decision Makers / Opinion Leaders • The sample is comprised of respondents who are: • Strategic business decision makers with purchase decision making responsibility on behalf of their company, or • Opinion leaders who have engaged in one or more of the following: • Addressed a conference or public meeting • Formulated a strategic business plan • Taken executive decisions which affect own organisation's operations in other countries • Had an article or paper published • Worked on international business strategies • Lobbied or advised members of national or local government • Sat on an industrial / professional committee • Been interviewed on TV, radio, or by the press Page 8

  9. Key Findings Page 9

  10. Key Findings • Three quarters of the opinion leaders surveyed say that the Chief Executive should be chosen by universal suffrage no later than 2017. Among them, opinion is evenly divided on whether that should be 2012 or 2017. Similarly, over 70% say that all members of the Legco should be elected directly by 2016 – two in five say it should happen by 2012 while a third say 2016. • While the govt’s proposal fails to win a majority, there are more in favour (two in five) than against (just over a quarter) with the rest undecided. • Among supporters of the proposal, a slightly higher proportion (46% vs 40%) say they would not vote for pan-democratic candidates in the 2012 Legislative Council election if the pan-democratic camp vetoes the government proposal for the 2012 elections. Among those opposing the govt proposal, a marginally higher number (43% vs 39%) would vote for the pan-democrats if they support the government proposal. • The government can increase support for its proposal by taking the following steps with over 60% of the opinion leaders say each of these steps would increase their support for the proposal. • A pledge by the central government to abolish functional constituency seats in the Legislative Council. • The central government’s reaffirmation of the goal of electing the chief executive and all Legco members by universal suffrage in 2017 and 2020 respectively. • A pledge by the central or Hong Kong government to take incremental steps in 2016 towards universal suffrage, such as increasing the proportion of directly elected seats in the Legco. • Over two in five say that the Central Govt should be the one making concessions to get the proposal passed, with another fifth saying the HK govt should make concessions. One in four feel it is the Pan-Democrats who should give in. • Should the pan-democrats would veto the government proposal if the administration fails to give a roadmap for universal suffrage? Opinion is divided on that question with marginally more people saying (42% vs 39%) that they would be within their rights to do so. • The proposal from the Alliance for Universal Suffrage gets a similar response as the govt proposal – roughly two in five for and just under a third against. Page 10

  11. Key Findings Functional Constituency Seats • On the question of whether functional constituency seats should be retained after universal suffrage, the vote is clearly against it with over half saying no and only a third in favour. A majority (55%) also say that these seats are not consistent with the concept of universal suffrage, while just under a third feel there is not necessarily a contradiction there. • Expanding the electorate (74%) and “One person two votes” (56%) are felt to be measures that would make functional constituency more democratic while hardly anyone feels creating more functional constituencies is a solution to make them more democratic. • About half the respondents plan to vote in the Legco by-elections on the 16th May with 30% saying they will not vote and the rest as yet undecided. Among those intending to vote, the candidates likely to garner the most votes are those from the Civic Party or the League of Social Democrats (63%). A fifth are undecided as to whom they’d vote for. Page 11

  12. Election by Universal Suffrage- Desired Timing Page 12

  13. Election of Chief Executive by Universal Suffrage Q When should the chief executive be elected by universal suffrage? Base: All respondents (n=1000) Page 13 Q1

  14. Election of Members of Legislative Council by Universal Suffrage Q When should all members of the Legislative Council be elected by universal suffrage? Base: All respondents(n=1000) Page 14 Q2

  15. Support for Government Proposal The government has proposed that the membership of the Election Committee which picks the chief executive in 2012 be enlarged by half to 1,200, and that 10 extra Legco seats be created - five directly elected and five functional constituency seats whose representatives district councilors would elect. A candidate would be able to run in the chief executive election if he receives 150 nominations. The government also said it would consider scrapping appointed seats on district councils after the reform proposal is passed. Page 15

  16. Support for Government Proposal Q Do you support the government proposal for the election of chief executive and Legislative Council in 2012? Base: All respondents(n=1000) Page 16 Q3

  17. Supporters of Proposal – Vote for Pan Democratic Candidates Would you vote for pan-democratic candidates in your constituency in the 2012 Legislative Council election if the pan-democratic camp vetoes the government proposal for the 2012 elections? Q Base: All respondents who support or strongly support the proposal(n=425) Base: All respondents(n=1000) Page 17 Q3 & Q5

  18. Opposers of Proposal – Vote for Pan Democratic Candidates Q Would you vote for pan-democratic candidates in your constituency in the 2012 Legislative Council election if the pan-democratic camp supports the government proposal for the 2012 elections? Base: All respondents who oppose or strongly oppose the proposal(n=285) Base: All respondents(n=1000) Page 18 Q3 & Q6

  19. Changes Needed to Win Support Which improvements to the government proposal are needed to win your support for the package? Q % ranking item in top 3 Base: All respondents who oppose, strongly oppose, neither support nor oppose or no comment to the proposal (n=575) Page 19 Q4

  20. Who Should Make Concessions to Pass Govt Proposal Q Which party should make more concessions to ensure the passage of the government proposal for the 2012 elections? Base: All respondents(n=1000) Page 20 Q7

  21. Should Pan-democrats Veto Proposal If No Roadmap Provided? Q Should the pan-democratic camp veto the government proposal for the 2012 elections if the administration fails to give a roadmap for universal suffrage? Base: All respondents(n=1000) Page 21 Q8

  22. Support for AUS Proposal The Alliance for Universal Suffrage, which is made up of 13 pan-democratic groups, has proposed a 1,200-strong nominating committee put forward candidates for chief executive election in 2017, with any candidates who obtain 100 nominations eligible to run for election. For the Legco election in 2020, the number of seats would increase to 100. Half of the seats would be elected by voters in various geographical constituencies under the proportional representation system. The rest of the seats would be elected by all voters in Hong Kong under the proportional representation system, with the whole city as one constituency. Page 22

  23. Support for AUS Proposal Q Do you agree with the alliance’s proposal? Base: All respondents(n=1000) Page 23 Q9

  24. Functional Constituency Seats Page 24

  25. Retention of Functional Constituency Seats After Universal Suffrage Do you agree functional constituency seats in the Legislative Council should be retained in 2020 when the legislature is elected by universal suffrage? Q Base: All respondents(n=1000) Page 25 Q10

  26. Are Functional Constituencies Consistent with Universal Suffrage? Q Do you agree functional constituencies are consistent with universal suffrage? Base: All respondents(n=1000) Page 26 Q12

  27. Making Functional Constituencies More Democratic - Options Q Do you agree the following steps to make functional constituencies more democratic? Base: All respondents agree to retain constituency seats in Q10 (n=317) Page 27 Q11

  28. LegCo By-Elections Voting Page 28

  29. Voting Intentions Q Do you plan to vote in the Legislative Council by-election on May 16? Base: All respondents planning to vote on 16-May (n=472) Base: All respondents(n=1000) Page 29 Q13 & Q14

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