A Half-day Workshop on “Stress Testing” (A Tool of Risk Management) Held at Learning Resource Centre, SBP November 23, 2

1. A Half-day Workshop on “Stress Testing” (A Tool of Risk Management) Held at Learning Resource Centre, SBP November 23, 2006 Conducted by: Mr. Muhammad Akhtar Javed, Joint Director-BSD Ms. Rizwana Rifat, Assistant Director-BSD STATE BANK OF PAKISTAN

2. SBP Outline • Stress Testing • Meaning of Stress Testing • Why need stress Testing • Uses of Stress Testing • Main Guidelines Underpinning Sound Stress Testing by Institutions • Relevance Depending on Size and Sophistication of Institutions • Stress Testing Coverage • Stress Testing Calibration • Frequency and Time Horizon of Stress Testing • Data Quality and IT Systems

3. SBP Outline – Continued... • Main Guidelines ….. • Role of Management Body and Senior Management • Review and Update of Stress Testing Methodology • Stress Testing Guidelines by Risk Categories • Macroeconomic Stress Tests • Market Risk • Credit Risk • Liquidity Risk • Consideration for Other Risk Categories

4. SBP Outline – Continued... • Stress Testing Guidelines Issued by SBP • Scope • Level of Shocks • Methodology • Interest Rate Risk • Exchange Credit • Equity • Liquidity

5. SBP Outline – Continued... • Stress Testing Guidelines Issued by SBP…. • Reporting Format • What is required from Banks • Road to future • Stress Test Results • International Experiences

6. SBP Stress Testing- Meaning As defined by the BIS, stress testing is a risk management technique used to evaluate the potential effects on an institution’s financial condition of a specific event and/or movement in a set of financial variables. The traditional focus of stress testing relates to exceptional but plausible events.

7. SBP Why Need Stress Tests Stress testing is : • Risk management tool • Helps in assessment of the risks • Quantifies the resilience towards shock events • Helps manage the shock results • Required by the Capital Directive…Basel II • rigorous program of stress testing • periodic stress tests of the credit risk concentrations • the realization of collateral in stressed situations • stress testing processes for use in the assessment of its capital adequacy…. etc.

8. SBP Uses of Stress Testing • As a diagnostic tool to improve the institution’s understanding of its risk profile. Earnings are a part of an institution’s overall capital planning and are the first line of defense to absorb losses. Therefore, institutions should, in the context of their internal capital adequacy assessment process (ICAAP), assess how their earnings are affected by stress situations. • As a forward looking tools Stress testing may be used to assess the adequacy of internal capital.

9. SBP Types of Stress Testing Stress testing could generally fall within the following two categories and concepts: scenario tests and sensitivity analyses. • Sensitivity analyses are generally less complex to carry out since they assess the impact on an institution's financial condition of a move in one particular risk factor, the source of the shock not being identified. • Whereas scenario tests tend to consider the impact of simultaneous moves in a number of risk factors, the stress event being well defined.

10. SBP Main Guidelines Underpinning Sound Stress Testing by Institutions • Relevance depending on the size and sophistication of institutions • As a general rule, sophisticated institutions should use a combination of both scenario tests and sensitivity analysis whereas less complex institutions may develop a less technically demanding approach. • Scenarios with greater coverage across product lines or geographical regions, and considering secondary effects, may be rather employed by large and complex institutions.

11. SBP Main Guidelines Underpinning Sound Stress Testing by Institutions… • Stress testing coverage • Institutions should identify their material risks. • The main areas which institutions have considerable exposure to (e.g. where they are an active market maker) should be the ones most thoroughly captured under a stress testing framework. Institutions should thus determine all material risks that can be subject to stress testing. • The identification of material risks could stem from: • a comprehensive review by institutions of the nature and composition of their portfolios. • a review of the external environment in which institutions are operating with a view to assessing the extent that this could affect their financial condition.

12. SBP Main Guidelines Underpinning Sound Stress Testing by Institutions… • Stress testing calibration • Based upon the identification of material risks, institutions should derive material risk factors that should be subject to stress testing. • Institutions should first identify their points of vulnerability in order to stress the relevant risk factors that may affect their earnings/profitability or solvency. • With this in mind, an analysis of past losses can provide valuable information. • The number of risk factors to be stressed should depend on the complexity of the portfolio and the risks the institution is exposed to.

13. SBP Main Guidelines Underpinning Sound Stress Testing by Institutions… • Frequency and time horizon of stress testing • the nature of the risk factors captured under the stress testing framework, and in particular their volatility. • the techniques used by institutions while performing stress tests. • significant changes in the external environment or in the risk profile of institutions. • the availability of the external data required to conduct the stress tests (for instance, data necessary to perform macroeconomic stress tests).

14. SBP Main Guidelines Underpinning Sound Stress Testing by Institutions… • Frequency and time horizon of stress testing • Institutions should determine the time horizon of stress testing in accordance with the maturity and liquidity of the positions stressed. • Under specific circumstances, supervisors may require institutions to perform ad hoc stress tests at a specific point in time.

15. SBP Main Guidelines Underpinning Sound Stress Testing by Institutions… • Data quality and IT systems • Institutions should use accurate, complete, appropriate and • representative data when performing stress tests and the IT • resources should be commensurate with the complexity of the • techniques and the coverage of stress tests performed by • institutions

16. SBP Main Guidelines Underpinning Sound Stress Testing by Institutions… • Role of the management body and senior management; reporting and interpretation of stress testing results • The management body has the ultimate responsibility for the overall stress testing framework. Where appropriate the management body can delegate certain aspects of this framework to specific risk committees or senior management, keeping the effective oversight. • The stress testing process should be an integral part of an institution’s risk management framework, with clear reporting lines and communication in an understandable format.

17. SBP Main Guidelines Underpinning Sound Stress Testing by Institutions… • Review and update of stress testing methodology • Institutions should consider periodically whether stress tests are still adequate. In particular, institutions should ensure that assumptions regarding the risk profile and the external environment are still valid over time . • This assessment should cover in particular: • the scope of exposures captured under the stress testing process, • · the validity of the assumptions, • · the adequacy of the management information system,

18. SBP Main Guidelines Underpinning Sound Stress Testing by Institutions… • Review and update of stress testing methodology • · the integration into the institution’s management processes, including the clarity of reporting lines, • · the approval policy of the stress testing process (including in case of changes), • · the reliability, accuracy and completeness of data incorporated into the stress testing process, and • · the quality of the documentation of the stress testing process.

19. SBP Stress testing guidelines by risk categories • Macroeconomic stress tests • In doing so, an institution should consider the effects of macroeconomic factors on its capital and whether it could affect its strategic plans. • Market Risk • Interest rate • Exchange rate • Equity Price • Credit risk stress testing • Concentration Risk • Liquidity risk

20. SBP Considerations for other risk categories • If the level of risk of a specific category is material enough to make the institution vulnerable with respect to this risk, the institution has to take the risk into account when assessing the adequacy of its internal capital. However, some risks are more qualitative in nature and therefore cannot be measured exactly. • some kinds of operational risk (e.g. legislative risk), • reputational risk or strategic risk.

21. Stress Testing Guidelines Issued by SBP

22. SBP Scope of Stress Test • Limited to “Simple Sensitivity Analysis” • Risk factors identified • Interest rate • Non-performing loans • Forced sale value of collateral • Stock prices • Foreign exchange rate • For liquidity risk, shock has been given to the liquid liabilities (deposits and borrowings)

23. SBP Level of Shocks

24. SBP Methodology • Interest Rate Risk • Duration GAP analysis • Estimate the MV of all the RSA and RSL to arrive at market value of equity • Calculate the duration of all the assets and liabilities • Arrive at the weighted average duration of assets and liabilities • Calculate duration GAP and estimate the changes in the economic value of equity along different interest rate changes • Calculate surplus (deficit) on off-balance sheet items along different interest rate changes • Estimate the impact of the net change (on-balance sheet plus off-balance sheet) in the economic value of equity on the capital adequacy ratio

25. SBP Methodology • Exchange Rate Risk • Simple shocks to Net Foreign Currency Position • Overall net open position is to be measured by aggregating the sum of net short positions or sum of net long positions, whichever is greater irrespective of sign • The impact of the respective shocks will be calibrated in terms of capital adequacy ratio

26. SBP Methodology • Credit Risk • Involves three types of shocks • Increase in NPLs by 5%, 10% and 20% and directly downgraded to loss category • Shift in NPLs categories by 50%, 80% and 10% • Fall in the forced sale value of mortgaged collateral by 10%, 20% and 40% • Tax-adjusted impact of each scenario will be calibrated in capital adequacy ratio

27. SBP Methodology • Equity Price Risk • Simple shocks to the market value of listed shares, NIT units and mutual funds etc. by 10%, 20% and 40% • The impact of resultant loss will be calibrated in the CAR

28. SBP Methodology • Liquidity Risk • Simple shocks to the liquid liabilities (deposits and borrowings) • Impact is calibrated in liquid assets to liquid liabilities ratio • Comfortable level of ratio after shock is considered at 30%

29. SBP Reporting Format Please see the Reporting Format on the Following Link: Stress Testing Reporting Format

30. SBP What’s Required from Banks and DFIs • Establishing an organizational set-up for regular stress testing • Carrying out and submit to SBP stress test on half-yearly basis in line with these guidelines

31. SBP Road to Future • With the increasing know how and availability of more data the model will over time undergo further refinement

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34. International Experiences • Adopted by Europe, • America and • Many Emerging Economies A survey conducted on some of these countries reveals that these countries believe stress testing as a tool • Interest rates are the most common theme among the sensitivity stress tests reported on the census. • Nearly all banks responded that stress tests are used as a tool for risk managers to understand the firm’s risk profile and communicate that information to senior management.

35. International Experiences… • Banks use stress test limits in combination with other limits, on notional position size, position sensitivity (ie delta), or VaR. • a majority of the reporting banks have acted on the results of stress tests. • Three-quarters of global dealer banks and just over half of internationally active banks answered that stress tests have led to the unwinding or hedging of a position. • All banks reported that stress tests covered the trading book, while two-thirds reported that stress tests also covered the banking book. • The design of stress tests draws heavily on historical events, even for hypothetical scenarios.

36. Thank You