Status of Technical Analysis

1. Status of Technical Analysis Technical Oversight Committee September 14, 2006

2. Technical Analysis Status Report • WRAP 2003-08 Strategic Plan identifies Fall 2006 to complete regional analyses supporting haze planning • Focus now: • Planning process • Reasonable progress demonstration • Control strategy analysis • Technical work & continuous improvement have been ongoing since 2000

3. Technical Analysis Results • WRAP analyses: • Comprehensive & complete emissions inventories • Monitoring data analysis for all western Class I areas • Regional photochemical aerosol modeling • Multiple source apportionment methods • Results summarized & available for planning • 5 most important things to know – • Next steps

4. #1 – 2018 base case visibility projections are significantly shy of the “Uniform Rate of Progress”

5. Regional Haze Planning • Rule promulgated in 1999, much work completed since • Requires states to set RPGs based on 4 statutory factors and consideration of a Uniform Rate of Progress • URP = 20% reduction in manmade haze (dv) per planning period (10 years) • URP heavily dependent on: • Assumptions regarding future (2064) natural conditions • Contribution of non-WRAP sources to baseline • Representativeness of 2000-04 baseline: 1/3 of Class I monitoring sites have no more than 3 years of data in baseline period • These issues more acute in the West

6. 2018 Base Case Visibility Projections (deciviews) Note: Fire & Dust emissions held constant

8. Why A Species-Based Approach to understanding PM & Regional Haze Planning? • Species differ significantly from one another: • Contribution to visibility impairment • Spatial and seasonal distributions • Source types • Contribution from natural & international sources • Emissions data quality & completeness • Atmospheric science quality • Tools available for assessment and projection

9. WRAP Region Emissions/Air Quality Projections Data for Haze Planning

10. #2 – WRAP region EGU SO2 emissionsare declining

11. WRAP region EGU SO2 emissions Data Sources: 1995, 1998, and 2005 from EPA Clean Air Markets Division, 2002 emissions and 2018 projections by Eastern Research Group, and 2018 BART assuming presumptive limits in EPA BART rule on units > 200 MW

12. #3 – Mobile Source NOx emissions are declining

13. WRAP region NOx emissions by source category Data Sources: WRAP Forums’ emissions inventories and biogenics from BEIS model

14. #4 – Source apportionment of regional haze completed

15. Modeled Source Apportionment ExampleSulfate on 20% Worst Days -- Salt Creek, NM

16. Modeled Source Apportionment ExampleSulfate on 20% Worst Days -- Salt Creek, NM

17. Modeled Source Apportionment ExampleNitrate on 20% Worst Days -- Salt Creek, NM

18. Modeled Source Apportionment ExampleNitrate on 20% Worst Days -- Salt Creek, NM

19. Modeled Source Apportionment Map ExampleCalifornia Mobile Source Nitrate Contribution(January Average) 2000-04 2018

20. Modeled Source Apportionment Map ExampleEastern US Point Source Sulfate Contribution(July Average) 2000-04 2018

21. Example Weighted Emission Potential Method:Organic Carbon at Sawtooth Wilderness Emissions multiplied by air flow patterns Data Sources: gridded emissions inventories from Regional Modeling Center, gridded air mass residence time from Desert Research Institute

22. Example Weighted Emission Potential Products:Organic Carbon at Sawtooth Wilderness and

23. #5 – Technical Support System developed

24. Summary of key technical data to support regional haze planning & implementation – version 1 on-line mid-October 2006 Supports consultation & interstate emissions/visibility tracking Interactive data displays: Monitoring Emissions Modeling/Source Apportionment Results Ancillary GIS information To assess progress, provides tracking of: Periodic emissions inventories & emissions reductions programs Visibility monitoring data Modeling/Source Apportionment Results Welcome to the WRAP Technical Support System! Getting Started with the TSS Attribution of Haze Results Regional Haze Planning Support Weight of Evidence Checklist User Defined Queries & Analyses Technical Support System http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/tss/

25. Next steps • Late 2006 - early 2007 • States complete BART analyses & provide emissions reductions #s • States provide estimates of additional control programs • Compile & display on TSS • Mid-2007 & onward • Additional, limited efforts to provide regional emissions and modeling analyses • Future of IMPROVE monitoring program? • Train states on TSS tools and methods • Track emissions & visibility monitoring data

26. Triple Divide Peak, Montana8020 feet, 2444 meters • Triple Divide Peak is one of the major hydrographic apexes of the world. From this peak, the sum of the distances water must travel to reach the oceans is only exceeded by points along the Nile-Congo divide in Africa. • From Triple Divide Peak, water flows by these courses: • Pacific Creek, Nyack Creek, Middle Fork Flathead River, Flathead River, Clark Fork, Pend Oreille River, Columbia River, Pacific Ocean • Atlantic Creek, North Fork Cut Bank Creek, Cut Bank Creek, Marias River, Missouri River, Mississippi River, Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic Ocean (5800 km/3600 mi) • Hudson Bay Creek, Red Eagle Creek, Saint Mary Lake, Saint Mary River, Oldman River, South Saskatchewan River, Saskatchewan River, Cedar Lake, Lake Winnipeg, Nelson River, Hudson Bay, Hudson Strait, Atlantic Ocean (4000 km/1200 mi to Hudson Bay) • From Peakbagger,com: http://www.peakbagger.com/peak.aspx?pid=4815