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Global Warming and The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Rhode Island

Global Warming and The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Rhode Island. John King Professor of Oceanography Graduate School of Oceanography University of Rhode Island. The Problem. What’s going on?. Increased Carbon Emissions Rising Temperatures Rising Sea Level.

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Global Warming and The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Rhode Island

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  1. Global Warming and The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Rhode Island John King Professor of Oceanography Graduate School of Oceanography University of Rhode Island

  2. The Problem

  3. What’s going on? • Increased Carbon Emissions • Rising Temperatures Rising Sea Level

  4. Indicators of human influence on the atmosphere

  5. Changes in Temperature, Sea Level and Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover Courtesy of IPCC, 2007

  6. Rising Temperatures

  7. Rising Temperatures Courtesy of the Union of Concerned Scientists

  8. Global and Continental Temperature Change Courtesy of IPCC, 2007

  9. Changes in annual average temperature in the Northeast

  10. Changes in sea surface temperature - Maine

  11. Rhode Island climate “migration” Courtesy of the Union of Concerned Scientists

  12. Rising Sea Level

  13. Four contributions to sea level rise • Thermal expansion of seawater • Melting of glaciers and ice caps • Ice sheet surface mass balance • snowfall - melting • Ice sheet surface dynamical imbalance • increased flow rate

  14. Types of barrier islands

  15. Evolution of barrier islands during Holocene sea level rise

  16. Sea Level Rise: Observed vs. Projected Interval Model Prediction Observed mm/year mm/year 1993 - 2003 2.6 3.1 1961 - 2003 1.2 1.8

  17. Projected globally averaged surface warming & sea level rise at the end of the 21st century Courtesy of IPCC, 2007

  18. 2006 - IPCC estimate Thermal expansion of seawater .......... 28 cm Glaciers and ice caps ......................... 12 cm Mass balance ..................................... - 3 cm Increased flow ................................... + 3 cm Total: 40 cm Range of Estimates: 18-59 cm

  19. Sea level rise projections

  20. Observed and Projected Sea Level Rise by 2100 projected observed Church & White, 2006, Courtesy of IPCC, 2007

  21. Sea Level Rise: Observed = Projected projected observed

  22. Sea Level Rise: New Estimates Reference By 2100 Total Rise (feet) (feet) Overpeck, et al, 2006> 313 - 20 Rahmstorf, 2007 1.6 - 4.6 ---

  23. Greenhouse Gases in Ice Cores From Brook, E. J., 2005. Science , 25 vol. 310. no. 5752, pp. 1285 - 1287

  24. Rising Sea Level in Rhode Island ~ Southern Coastal Ponds

  25. Sea level rise: 3 feet Overpeck, J. T., et al., 2006. Paleoclimatic evidencefor future ice sheet instability and rapid sea level rise. Science, v. 311, p. 1747 - 1750.

  26. Sea level rise: 20 feet Overpeck, J. T., et al., 2006. Paleoclimatic evidencefor future ice sheet instability and rapid sea level rise. Science, v. 311, p. 1747 - 1750.

  27. Quonnie Pond: present sea level

  28. Quonnie Pond: 3 ft. sea level rise

  29. Quonnie Pond: 20 ft. sea level rise

  30. Global Impacts of Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Courtesy of IPCC, 2007

  31. Planning Needs • Seamless digital terrain model for RI • LIDAR survey of coastline • High-resolution bathymetry of coastal waters • Inundation model • Storm surge with wave regime superimposed • Better understanding of coastal erosion style and rate • Expanded Rhode Island sea level and coastal erosion monitoring program

  32. “Perhaps our epitaph will be: The good Earth. We could have saved it, but we were too damn cheap and lazy.” ~ Kurt Vonnegut

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