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State of Knowledge: Impact of Sea Level Rise

State of Knowledge: Impact of Sea Level Rise. Broad spectrum of impacts Geophysical (land loss, shoreline erosion, encroachment of ocean threatening estuaries/bays/rivers, increased susceptibility to storm surges, longer ice-free periods, change in energy balance)

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State of Knowledge: Impact of Sea Level Rise

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  1. State of Knowledge: Impact of Sea Level Rise • Broad spectrum of impacts • Geophysical (land loss, shoreline erosion, encroachment of ocean threatening estuaries/bays/rivers, increased susceptibility to storm surges, longer ice-free periods, change in energy balance) • Biological (stress to systems already stressed; changes in temperature-related physiology, species redistribution/loss, coastal ecosystem redistribution/loss, coral reef loss, loss of habitat for fisheries) • Societal (coastal population [40% w/in 100km of shore], economy and infrastructure [much of ~$50 trillion global economy], loss of agricultural land, increased vulnerability from storms, costly protective measures, saltwater intrusion, increased period of ice-free navigation)

  2. Key Processes: Sources of 1-2 mm/yr SLR Some changes from Arctic Many extra-Arctic • Site/region-specific & complex interactions…f(deformation of geoid, glacial rebound, temp., “system memory” + more “modern” changes) • No acceleration noted • Steric effects (thermal expansion, changes in salinity [0.2m volume]) • Melting of mountain glaciers ([0.5 m volume]) • Ice sheets (Greenland [6m volume]; Antarctica [65m volume]). • Non-climate factors (extraction of fossil groundwater [+ influence] , reservoir filling behind dams [- influence]; [4m volume])

  3. Deltas Under Threat Sea Level Rise Only Part of the Story Historical Analysis of 40 Sample Basins 8 • Sources of Change: • -- 8 Sea Level Rise • -- 7 Subsidence (groundwater/petroleum extraction) • -- 25 Upstream sediment trapping and diversion 7 25

  4. Cloud Feedback ? • Degree to which this is a positive/negative feedback remains an open question Issues Critical to This Synthesis • Isolate Arctic vs Extra-Arctic Forcings • In Arctic, the ffw processes could be relevant: Assume reduction in sea ice cover/thickness:

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