Seatrade Cruise Shipping Convention 2000 Miami, March 7-11 Session VII: The Regulatory Environment ” Safety of cruise v

1. Seatrade Cruise Shipping Convention 2000 Miami, March 7-11 Session VII: The Regulatory Environment ”Safety of cruise vessels - quo vadis?” Presented by Tor-Chr. Mathiesen, Dr.Ing. Senior Vice President

2. Introduction • Reduce risk • Safe navigation • Fire - effective measures • Damage stability - new approach • Evacuation - risk analysis • Regulatory framework • New approach • Cost-effectiveness of measures • Concluding remarks • Challenge - Manage risk • Cruise ship safety • Some Observations • Casualty statistics • Major Risks • Trends in ship design • Towards a Safety Culture, continuous • near-miss reporting • feedback to crew - operations • training of crew

3. Collision & Grounding Evacuation Failure Fire Risks in focus • By continuous focus on: • improvement • analysing incidents & near-miss • corrective actions RiskIdentification Risk Evaluation Risk Control Risk Monitoring Managing Risk Reduce: Probability  Consequence Owners challenge In this presentation

4. Cruise Ship Safety- Observations - • Casualty statistics are showing a positive trend • Fire, grounding and collision incidents are causing concern - potential for casualties? • O’Neil, IMO, December 99: • Suggesting “a global (holistic) approach to large passenger ship safety …” • IMO (MSC 72/21) - proposed work programme: “Enhancing the safety of large passenger ships” • …studies on operational safety aspects in emergencies… • focus on evacuation

5. Cruise ships included Casualty statistics: 1978-1998* Cruise - good safety record *) Data for passenger ships + ro-ro passenger ships are from 1989-1998 Source:LMIS casualty database april 1999, Eknes M., Kvien M.H “Historical Risk Levels in the Maritime Industry” (DNV-report 99-2028)

6. Collision & Grounding Evacuation Failure Fire Major Risks - Cruise Ships Source: Skjong, R., P. Adamcik, M. L. Eknes, S. Gran, J. Spouge “Formal Safety Assessment of Helicopter Landing Area on Passenger Ships as a Safety Measure’ DNV Report 97-2053. (Available as IMO/COMSAR 3/2)

7. “6th” generation cruise ships Trends: • Floating “adventure” hotels • Architectonic development • More advanced systems on automation / monitoring • Larger ships - more passengers • New groups of passengers - more families • New generation of seafarers Market demand: Focus onsafety, security and environment.Nothing must go wrong!

8. Best Practices Towards a Safety Culture - Reporting of incidents and near misses - • Change in culture, improve after near-misses • Motivation (incentives) for reporting • Analysis of reports - findingsfeedback • to crew / operation • to new ship design • Take action - update descision support systems • Continuous analysis of critical operations

9. Culture Company Values Proactive Reactive Managing Risk Towards a Safety Culture- ISM as a tool - • Continuous quality improvement • over and above compliance • Great emphasis on quality improvement processes, i.e. • Motivate pro-active safety behaviour - use incentives • Feedback to crew - regular learning - corrective action • Crew: Knowledge understanding confidence Today Future

10. Towards a Safety Culture- Training of Crew - • Decision support systems - continuously updated • Use near-miss cases in crisis management training • Emergency drills - procedures - communication • Fire and fire fighting - specially certified fire fighters? • Training centre for crew and hotel-personnel? • Standardised training • Share ”best practices” • Team-building - familiarisation with group of crisis management personnel (reduce crew turnover)

11. Collision & Grounding Company Values Best Practices • Reduce probability: • Optimise bridge arrangement for • safe and efficient performance of bridge functions for: • relevant bridge teams • any type of operational situation • Automatic Grounding Avoidance System • Avoid all disruptions (e.g.“hotel-management”) - reduce stress factors • Redundancy • navigational systems • propulsion, steering, powersupply

12. Rules & Regulations Fire • Often initiated in: • Engine rooms - high risk area (cruise ships specially critical due to many engines and small spaces) • Galley - Laundry spaces • Risk Analysis to identify • Ignition sources - protection and extinguishing • Equipment which needs special attention / maintenance • Smoke spread analysis • Requirements: focus on local fire protection systems (engine spaces) IMO MSC/Circ.913 and new Reg.7 of SOLAS Ch.II-2

13. Best Practices Fire Reduce risk Effective measures • Identify initiating hot spots: • Perform thermograph analysis - IR scanning of engine rooms: • temperatures > 220°C :  Isolate / Modify / Remove • Fuel oil system/lubrication oil system: • Check for insufficient insulation: flanges, turbine housings, clamps, bolts… • Proper shielding of fuel oil piping, including flexible hoses • Control of flexible hoses, focus on hose connections

14. Collision & Grounding Rules & Regulations Engineering Damage stability • Deterministicmethod (SOLAS90) widely used • Present probabilistic method (A265) not validated, consistent and robust with regard to safety • EU-project started March 2000 (HARDER, DNV co-ordination): • New harmonised probabilistic damage stability requirements (will be made available to IMO) - Assess safety on functional basis rather than using prescriptive criteria alone • In-depth evaluation & re-engineering of the probabilistic concept • Basis for developing prescriptive risk-based rules / design methodology • Leads to more flexible designs and more reliable safety assessment procedures

15. Evacuation Failure Today... Evacuation(Mustering - Abandoning - Rescue) • Life saving: 75% based on life boats • Rafts launched withdavit arrangements • Limited use of Marine Evacuation Systems (MES) • Required Life Saving Appliances (LSA) not optimal for all realistic weather conditions • Lack of realistic Human Element (HE) data • Not optimised design of escape ways

16. Future Expectations Evacuation • Increased use of scenario-based evacuation analysis, input to: • facilitation and selection of equipment • evacuation planning (also bad weather) • regular and realistic crisis management training of crew • IMO: LSA-requirements - permitting innovation

17. Societal Values Future Expectations Safer onboard • Reduce need for abandoning the ship(more use of “safe havens” onboard?) • Establish evacuation models • Validate through large scale evacuation tests, HE included • Smoke spread analysis • Escape from Balconies and Sun Decks require attention • Motivate passengers to understand and participate

18. Rules & Regulations Future Expectations • Tomorrow: • Establish safety objective / principles…etc: • for efficient risk assessment of innovative design • for calibration of existing requirements Regulatory framework Safety objective Principles and Policies Functional requirements Present framework based on experience with existing technology Most IMO Requirements Detailed technical requirements Present Classification Rules Other technical standards

19. Evacuation Failure Flooding Collision Human error, navigation Fire Part of new approach... Cost-Benefit Priorities Event Trees FSA: What is the cost effective safety measure?

20. 0.3-1 Bulk carriers: forward hold  8 Ro-ro ferry: Stockholm Agreement  37 Cruise ship: Helicopter Landing (with high uncertainty)Area (HLA) ICAF (Mill US$) 3 Mill US$ Commonly used decision criteria IMO (MSC): Cruise ships HLA not justified. Example of cost-effectiveness analysis Implied Cost of Averting a Fatality (ICAF)  Descision criteria range

21. Future expectations... Concluding remarks- Reduce risk - • Fire safety: • Continuous search for ignition sources • Thermograph analysis of engine room • Focus on fuel oil systems • Local fire protection systems now • Safe navigation: • Bridge arrangement and manning in focus

22. Future expectations... Concluding remarks - Reduce risk - • Survival capability:probabilistic methods • Initiative from IMO/EU on large cruise passenger ships • Evacuation:risk analysis • Realistic scenarios • Realistic human element data • IMO: LSA-requirements - permitting innovation • Regulatory framework: • Establish modern framework for safety assessment • Holistic approach to safety

23. Future expectations... Concluding remarks - Towards a Safety Culture - • Continuous incident/near-miss reporting • Continuous analysis of critical operations • Feedback to crew - operation • and feedback to design of new ship • Motivate pro-active safety behaviour - use incentives • Realistic training of crew • Emergency situations / decision support / teamwork Continuous improvement!