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National Air Quality Forecast Capability: First Steps Toward Implementation October 28, 2003

National Air Quality Forecast Capability: First Steps Toward Implementation October 28, 2003. Paula Davidson National Weather Service Program Manager for Air Quality Forecasting. Outline. Background, Vision Planned Capabilities October 2003 Status.

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National Air Quality Forecast Capability: First Steps Toward Implementation October 28, 2003

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  1. National Air Quality Forecast Capability: First Steps Toward Implementation October 28, 2003 Paula Davidson National Weather Service Program Manager for Air Quality Forecasting

  2. Outline • Background, Vision • Planned Capabilities • October 2003 Status

  3. National Air Quality ForecastingBackground • Congressional interest • H.R. 4 Energy Policy Act of 2002 (Senate Amendment) S. 517, SA 1383, Forecasts and Warnings: “The Secretary of Commerce, through the Administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, shall, in order of priority as listed in section (c) establish a program to provide operational air quality forecasts and warnings for specific regions of the United States…” • NOAA-EPA Agreements • DOC Deputy Secretary and EPA Administrator signed MOU/MOA for AQ forecasting May 6, 2003 • Constituent interest • AQ managers, public health officials, private weather sector partners urge NOAA to provide AQ forecasts • Science is mature • Ozone forecast models demonstrated in lab -- others in development • Other nations (Canada, Australia) have existing AQ forecast capability

  4. National Air Quality ForecastingVision and Strategy Vision National Air Quality Forecast System which provides the US with ozone, particulate matter and other pollutant forecasts with enough accuracy and advance notice to take action to prevent or reduce adverse effects Strategy Work with EPA, State and Local Air Quality agencies and private sector to develop end-to-end air quality forecast capability for the Nation

  5. Partnerships in Air Quality Forecasting EPA > Maintain current national emissions inventory > Maintain national air quality monitoring databases > Disseminate/interpret national air quality forecast information - AQI and links to public health NOAA > Develop and evaluate tools for national/state/local air quality forecasting > Provide operational air quality models and forecast pollutant concentration fields with national coverage STATES / LOCALS > Provide state/local emissions data > Provide state/local air quality monitoring data > Provide local AQI forecasts/warnings PUBLIC and COMMERCIAL SECTORS

  6. National Air Quality ForecastingPlanned Capabilities • Initial: 1-day forecasts of ozone (O3) • Develop and validate in Northeastern US within 2 years • Deploy Nationwide within 5 years • Intermediate (5-7 years): • Develop and test capability to forecast particulate matter (PM) concentration • Particulate size < 2.5 microns • Longer range (within 10 years): • Extend air quality forecast range to 48-72 hours • Include broader range of significant pollutants

  7. National Air Quality Forecast CapabilityMajor Components: IOC NWP Model Eta-12 NOAA/NWS Weather Observations EPA’s National Emissions Inventory: EPA/OAQPS AQ Module: Emissions Preprocessor PREMAQ NOAA/OAR and EPA/ORD IT /Comms NOAA/NWS and EPA/OAQPS AQ Module: Air Quality Reactive Transport CMAQ NOAA/OAR and EPA/ORD

  8. O3 Movies/ Forecasts EPA Data Management Center Initial Operating Capabilty: IT Links NOAA National Center for Environmental Prediction Weather Obs AQ Data from S/L Agencies EPA Emissions Inventory Commercial Weather Providers Predicted Pollutant Concentration Fields Data “pull” - - -> Data “push” ____> Media City-specific AQI forecasts State/Local Air Agencies Public

  9. Day 2 Day 0 Day 1 Production Cycle • 1-Day ozone forecasts: Target deployment 9/15/04 for NE US • 1-hr and 8-hr avg O3 levels: categories for EPA and in parts per billion (ppb) at NWS Gateway • Delivered 2X daily: • Primary forecasts for following day: delivered by 1730 UTC valid for 24 hours through 4 UTC, day 2 • Update forecasts for current day: delivered by 1300 UTC valid for 15 hours through 4 UTC, next day Issue Forecast – 00/1730 UTC Threshold Forecast Valid 01/04 UTC to 02/04 UTC Objective - Extend to 02/12 UTC Threshold Forecast Valid 01/13 UTC to 02/04 UTC Model Run time Objective - Extend to 02/12 UTC Forecast Interval Forecast Objective Update Forecast 01/13 UTC Next Cycle 00 UTC 00 UTC 00 UTC 00 UTC

  10. National Air Quality ForecastingInitial Operating System Test Product: Initial Operational Domain • Linked numerical prediction system • Operationally integrated on NCEP’s supercomputer : • NCEP mesoscale NWP: Eta-12 • NOAA/EPA community model for AQ: CMAQ • Observational Input: • NWS weather observations • EPA emissions inventory • Gridded forecast guidance products • Delivered to NWS Telecommunications Gateway and EPA for users to pull • Verification basis • EPA ground-level ozone observations • Customer outreach/feedback • State & Local AQ forecasters coordinated with EPA • Public and Private Sector AQ constituents EPA Ozone Monitoring Network

  11. Success Criteria:Initial Operating Capability • Forecast Performance Accuracy: Operational model more accurate than persistence forecast: Threshold target: critical level “hit accuracy” predicted on 90% of days • On-time delivery Forecast guidance provided on schedule: At least 95%

  12. Initial Operating SystemStatus: Development, Testing, Integration C C C G C G G G

  13. Status: October 2003 • Ozone forecasting: NOAA & EPA Planning for IOC in NE US • Models integrated into NCEP operational environment for twice daily test-runs • 12Z “primary” and 6Z “morning update” predictions • Required HPCC hardware acquired and integrated into NCEP operations • NWS IT architecture and links to EPA in place • Summer, 2003 Testing: AQ during summer 2003 in NE US unusually good; only a few isolated poor-AQ days • Model predictions generally corroborated by monitoring data, although predicted surface ozone concentration levels consistently high • Customer focus group feedback on Summer, 2003 test results: • Workshop with focus group, developers held September 9-10: Encouraging • Upgrades underway to incorporate feedback, improve accuracy for RTT&E in 2004 • RTT&E in Summer 2004 - - >> commissioning by September, 2004

  14. National Air Quality ForecastingSummary: First Steps • IOC: AQ Forecast guidance produced 2X daily • Numerical prediction of ground-level ozone • driven by weather forecasts • Gridded (12km), hour-by-hour through next day • Developmental testing in 2003 successful • RTT&E (experimental products) in 2004 • Phased Deployment Planned • September, 2004: • Northeastern US, next-day, ozone. • Five years: • Nationwide coverage; begin particulates forecasts • Ten years: • Extend forecasts to 2 days and beyond; • Add additional pollutants Test Product: Initial Operational Domain

  15. National Air Quality Forecast CapabilityImplementation Team • Special Thanks To:

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