Triggering of the Madden-Julian Oscillation by equatorial ocean dynamics.

1. Triggering of the Madden-Julian Oscillation by equatorial ocean dynamics. Benjamin G. M. Webber Adrian J. Matthews, Karen J. Heywood and David P. Stevens Webber BGM, Matthews AJ, Heywood KJ, Stevens DP (2011) Ocean Rossby waves as a triggering mechanism for primary Madden-Julian events. Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. Accepted, subject to minor revisions. IAPSO-IAMAS JM10: Monsoons, Tropical Cyclones and Tropical Dynamics IUGG, Melbourne, 4 July 2011

2. The MJO: Motivation for this study The MJO Ocean Dynamics Primary Events Case Studies Composites Conclusions • Motivation: to investigate the dynamical ocean component of the MJO • Key questions for the MJO: • What causes its sporadic, intermittent nature? • How can we predict and model it better? • Can we predict “primary” Madden-Julian (MJ) events that do not have a consistent atmospheric or thermodynamic trigger? OLR (Wm-2) Sea surface height (SSH; cm)

3. Ocean dynamicsPropagation in the Indian Ocean The MJO Ocean Dynamics Primary Events Case Studies Composites Conclusions The MJO triggers equatorial waves that slosh back and forth in the Indian Ocean. Downwelling Rossby waves reach the western Indian Ocean ~90 days after initial forcing. Sea surface height (SSH; cm)

4. Ocean dynamicsFeedback mechanism for the MJO The MJO Ocean Dynamics Primary Events Case Studies Composites Conclusions Webber BGM, Matthews AJ and Heywood KJ (2010)A dynamical ocean feedback mechanism for the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 136. 740-754.

5. Primary Madden-Julian (MJ) eventsOverview and convective signal The MJO Ocean Dynamics Primary Events Case Studies Composites Conclusions Primary MJ events not preceded by coherent MJO variability. Matthews (2008) found no coherent atmospheric triggers for such events. So what causes them? Could ocean dynamics be the trigger?

6. The MJO Ocean Dynamics Primary Events Case Studies Composites Conclusions Triggering primary eventsPreceding Rossby wave signal Downwelling Rossby wave Could the ocean dynamics trigger primary MJ events? The timing agrees for SSH and OLR... Shading: SSH anomalies (cm) Contours: OLR anomalies (W m-2)

7. Rossby wave signalSST and density anomalies The MJO Ocean Dynamics Primary Events Case Studies Composites Conclusions Rossby wave propagation Rossby wave propagation Shading: SST anomalies (oC) Contours: Surface fluxes (W m-2) Shading: Vertical velocity (m/s) Contours: Density (kg m-3)

8. Composites: Primary and SuccessiveRossby waves a consistent trigger? The MJO Ocean Dynamics Primary Events Case Studies Composites Conclusions Shading: SSH anomalies (cm) ; Contours: OLR anomalies (W m-2) Primary events are triggered by Rossby waves – Successive events are not

9. Composites of primary MJ eventsSST and density anomalies The MJO Ocean Dynamics Primary Events Case Studies Composites Conclusions Clear link between Rossby wave and convection Downwelling Rossby wave is associated with positive SST anomalies. SST anomalies caused by positive temperature advection and mixed layer deepening

10. Webber BGM, Matthews AJ, Heywood KJ, Stevens DP (2011) Ocean Rossby waves as a triggering mechanism for primary Madden-Julian events. Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. Accepted, subject to minor revisions.

11. Conclusions Downwelling Rossby wavesact as a trigger for primary MJ events. These waves are a consistent trigger in both case studies and composites. The downwelling Rossby waves lead to a deepening of the mixed layer, associated with positive horizontal and vertical temperature advection. In addition, the deeper mixed layer will suppress entrainment of cold water to the surface The Rossby waves are therefore associated with warm SST anomalies of 0.5-1oC that lead to convection and thus trigger primary MJ events. But what triggers the ocean dynamics? Come to my poster tomorrow to find out... The MJO Ocean Dynamics Primary Events Case Studies Composites Conclusions

12. What triggers the ocean dynamics? Turn to modelling studies to find out The MJO Primary Events Case Studies Composites Conclusions Observed The model equations: Zonal (x) momentum: Meridional (y) momentum: Hydrostatic balance: Mass conservation: Modelled Thermodynamic equation: (for density) The model is linearised about a resting basic state. There are no currents or surface fluxes (apart from wind stress). It simulates Kelvin and Rossby waves (rather well). Sea surface height (SSH; cm)

13. Modelling: case study primary MJ event The MJO Primary Events Case Studies Composites Conclusions Wave B Wave B Wave A Wave A Model forced by observed winds over the 150 days leading up to the primary event of 24 September 2004. Model SSH closely matches observations.

14. Modelling: case study primary MJ event The MJO Primary Events Case Studies Composites Conclusions Therefore, the westerly wind burst in May forces a response in the ocean dynamics that triggers MJO activity 140 days (almost 5 months) later. But how important is the more recent wind forcing? Rossby wave triggers primary MJ event Kelvin wave generates Rossby wave at eastern boundary WWB triggers Kelvin wave

15. Modelling: sensitivity to length of wind forcing The MJO Primary Events Case Studies Composites Conclusions No wind forcing No wind forcing Shorter periods of wind forcing do not reproduce the observed ocean dynamics. Thus we can conclude that the integration of wind forcing events over the preceding 150 days is important.

16. Re-emergence of ocean dynamics The MJO Primary Events Case Studies Composites Conclusions The westerly wind burst that is the original trigger for the ocean dynamics is associated with the last strong MJ event before the summer (when the MJO moves north off the equator). Thus, one MJ event can influence another almost 5 months later, after re-emergence of the dynamical ocean signal in the western Indian Ocean. This suggests the possibility of unprecedented predictability for the MJO

17. Composites of primary MJ events The MJO Primary Events Case Studies Composites Conclusions Composites show that the convection is clearly triggered by the arrival of a downwelling Rossby wave in the western Indian Ocean This downwelling Rossby wave is associated with positive SST anomalies. Therefore, it appears that the Rossby waves are a consistent and robust trigger for primary MJ events.

18. Supplementary Slides: Relative longitude composites The MJO Primary Events Case Studies Composites Conclusions

19. Ocean dynamics: vertical structure Baroclinic structure: sea surface height (SSH) anomalies are of order 5 cm. The perturbation to thermocline depth is 2-3 orders of magnitude greater, of order 50 m. The MJO Primary Events Case Studies Composites Conclusions SSH signal is of opposite sign to thermocline Positive (negative) SSH anomalies thus correspond to downwelling (upwelling) Therefore: SSH+ve => SST+ve Thus, downwelling waves warm the sea surface and trigger convection, especially in the western Indian Oceanwhere the thermocline is shallow