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Sea Level Rise & Implication for Harbors and Marinas

Sea Level Rise & Implication for Harbors and Marinas. Ronald M. Noble. Looking Into a Warmer Future…. Greenland (+21 ft) and Antarctica (+200 ft) melting will become largest contributor to global MSL rise. MSLR by 2100 Assuming Δ T < 4° C. (Nicholls, et al. 2011 Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc.).

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Sea Level Rise & Implication for Harbors and Marinas

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  1. Sea Level Rise & Implication for Harbors and Marinas Ronald M. Noble

  2. Looking Into a Warmer Future… Greenland (+21 ft) and Antarctica (+200 ft) melting will become largest contributor to global MSL rise MSLR by 2100 Assuming ΔT < 4° C (Nicholls, et al. 2011 Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc.)

  3. Global ≠ Regional MSLR 1992-2009 Global MSLR 3.3 mm/yr or 33 cm/cy Is MSL rise acceleration imminent on west coast? No Rise Fast Rise Global MSLR not evenly distributed dynamical effects! Reversal? “Regime Shift” http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/ Bromirski, Miller, Flick, Auad, 2011. Dynamical suppression of sea level rise along the Pacific coast of North America: Indications for imminent acceleration, Jour. Geophys. Res. 116(C07005) Bromirski, Miller, Flick, 2012, North Pacific Sea Level Trends, Eos Trans. AGU, 93(27), 249-256.

  4. Historical Mean Sea Level Trend: San Francisco Source: NOAA Website

  5. Historical Mean Sea Level Trend: Los Angeles Source: NOAA Website

  6. “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future.” - Niels ‘Yogi Berra’ Bohr

  7. Global Sea Level Change Prediction (by 2100) Source: USACE EC 1165-2-212

  8. USACE SLR Guidance: EC 1165-2-212 (2011) Three SLR scenarios: • “Low” SLR rate: using the historical rate of SLR • “Intermediate” SLR rate: using modified NRC Curve I • “High” SLR rate: using modified NRC Curve III

  9. California Sea-Level Rise Guidance Document California Climate Action Team (CO-CAT) developed a SLR Guidance based upon NRC 2012 report SLR. CO-CAT includes state entities: • Business, Transportation and Housing Agency • Coastal Commission • Dept of Fish and Game • Dept of Parks and Recreation • Dept of Public Health • Dept of Toxic Substances Control • Dept of Transportation • Dept of Water Resources • Environmental Protection Agency • Governor’s Office of Planning and Research • Natural Resources Agency • Ocean Protection Council • Ocean Science Trust • San Francisco BCDC • State Coastal Conservancy • State Lands Commission • State Water Resources Control Board

  10. NRC (2012) SLR Report

  11. California Sea-Level Rise Guidance Document CO-CAT reached agreement on the following policy recommendations for SLR

  12. CCC (2013) Draft Sea-Level Rise Policy Guidance

  13. SLR Projects between USACE and CA State

  14. Wave-Driven Runup & Overtopping = Damage Stinson Beach, 1998 MSL is 20 feet lower! wave ^ Cardiff State Beach, 1998 Both private and public infrastructure is and will be at risk!

  15. Waves, Storm Surge & High TidesFlooding & Erosion December 1982 Hs 3 m January 1983 Hs 4 m Mission Beach 2010

  16. Extra 0.5-2 m! “Tuned” MSLR Beaches and infrastructure are “tuned” to current extremes of ~3m (10 ft) MSL (Bill O’Reilly cartoon)

  17. SF Bay Area Potentially Exposed to SLR

  18. Implication of SLR: Marina del Rey, California Over 1 in 6 chance sea level rise + storm surge + tide will overtop + 6 ft by 2100 Src: http://sealevel.climatecentral.org/

  19. Implication of SLR: San Francisco, California Over 1 in 6 chance sea level rise + storm surge + tide will overtop +7 ft by 2100 Src: http://sealevel.climatecentral.org/

  20. Impact of SLR on Yosemite Slough Wetlands Restoration

  21. Impact of SLR on Yosemite Slough Wetlands Restoration

  22. Impact of SLR on Yosemite Slough Wetlands Restoration

  23. Impact of SLR on Yosemite Slough Wetlands Restoration

  24. Impact of SLR on Yosemite Slough Wetlands Restoration

  25. Return-Period ‘Creep’ Projections based on MSL rise “central” value +3 ft (2000-2100) NRC (2012) MSL is 20 feet lower! 100-yr Maximum Water Level (+5.2 ft MSL) in 2000 becomes 10-yr event in 2017, 1-yr event in 2048, and monthly in 2083

  26. Waves, Storm Surge & High TidesFlooding & Erosion December 1982 Hs 3 m January 1983 Hs 4 m Mission Beach 2010

  27. Wave-Driven Runup & Overtopping = Damage Stinson Beach, 1998 MSL is 20 feet lower! wave ^ Cardiff State Beach, 1998 Both private and public infrastructure is and will be at risk!

  28. Mild -but- Variable Climate • Decades drought • Decades wet • Extremes 111⁰ - 26 Sep 1963 3.2” rain - 5 Apr 1926 25” rain 1940-41 26” rain 1883-84 • CA Four “Seasons” Quake Drought Fire Flood Dry? Wet Dry

  29. Sea Level Rise Rates Vary El Niño -0.7 cm/cy 18 cm/cy -5.4 cm/cy Regional MSLR rates depend on large-scale atmospheric conditions over North Pacific Ocean

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