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NS4960 Spring Term 2017 IEA Energy Security Index

NS4960 Spring Term 2017 IEA Energy Security Index. Overview I. Ensuring energy security central to the mission of the IEA Founded in response to oil crisis of 1973-74 IEA initially focused on oil supply security

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NS4960 Spring Term 2017 IEA Energy Security Index

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  1. NS4960 Spring Term 2017IEA Energy Security Index

  2. Overview I • Ensuring energy security central to the mission of the IEA • Founded in response to oil crisis of 1973-74 IEA initially focused on oil supply security • While oil security an important concern, contemporary energy security policies must address a broader range of risks • Threats to energy security come from a variety of • Natural • Economic, and • Political factors • All affect energy sources and infrastructure

  3. MOSES I • IEA has developed a Model of Short-Term Energy Security (MOSES) as a tool to evaluate short term security of energy supply • MOSES is based on a set of quantitative indicators that measure two aspects of energy security • Risks of energy disruptions, and • Resilience, or the ability of a national energy system to cope with disruptions • It does not rank countries on the basis of their energy security • Instead it identifies “energy security profiles” of individual countries based on their risks and resilience capacities

  4. MOSES II • MOSES can also be used to • Track the evolution of national energy security profiles over time • Analyze the effect different policies would have on a given country’s energy security and • Thus identify national energy policy priorities • MOSES takes an energy systems approach to analyzing energy security • Energy systems analysis deals with all parts of the energy system from • Energy supply to • Transformation and distribution to • End-use energy services

  5. MOSES III • In its current version MOSES analyses vulnerabilities of primary energy sources and how these affect the security of secondary fuels • With its focus on fuels and energy sources MOSES lays foundation for extending analysis to security of electricity and end-use sectors

  6. MOSES IV

  7. MOSES V • MOSES analyses both risk and resilience connected to external factors related to imported energy as well as domestic factors related to domestic production, transformation, and distribution of energy

  8. MOSES VI • These four dimensions analyzed by MOSES using approximately 30 indicators that characterize each primary energy source and secondary fuel • Evaluation of energy supply security using these indicators involves two steps: • First -- these bands of values – corresponding to low, medium and high vulnerability are established for each indicator • These bands are based on observed ranges of indicator values in the IEA countries • As well as expert judgements about risks and resilience capacities

  9. MOSES VII • Second – a energy security profile is established. • To do that indicators combined in a way that takes into account • How particular risks may exacerbate each other and • How particular resilience capacities may mitigate specific risks

  10. MOSES VIII

  11. MOSES IX

  12. MOSES X

  13. Short Term Energy Security I • Following charts/tables describe the vulnerabilities related to a different primary energy source or secondary fuel • Energy security profiles are marked by letters A to E, generally moving from • lower risks/higher reliance profiles (higher energy security) to • higher risk/lower resilience profiles (lower energy security

  14. Short Term Energy Security II

  15. Short Term Energy Security III

  16. Short Term Energy Security IV

  17. Short Term Energy Security V

  18. Short Term Energy Security VI

  19. Short Term Energy Security VII

  20. Short Term Energy Security VIII

  21. Short Term Energy Security IX

  22. Short Term Energy Security X

  23. Short Term Energy Security XI

  24. Short Term Energy Security XII

  25. Short Term Energy Security XIII

  26. Short Term Energy Security XIX

  27. Short Term Energy Security XX

  28. Short Term Energy Security XXI

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