Workshop on Phase 3 Reformulated Gasoline and the Predictive Model

1. Workshop on Phase 3 Reformulated Gasoline and the Predictive Model August 31, 1999 El Monte, CA

2. Agenda • Goals • Carbon Monoxide Credit • Predictive Model - Evaporative • Off-Road • Predictive Model - Exhaust • Sulfur Credit - Flexibility • Draft Specifications • Other Presentations? • Autos • Oils • Oxygenate • Others • Next Meeting

3. Goals • Provide Flexibility, for removing MTBE while preserving real-world benefits • Obtain additional reductions that are technically and economically reasonable

4. Carbon Monoxide Credit • 3 Technology Groups • 5 Studies - Auto/Oil 1, 4, 6, 17, and ARB Ethanol Study • Off-cycle Emissions • 5 Studies - ARB Ethanol, Auto/Oil, ATL Low Oxygen, and Colorado Study (???) • U.S. EPA Draft Report - Fuel Oxygen Effects on Exhaust CO Emissions - MOBILE6 • Off-cycle NOx increases

5. Carbon Monoxide Credit • EMFAC7g -vs- EMFAC99 • Summer Test Program • More data • Stakeholder and Peer Review

6. Carbon Monoxide Credit Carbon monoxide credit for increasing oxygen from 2 % to 3.5% is 0.2 psi RVP

7. Evaporative Emissions Model • No Change at this time • EMFAC7g -vs- EMFAC99 • Draft Model based on Baseline Year 2005 • 3 Processes • Hot Soak • Running Loss • Diurnal and Resting Loss

8. Off-Road • 4-Stroke and 2-Stroke • Tend to Run Rich • Oxygen tends to lean-out process • Oxygen increases NOx • No Catalytic Converter • Implies NOx increase difficult to offset. • No sulfur effect • Uncontrolled for Evaporative Emissions • Emissions tend to have higher reactivities • Increased toxics (benzene) emissions

9. Exhaust - Predictive Model • Current Model Terms Fit as well • Use Current Model Fit to New Data • Olefin and T90 Responses • Tech 5 - Sulfur Steeper, Oxygen Shallower • Stakeholder and Peer Review

10. New Model and Old ModelRoot Mean Squared Error of the Predictions* * Cross-validation estimation of the Prediction Error

11. Sulfur Credit • 32 Percent of Fuels Reported with sulfur greater than proposed sulfur cap of 30 ppm • 44 ppm - Average sulfur for fuels with sulfur greater than 30 ppm • Reduce sulfur to 30 ppm • Sulfur credit used to offset T90

12. Goals • Provide Flexibility, for removing MTBE while preserving real-world benefits • Obtain additional reductions that are technically and economically reasonable

13. Draft Specifications

14. Draft Specifications * - No Change, NA - Not Applicable

15. Presentations by Others? • Autos • Oils • Oxygenates • Others

16. Next Business • Other business • Next Meeting • Posting Beta 2 Model on Website