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Methodological and practical solutions for the evaluation of the economic impact of RDP in Latvia

Methodological and practical solutions for the evaluation of the economic impact of RDP in Latvia. M.oec. Armands Veveris Latvian University, PhD student; Latvian State Institute of Agrarian economics. 122 nd European Association of Agricultural Economists Seminar

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Methodological and practical solutions for the evaluation of the economic impact of RDP in Latvia

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  1. Methodological and practical solutions for the evaluation of the economic impact of RDP in Latvia M.oec. Armands Veveris Latvian University, PhD student; Latvian State Institute of Agrarian economics 122nd European Association of Agricultural Economists Seminar Evidence-Based Agricultural and Rural Policy Making Methodological and Empirical Challenges of Policy Evaluation February 17th – 18th, 2011, Ancona (Italy) This work has been supported by the European Social Fund within the project «Support for Doctoral Studies at University of Latvia». Centro Studi Sulle Politiche Economiche, Rurali e Ambientali associazioneAlessandroBartolastudi e ricerche di economia e di politica agraria Università Politecnica delle Marche

  2. The aim and objectives of the study • The aim of the study is to analyse the methodological and practical solutions which are introduced to evaluate the impact of the RDP in Latvia First level • The following objectives are set: • To analyse the organization of RDP evaluation process • To characterize the information sources used for the evaluation • To investigate the methodological solutions applied in the Mid-term evaluation

  3. The present structure of the evaluation process of RDP in Latvia Managing authority (tasks, receiving results) Independent evaluator (organization of evaluation process, contracts with experts, data collection, obtaining and reporting of results) Experts (in different fields – agriculture, forestry, environment, qualtiy of life etc.) – analysis on specific fields

  4. The data sources for evaluation The main data source for RDP beneficiaries: Rural Support service (support managing institution) FADN (additional source for RDP beneficiaries (more detailed information) + for non-beneficiaries (source for control groups in agricultural measures) Sources for general information: Central Statistical Bureau; Ministries and their institutions Qualitative sources: surveys, interviews, focus groups, expert findings

  5. The basic indicators & questions for the evaluation of Measure no.121

  6. Groupings for analysis of indicators Regional groupings (regions, counties) Kind of specialization (types of agricultural branches where the projects are realised) Size groupings (ESU or physical size, net turnover) Gender, age groups etc.

  7. Calculation of net changes in the Gross Value Added in Measure nr.121

  8. Number of farms in different size groups: beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries in Measure no.121 (in FADN data base)

  9. Evaluation of the indirect effects According to CMEF guidelines, the following indirect effects should be evaluated: double counting, deadweight, leverage effect, substitution, displacement, multiplier effect It is necessary to develop a methodology Double counting it is planned to prevent the significant effect at the stage of selection of the group. Deadweight is precluded with creating the base group. Also estimations are done to evaluate this effect.

  10. Evaluation of the indirect effects (2) Substitution effect the potential approach has been considered theoretically, but it has not been approbated in practice yet. Displacement effect The theoretical approach is developed. In practice, at MTE distribution of support through different regions is accented. Multiplier effect Due to lack of input-output tables, the simplified approach is used. The effect is calculated for a rural territory, taking into account part of the additional expenses what stay in rural territories. Evaluated at 20-25% level of additional Intermediate Consumption of support beneficiaries.

  11. The main problems in evaluation of RDP The lack of consistent data The measures started some years ago, so is very difficult to do some changes in data range; also many of the basic indicators are not collected; small number of farms in samples does not allow to use specific methods The lack of experience There was no Rural Support Evaluation System in Latvia before RDP 2007-2013 Specific methods not approved in Latvia The methods recommended in Guidelines are very specific, so there is a lack of specialists who knows those

  12. Conclusions By implementation of the RDP 2007-2013 a permanent evaluation system is developed A system of indicators has already been developed in Latvia The principle of net effect evaluation is currently approbated in Latvia (in agricultural measures) The research was performed to find out the potential solutions for evaluation of indirect effects It is planned to continue the work on improving the current approaches

  13. Thank You for attention!

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