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Innovation and Futures Thinking - Are you Leading or Following?

How can foresight and Futures Thinking Methodologies help on the Design of a successful and future-proof product or service? What are trends, scenarios or Black Swans? This presentation was given at Interaction South America as part of a workshop about the usage of trends and Lean Service Creation for service innovation and creation. <br><br>The workshop is on its fourth edition and this time Ricardo Brito and Paul Houghton, my colleagues from Futurice, conducted the workshop and improved the material. I hope you enjoy!!

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Innovation and Futures Thinking - Are you Leading or Following?

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  1. Innovation and Futures Thinking: Are You Leading or Following? @futurice @toastedric @mobile_rat @janevita

  2. Who are we?

  3. We create digital services for people to love. Founded in 2000 200+ employees from 18 countries 8th year in a row profitable growth YOY growth 30% • • • •

  4. Our toolbox

  5. We build delightful digital services. And help our customers to succeed in digital business. • Feeling people • Analyzing business • Mastering technology

  6. Using Future Thinking in Concept Design

  7. 1. Foresight

  8. FORESIGHT Foreseeing the Future is the ability to forecast what will be needed or is going to happen in the future. Source:    Raymond,  2010,  Finpro  

  9. FORESIGHT IS NOT - Predict the future
 - Direct answers
 - Market Research or Business Intelligence Source:    Raymond,  2010,  Finpro  

  10. FORESIGHT IS - Combine familiar things in new ways
 - Makes you question your own “truths”
 - Inspire you to look from other angles
 - Helps to understand broader concepts
 - Helps the development of sustainable business
 - Helps find new business opportunities Source:    Raymond,  2010,  Finpro  

  11. FORESIGHT IS - Analyse the same date differently
 - Identify patterns, similarities 
 - Professional intuition based on experience
 - Process today’s world to find tomorrow’s 
 opportunities Source:    Raymond,  2010,  Finpro  

  12. “Working with Futures Thinking is not trying to predict the future, or having futuristic ideas. Futures Thinking is applying new and emergent cultural changes, after mapping and projecting these changes in a way that other people can understand and visualise them.” Martin Raymond, The Future Laboratory

  13. WHERE ARE THEY? - Internal Consultants
 - Consultants and companies who offer Future Research, Foresight Services and 
 Trend Analysis

  14. About Future Thinking 2.

  15. “There’s not a single future, but a whole spectrum of likely futures that depend on numerous possibilities, depending on decisions…
 …The aim is to shape our brains and strategic plans to be more flexible when facing the inevitability of the future.” Garlain, 2011

  16. “The most important thing for Futurologists is presenting as many alternatives and views as possible, they are the ones who will support the decisions to be made. ” Mannermaa, 2004

  17. Holistic & Multidisciplinary Statistics Economics Philosophy History Politics FUTURES
 RESEARCH Sociology Social Psychology Technology Culture Antropology Referência:  Aleksi  Neuvonen,  Demos  Helsinki.  Slideshare.  

  18. A set of principles and practices that can be applied to solve complex problems and to envision desirable and sustainable ways of action + DATA TREND ANALYSIS PATTERN RECOGNITION INTUITION IMAGINATION Source:    Futures  thinking  process  by  Vanessa  Miemis

  19. BIG DATA

  20. TREND ANALYSIS

  21. PATTERN RECOGNITION

  22. INTUITION AND IMAGINATION

  23. An iterative process which helps you consider a range of possibilities, probably and preferable outcomes ASKING THE QUESTION SCANNING
 THE WORLD MAPPING POSSIBILITIES ASKING THE NEXT QUESTION Source:    Futures  thinking  process  by    Jamais  Cascio

  24. Futurologists create expectations about the people’s and world’s future. Their goal is to support your efforts on shaping the future.

  25. We can make more informed Business and Design decisions by foreseeing the future

  26. 21st CENTURY DESIGN NEEDS TO BE DESIGN ADAPTIVE ROBUST TRANSFORMATIONAL FUTURE
 THINKING Futures Thinking develops the long-range outlook

  27. Future Thinking Benefits 3.

  28. Helps visualizing where we could be in the future Source: Meristö, Laitinen, 2009 Source: Sad Topographies

  29. Supports business choosing which risks to take Source: Sad Topographies Source: Meristö, Laitinen, 2009

  30. Simplifies the complex is an easy and digestable way WORLD’S INFORMATION INSIGHTS AND PLANS Source: Sad Topographies Source: Meristö, Laitinen, 2009

  31. Business flexibility & new business oportunities Source: Sad Topographies Source: Meristö, Laitinen, 2009

  32. Future Thinking & Service Design 7.

  33. In 2012, Koskelo & Nousiainen studied the relationship between Service Design and Futures Research. Inovation BUSINESS
 OPPORTUNITY Innovation was the result (Service) Design Thinking Futures Research

  34. FUTURES  THINKING Foresight  acIvity  in  the  context  of  innovaIon  process  (Meristö  2009,  as  cited  in  Meristö  and  LaiInen  2009,  16).   FORESIGHT CONCEPTS INFORMATION COLLECTION INFORMATION PROCESSING STRUCTURING ALTERNATIVES FUTURES SELECTING / EVALUATING ALTERNATIVE
 FUTURES IDENTIFICATION
 OF MARKET
 NEEDS CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT, TESTING
 AND REFINEMENT REALIZATION PESTE
 Analysis Future table Scenario working Strategy Working Market orientated futures table Scenario based theme specific identification Commerciali- zation Piloting Technology Roadmap Cross-Impact Analysis Futures table Alternative courses of actions Scenario storylines Concept Drafts Timing of market operations and R&D Delphi - Analysis Time-Series Analysis Business Potential estimation of scenarios SWOT Visualization Cooperation & Networks Market Potential Trend Analysis Visionary Concepts Competition Analysis

  35. SD  PROCESS  SUPPORTED  BY  FUTURES  RESEARCH SOURCE:  MORITZ  2005,  123;  EDITED  BY  KOSKELO  AND  NOUSIAINEN  BASED  ON  THEIR  RESEARCH,  2012   RESEARCH CONCEPTS DESIGN OPERATION UNDERSTANDING THINKING GENERATING EXPLAINING FILTERING REALISING OPERATION Empathic Conversations Multidisciplinary Processing Co-Creative Tools Experience Priorities Deciding Priorities Systematic Implementation Agile Development Observation Ethnography Probes Affinity wall Personas Mental Models Co-Design Games Drama Stage Play Storyboard Journey Map Concepts Prototypes Use Cases Commerciali- zation Service Blueprint Requirements Future Scenarios Trend Analysis Piloting Scenarios Scenario What If Weak Signal exploration Non-Experts Trend Cards What If Roadmapping Timing of market operations and R&D Cooperation & Networks

  36. FUTURES THINKING No constrains: Look far and beyond for alternative and desired contexts Scenarios PESTE Trends Weak Signals What if Roadmap DEFINE & SCOPE PROCESS & IDEATE DELIVER & UTILIZE DESIGN THINKING Empathy and concreteness: People driven systems and solutions Context Value Map Personas Context Value Map Personas Storytelling Play Prototype Source: La Futura

  37. FUTURES THINKING INFORMATION COLLECTION INFORMATION PROCESSING STRUCTURING ALTERNATIVES FUTURES SELECTING / EVALUATING ALTERNATIVE
 FUTURES IDENTIFICATION
 OF MARKET
 NEEDS CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT, TESTING
 AND REFINEMENT REALIZATION RESEARCH & KNOWLEDGE CREATION CREATE & TEST INTERPRET & DEVELOP UNDERSTANDING THINKING GENERATING EXPLAINING FILTERING REALISING OPERATION SERVICE DESIGN

  38. RESEARCH & FIND ANALYSE & DIGEST CREATE DEFINE

  39. SERVICE DESIGN FUTURE THINKING CONTEXT: Scenarios & Possibilities that influence Design choices

  40. Applying Future Thinking in Design 4.

  41. RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS Understanding the context of the problem and foresee opportunities raw data, information……

  42. CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT Brings a bigger and wider prespective Exploring Scenario and Possibilities

  43. CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT Short term plan & Big Vision Development of a road map for the future

  44. Weak Signals, Black Swans & Trends 5.

  45. Weak Signals - Your peers laugh at what you told - “Never going to happen”
 - People never heard about it, - As more people speak more about it more people get engaged Examples: Tinder, Facebook, Bimbi, Wearables…. Source: Hiltunen, 2010

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