Forest & Climate Change : Response Framework OEC, Bhuabaneswar 23-12-2011

1. Forest & Climate Change : Response FrameworkOEC, Bhuabaneswar23-12-2011 SANDEEP TRIPATHI Director (Projects & International Cooperation) Indian Council of Forestry Research and Education Dehra Dun, 248006 UA

2. OUTLINE • Impact on Forests • International Policy Framework • CDM • REDD+ • National Response Framework • INCCA • NAPCC • GIM • Way Forward

3. INDIA Geographical Area 329 Mha Legal Forest Area 77 Mha (23.42 %) Actual Tree Cover 75.7 Mha (23.03 %)

4. 10 Countries with largest forest cover(Million ha)

5. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE • Impacts are worse - already more flood and drought and a large share of the economy is in climate sensitive sectors • Lower capacity to adapt because of a lack of financial, institutional and technological capacity and access to knowledge • Climate change is likely to impact disproportionately in the poorest states and the poorest persons within states, exacerbating inequities in health status and access to adequate food, clean water and other resources

6. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON INDIAN FOREST ECOSYSTEMS • Increased risk of extinction and loss of biodiversity (IPCC IV AR) • Approximately 20-30% of species at risk if warming exceeds 1.5 – 2.5 °C (relative to 1980-1999) • Approximately 40-70% of species at risk if warming exceeds above 3.5 °C • On forests and forest functions • Migration of species, flowering, pollination, bird arrival • Likely changes structure and functions (NATCOM 2004) • Using BIOME-3 Vegetation Response Model (HadRM2) - Change in sps assemblage of forest types, change in NPP, Shift in forest boundaries, potential forest die-back & loss or change in biodiversity • Natural Ecosystem & Biodiversity Changes(INCAA 4x4 Report 2010) • PRECIS based HadRM/ IBIS models • Vegetation type in 8-56% grid impacted in different ecosystems

7. Sequestration Potential of Indian Forests • Carbon Stock of World’s Forests-638 Gt (FAO-07) • Carbon Stocks in 1995- 6,245 million tonnes • Carbon Stocks in 2005- 6,662 million tonnes • Annual Increment of 38 mt of C or 138 mt of CO2 • Annual CO2 removal by forests 11.25% of India’s GHG emission~ 100%Transport/residential sector • Mitigation Value of carbon Stock-24000mt CO2 -Rs. 6,00,000 crores (US $ 120b) @$US5/tonnes • Incremental Carbon Stocks-Rs.6,000 crores (US $1.2 b) @ $ US 7/tonnes • India’s forest and tree cover is enough to neutralize 11.25 % of India’s total GHG emissions • Equivalent to offsetting 100% emissions from all energy in residential and transport sectors; or 40% of total emissions from the agriculture sector

8. International Response Framework • 1988: UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) • Established by UN to assess technical information • 4 Working Groups • WG-1 Physical basis of science • WG-2 Impact adaptation and vulnerability • WG-3 Climate Change mitigation • WG-4 GHG inventory • Releases Assessment Reports (AR) since 1990

9. International Response Framework • 1992: Rio “Earth Summit”- UNFCCC -21 March 1994 - entry into force • Objectives- GHG stabilization, Food Security, Sustainable Economic & Social Development • 1997: COP 3 “Kyoto Protocol”-Enforced on 16th February 2005 • 41 Annex 1 parties (industrialized countries) are legally bound to reduce their GHG emission by 5.2 % before 2012 • USA yet to ratify, Australia ratified in 2007 • To reduce costs of reduction in overall emission of GHGs, 3 Market Based Mechanism

10. Per capita emissions and global share of emissions (Source: HDR 2007)

11. Botzen, Gowdy, Van den Bergh 2008

12. India-A Proactive Designated National CDM Authority India is leading A/R CDM country in the world out of 17 A/R DM projects registered 3 are from India India is second leading CDM country in the world after China • Reforestation of severely degraded landmass in Khammam District of Andhra Pradesh, India under ITC Bhadrachalam • 2. Afforestation CDM Pilot Project Activity on Private Lands Affected by Shifting Sand Dunes in Sirsa, Haryana (Small Scale) • 3.The International Small Group and Tree plating Programme (TIST), Tamil Nadu India

13. CDM project pipeline: > 5600 Issued CER till Jan 2011: 546,925,833 Expected CER by 2012: 2,700,000,000 Registered Projects: 3609 (745 from India) A&R (Forestry): 31 A&R Project registered- 6 from India

18. Qualifications for A&R Projects • “Afforestation” is direct human-induced conversion of land that has not been forested for a period of at least 50 years to forested land through planting, seeding and/or the human-induced promotion of natural seed sources • (b) “Reforestation” is direct human-induced conversion of non-forested land to forested land, thatdid not contain forest on 31 December 1989 ,through planting, seeding and/or the human-induced promotion of natural seed sources

19. Technological/Methodological Issues Additionality Physical Financial Baseline scenario Leakage Land Eligibility

20. Forest Definition India's original Forest definition: Tree crown Cover 10-30% (30%) Tree Height: 2-5 m (5m) Minimum area: 0.05-1 ha (0.05ha) Serious thought was given to this issue and changes were recommended: UNFCCC changed the country forest definition as follows: Tree crown Cover (15%) Tree Height: (2m) Minimum area: (0.05ha)

21. APPROVED A&R CDM PROJECTS of INDIA

22. REDD+ • First Deliberated in COP – 11 at Montreal 2005 • Followed up by Workshops at Rome, Italy in August 2006 and Cairns, Australia in March 2007 • In COP – 12 at Nairobi, SBSTA 26 at Bonn India pleaded for incentives towards conservation measures also • In COP -13 at Bali discussion on exiting & potential Policy Approaches, incentives & methodological issues • In COP-14 at Poznan role on conservation & SMF recognized- REDD + • Being deliberated under AWG-LCA of UNFCCC

23. Change in extent of Forest Cover and wooded lands 1990-2005 (Excluding Annex I Countries, Data Source: FAO, 2005) S. No. Countries Number of Countries Area 1,000 ha Annual Change 1990 2005 1,000 ha/ year % 1 Non Annex Countries with increasing forest cover and other wooded lands 27 443,092 479,624 2,436 +0.55 2 Non Annex Countries with decreasing forest cover and other wooded lands 74 2484,885 2283,436 13,430 - 0.54 3 Countries with negligible or No change 90 - - - -

24. Nations: Decreasing Forest Cover Top 15 Non Annex 1 Countries Area (Million ha) 47 115 419 201 180 95 86 166 69 27 97 55 56 48 Numbers above the bars represent the years needed to reach zero forest cover with present rate of deforestation (from 2005) Source: FRA 2005 (FAO 2005)

25. Nations: Increasing Forest Cover Top 10 Non Annex 1 Countries Area (Million ha) Source: FRA 2005 (FAO, 2005)

26. Incentives Claim: India • Proposed policy approach of Compensated Conservation seeks incentive for • incremental stocks of 0.96 GtC between 2006-2030 (projected increase from 8.79 GtC in 2006 to 9.75 GtC in 2030) • 2. baseline stocks of 8.79 GtC as on 2006

27. REDD outreach potential Red- Countries with live projects/projects under development Purple- Countries submitting R-PIN to World Bank Yellow- other countries with high deforestation rate Brown – UN-REDD program fund Green- Countries with increasing/ stabilized forest cover Blue- Donor Countries

28. Indian National Action Plan on Climate Change 3 ‘Mitigation’ focus 5 ‘Adaptation’ focus

29. National Mission for a Green India One of the eight Missions under the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) Acknowledges the influences of forestry sector on: environmental amelioration through climate mitigation food security water security biodiversity conservation livelihood security of forest dependant communities

30. NATIONAL MISSION FOR A GREEN INDIA • Carbon sink enhancement in SMF & other ecosystems • Enhancing resilience of vulnerable sps. Ecosystems • Enabling adaption of forest dependent communities • Afforestation of 20 m ha forest/non forest by 2020 • Increase GHG removal from forests to 6.35%- 1.5% additional/ sequestration of 43 m tonnes CO2 e annually by 2020 • Enhance resilience of forests/ecosystem being treated • Key Role to local communities & decentralized governance (=JFM) • Vulnerability and Potential as criteria for intervention • Robust monitoring framework • Through 9 Sub –missions & cross cutting initiatives • Mission cost Rs 44,000/-crores

31. INCCA Programmes

32. Existing GHG inventory Preparation network 120

33. Existing Network of Vulnerability and Adaptation No. of Institutions 120

34. Prepared by the Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment (INCCA) 4 x 4 Assessment 4 Sectors x 4 regions Assessment of impact of climate change in 2030s on four key sectors of the Indian economy, namely Agriculture, Water, Natural Ecosystems & Biodiversity and Health in four climate sensitive regions of India, namely the Himalayan region, the Western Ghats, the Coastal Area and the North-East Region.

36. INCCA Framework: GHG Emission Report This Report of Indian Network of Climate Change Assessment (INCCA), provides updated information on India’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions for the year 2007. India is the first “non-Annex I” country to publish such updated numbers

37. INCCA: Key findings released in May 2010 Total net GHG emission from India in 2007: 1727.71 m t CO2eq Of which: CO2:1221.76 million t CH4: 2056 million t N2O: 0.24 million t Energy: 1100.06 million t of CO2eq Industry: 412.55 million t CO2eq LULUCF: a net sink sequestered 177.03 million t of CO2eq India’s per capita CO2eq emission including LULUCF were 1.5 t/capita in 2007

38. GHG emissions by sectors in 2007

39. THANKS For further details sandeeptrip@icfre.org