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M makroekonomika

M makroekonomika. leqcia 11 inflacia , misi gamomwvevi mizezebi da Sedegebi nikoloz ostapenko. leqcia 11 - inflacia misi gamomwvevi mizezebi da Sedegebi. ra aris inflacia ?. inflaciis arsi.

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M makroekonomika

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  1. M makroekonomika leqcia 11 inflacia, misigamomwvevimizezebidaSedegebi nikolozostapenko

  2. leqcia 11 -inflaciamisigamomwvevimizezebidaSedegebi raarisinflacia? inflaciisarsi • inflacia– fulismsyidvelobiTiunarisdacema.ganasxvavebenfarul(daTrgunul) daRiainflacias. RiainflaciavlindebafasebissaerTodoniszrdissaxiT. masadgiliaqvsfasebzecentralizebulikontrolisararsebobisSemTxvevaSi (rogorcwesiumetesSemTxvevaSimasTangvaqvssaqmedaSemdgomSicmaszegveqnebasaubari). faruliinflaciakivlindebabazarzesaqonlisadamomsaxurebisdeficitiszrdiT.masadgiliaqvsfasebzecentralizebulikontraolisarsebobisSemTxvevaSi (misklasikurmagaliTssabWoTakavSiriwarmoadgens). • inflaciisaganundaganvasxvavoTfasebiserTjeradimateba, romelicSeiZlebagaxdesinflaciismizeziSeiZlebaara (misimizeziSeiZlebaiyosfasebissezonuriryevebidasxva) • inflaciaiwvevsbazrisdestabilizacias, radganmoklevadianperiodSiganapirobebssabazroinformaciisdamaxinjebas. bazrissubieqtebibazristendenciebisSesaxebinformaciasfasebiscvlilebiTiReben. amitominflaciaamaxinjebsbazrissubieqttaqcevas, zrdismomavlisadmipesimisturganwyobasdaa.S.

  3. leqcia 11 -inflaciamisigamomwvevimizezebidaSedegebi inflacis done dasaxeebi inflaciisarsi • inflaciis done(π)– ganisazRvrebafasebiszrdistempisdoniT. misigaangariSebisaTvisgamoiyenebasamomxmareblofasebisindeqsi(sfi) damSp-s deflatori. ganzogadebulisaxiTCven is SegviZliaSemdegnairadCavweroT: • rocainflaciaramdenimeaseTeuldaaseulsaRwevsmaSinaseTinflaciashiperinflaciasuwodeben. am drosSeiZlebaiTqvasrommaTelisabazromeqanizmiparalizebulia. filipkoganmaSemoitanahiperinflaciiskriteriumi, romlismixedviTachiperinflaciasadgiliaqvs, rocaTviuriinflacia 50% procentsaWarbebs (racweliwadSi 13 000%-ia). yvelazemaRalhiperinflaciasadgiliqondaungreTSi 1945-1946 wlebSirocafasebis done weliwadSi 3.8∙1027gaizardadafaebisdonisaSualoTviurizrdis tempi 19800% iyo. • deflacia – fasebisdonisSemcireba; • dezinflacia – inflaciistempebisSemcireba; • inflaciurimolodini– ekonomikurisubieqtebisdamokidebulebamomavalSifasebisdonismimarT;

  4. leqcia 11 -inflaciamisigamomwvevimizezebidaSedegebi inflaciasaqarTveloSi 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

  5. leqcia 11 -inflaciamisigamomwvevimizezebidaSedegebi inflaciasaqarTveloSi ≈3.5-jer gaizardafasebis done ≈1.95-jer gaizardafasebis done ≈1.72-jer gaizardafasebis done 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

  6. leqcia 11 -inflaciamisigamomwvevimizezebidaSedegebi klasikuridiqotomia klasikuridiqotomia • ganasxvavebenrealurdanominalurseqtorebs. realuriseqtorimoicavsdasaqmebas, warmoebas, qonebas, garigebebsdaa.S. nominaluriseqtorimoicavsfulismasasdafasebisdones. • klasiuridiqotomiagulisxmobsromrealurisidideebiarreagir- ebennominalurisidideebiscvlilebaze (grZelvadianperiodSimainc) amitom : • TuizrdebafulismasaraRacΔMtempiT, misizrdamxolodfasebiszrdazemoqmedebs (fulisbrunvissiCqarisdamSp-is zrdistempebiaricvleba) dafasebiczustadimavetempiTizrdebaratempiTacfulismasa – fulis am Tvisebasfulisneitralobasacuwodeban. • grZelvadianperiodSifulineitraluria.

  7. leqcia 11 -inflaciamisigamomwvevimizezebidaSedegebi inflaciurimolodinisararseboba – filifsismrudi rocainflaciurimolodiniararsebobs • Tukifasebimoulodneladizrdeba, maSinrogorcviciTmawarmoeblebizrdianwarmoebas, maSasadamedasaqmebasdaxelfasebs. anumoklevadianperiodSiarsebobsdamokidebulebafasebisdonesadaumuSevrebisdonesSoris. am damokidebul-ebasgamoxatavsfilifsismrudi. π,% • misigantolebaSemdegnairadSegviZliaCavweroT: filifsismrudi u,%

  8. leqcia 11 -inflaciamisigamomwvevimizezebidaSedegebi inflaciurimolodinisararseboba – erToblivimiwodebismrudi rocainflaciurimolodiniararsebobs • arturoukenmadamokidebulebaumuSevrobasadagamoSvebismoculobasSorisSemdegnairadgamoxata (formula miaxlobulia): π • maSasadamestabilurifasebispirobe-bSiwarmoebismoculobamispotenciurdonezeimyofeba. • inflaciakizrdiserToblivmiwodebas. Y

  9. leqcia 11 -inflaciamisigamomwvevimizezebidaSedegebi inflaciurimolodinisarseboba – erToblivimiwodebismrudi inflaciurimolodinisarseboba • fasebisdonisgansazrvrisasekonomikurisubieqtebiiTvaliswinebeninflaciurmolodins. amitomfilifsismrudisgantolebamolodinisgaTvaliswinebiTSegviZliaSemdegnairadgadavweroT: π π1 π0 • maSasadameinflaciurimolodiniszrdaerToblivimiwodebismrudsgadaaadgilebszemoTdazrdisinflacias, xoloSemcirebaqvemoTdaamcirebsinflacias. Y

  10. leqcia 11 -inflaciamisigamomwvevimizezebidaSedegebi fiSerisefeqti (erToblivimoTxovna) inflaciurimolodinisarseboba • Tufasebis done mimdinereperiodSiPt-s toliadavasesxebT1larsiwliuriprocentiT. maSinerTiwlisSemdegmivirebTPt(1+i) lars (nominalurad). realuradkimomdevnoperiodisfasebisdonisgaTvalis-winebiTPt(1+i) /Pt+1, sadacPt+1 = Pt(1+π). maSasadame, realurisaprocentoganakveTiSegviZliaSemdegnairadgamovsaxoT: faqtiuri mosalodneli • aqedangamomdinareSegviZliadavweroT: • maSasadamerocamosalodneliinflaciaizrdeba, izrdebasainvesticiomoTxovnadaSedegaderToblivimoTxovnac, radganacmosalodnelirealurisaprocentoganakveTimcirdeba. piriqiTTumosalodneliinflaciamcireba, mcirdebasainvesticiomoTxovnacdaerToblivimoTxovnac.

  11. π • leqcia 11 -inflaciamisigamomwvevimizezebidaSedegebi Y moTxovnisinflacia: monetaruliimpulsi moTxovnisinflacia • gamomwvevimizezismixedviTganasxvavebenmoTxovnisdamiwodebisinflacias. TavadmizeziTiToeuli am saxisinflaciisSeiZlebasxva-dasxvaiyos. ganvixiloTmoTxovnisinflaca: • monetaruliimpulsi: TufulismasaizrdebaekonomikaSi, maSinizrde- izrdebafasebisdonec. • inflaciisgamomcirdebasaprocentoganakveTiSedegadkiizrdebainvesticiurimoTxovnadaerToblivimoTxovnadaerToblivimoTxovnismrudigadaadgildebamarjvniv. mimdinareperio- odisinflaciamSeiZlebwarmoSvasinflaci-urimolodinidaSedegadizrdebaaramartofasebis done aramedizrdebafasebiszrdistempebicdaerToblivimiwodebismrudi gad-aadgildebazemoT. warmoqmniliinflaciurimolodinikidevzrdissainvesticiomoTxov-nasdaasegrZeldeba, manam, sanamekonomikaardastabilizdebadaerTob-livimoTxovnadamiwodebaerTmaneTsumuSe-vrobisbunebrivdonzeerTmaneTsar Ys π' Ys2 π2 Ys0 π1 YD YD2 π0 YD1 YD0 Y1 Y2 Y gautoldeba.

  12. π • leqcia 11 -inflaciamisigamomwvevimizezebidaSedegebi Y moTxovnisinflacia: fiskaluriimpulsi moTxovnisinflacia • fiskaluriimpulsi: Tusaxelmwifozrdisxarjebs(igulisxmebaromqveynisSigniTzrdis), eszrdiserToblivmoTxovnas(erTobklivimoT-xovnismrudigadaadgildebamarjvniv). am Sokisgamoizrdebafasebis done, racwarmoSobsinflaciurmolodins, risgamocerToblivimiw-odebismrudizemoTgadaadgildebadaiwvevsinflaciiszrdas. magramTuerovnulibankiarzrdisfulismiwodebas, maSinaseTinflaciasmoklevadianixasiaTieqneba. ragdansaxelmwifoxarjebiszrdaSeamci-rebssaprocentoganakveTsdagrZelvadian periodSierToblivmoTxovnasac. eroblivimoTxovnisSemcirebaSeamcirebsfasebisdonesdaekonomikadaubrundebaTavisigrZelvadianiwonasworobiswertils. Ys2 π2 Ys0 π1 π0 YD2 YD1 YD0 Y1 Y2 Y

  13. π • leqcia 11 -inflaciamisigamomwvevimizezebidaSedegebi Y miwodebisinflacia: xelfasi-fasebi miwodebisinflacia • xelfasi-fasebisspirali: TusxvadasxvamizeziTizrdebawarmoebisdanaxarjebiesiwvevs→ warmoebisSemcirebasdamaSasadamemiwodebismrudimarcxnivgadaadgildeba, Sedegad → fasebis done izrdeba → mcirdebarealurixelfasidadasaqmeba→ TuerovmulibankidasaqmebisbunebrivdonezeaRsadgenadzrdisfulismiwodebas → mcirdebasaprocentoganakveTi → izrdebaerToblivimoTxovnadaerToblivimoTxovnismrudigadaadgildebamarjvniv →izrdeba dasaqmebasrulidasaqmebisdonemde → rad- gansxvapirobebiaricvlebamwarmoeblebikvlavzrdianfass → kvlavmcirdeba real -urixelfasi→ kvlavmcirdebadasaqmebada a.S. Ys2 Ys1 π4 π3 π2 Ys0 π1 YD2 π0 YD1 YD0 Y1 Y1 Y'

  14. π • leqcia 11 -inflaciamisigamomwvevimizezebidaSedegebi Y miwodebisinflacia: miwodebisimpulsi miwodebisinflacia • miwodebisimpulsi: TusxvadasxvamizeziTizrdebawarmoebisdanaxar-jebiesiwvevs→ warmoebisSemcirebasdamaSasadamemiwodebismrudimarcxnivgadaadgildeba, → imisaTvisromardauSvansatagnacia(war-moebismuculobisSemcireba), erovnulibankifulismiwodebaszrdis→ mcirdebasaprocentoganakveTi → izrdebaerToblivimoTxovnadaerToblivimoTxovnismrudigadaadgildebamarjvniv →inflaciiszrdisgamowarmoiqmnebainflaciuromolodini →erToblivimiwo-debismrudigadaadgildebamarcxnv, xolo Ys2 • erToblivimoTxovnismrudimarjvniv, magramerToblivimiwodebismrudiufromgrZnobi-area inflaciurimolodinismimarT, vidreerToblivimoTxovnis, Sedegad→ warmoebismoculobamcirdeba, xoloinflaciamatulobs. • movlenasrocawarmoebismoculobamcirdeba, xolofasebis done matulobsstagflaciaewodeba. Ys1 π3 Ys0 π1 YD2 π0 YD1 YD0 Y1 Y1 Y'

  15. i • leqcia 11 -inflaciamisigamomwvevimizezebidaSedegebi M/P senioraJi inflaciisSedegadsimdidrisgadanawileba • senioraJi – fulisbeWdviTmiRebulisargebeli. Tanamedrovepiro-bebSi am tipisSemosavalsZiriTadadsaxelmwifoebiiReben. • TusaxelmwifomgadawyvitasakuTaribiujetisdeficiti (Warbixarebi – ΔG=9 fuladierTeuli) daafinansos, aragadasaxadebisakrefiTdasesxisaRebiTarameddamatebiTifulisdabeWdviT ( ΔM =9 fuladierTeuliT), maSinfasebigrZelvadianperiodSizustadimavetempiTgaizrdebianratempiTacfulismasa: senioraJiTmiRebuliSemosavali i=12% maSasadamesaxelmwifosrealuri SemosavalisenioraJisSedegadiqneba: 100*9%=9 π=9% ir=3% M/P=100

  16. leqcia 11 -inflaciamisigamomwvevimizezebidaSedegebi inflaciisSedegadsimdidrisgadanawileba • sagadasaxadokanonmdeblobainflaciasariTvaliswinebs, risgamocsaxelmwifossasargeblodnawildebagadasaxadisgadamxdelissimdidre. magaliTadTusaSemosavlogadasaxadi 12%-iadaiyideTsaxli 20 000 larad. erTiwlisSemdegfasebi 2-jer gaizardadaTqvengadawyviteTgayidoTsaxli 40 000 larad. TqvenirealuriSemosavaliarSemogivaT. magrammaincmogiwevTgadaixadoT (40 000-20 000)*20% = 4 000 larisaSemosavlogadasaxadissaxiT. • inflaciisSemTxvevaSikreditoridanmevalissasargeblodnawildebaqoneba, radgenesukanasknelivalsdabalimsyidvelobiTunarianifuliTabrunebs.

  17. leqcia 11 -inflaciamisigamomwvevimizezebidaSedegebi ZiriTadicnebebidasakiTxebi • inflacia • Riainflacia • faruliinflacia • filifsismrudi • inflaciurimolodini • fiSerisefeqti • moTxovnisinflacia • miwodebisinflacia • hiperinflacia • inflaciis done • fasebis done • deflacia • dezinflacia • stagnacia • stagflacia • klasikuridiqotomia • fulisneitraloba • senioraJi

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