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M makroekonomika

M makroekonomika. Lleqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari ( IS modeli ). makroekonomikur doneze gamoiyofen saqonlisa da momsaxurebis , warmoebis faqtorebis , fulis da finansur bazrebs .

steven-meyers
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M makroekonomika

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  1. M makroekonomika Lleqcia 3 – saqonlisadamomsaxurebisbazari (IS modeli)

  2. makroekonomikurdonezegamoiyofensaqonlisadamomsaxurebis, warmoebisfaqtorebis, fulisdafinansurbazrebs. saqonlisadamomsaxurebisbazarzenayididagayiduliproduqciismoculobebierTmaneTistolia, magramesarniSnavs, romwaroebulidagayiduliproduqciisraodenobacerTmaneTistoliiqneba. wonasworulmdgomareobaSiwarmoebulidagayiduliproduqciisraodenobaerTmaneTistolia. leqcia 3 – saqonlisadamomsaxurebisbazari(IS modeli) Sesavali

  3. leqcia 3 – saqonlisadamomsaxurebisbazari(IS modeli) Sesavali • wonasworobisSenarCunebadamokidebuliaimaze, Turogoriasaojaxomeurneobebisdamokidebulebamoxmarebismimdinaredonisadmi, mocemulmomentisaTvissawarmooZalTaarsebuliganviTarebisdonispirobebSi. • amitomCveniSeswavlissaganiiqnebasaqonlisadamomsaxurebisbazaarzewonasworobispirobebida is faqtorebi, romlebicgavlenasaxdenenwonasworobisCamoyalibebasadadarRvevaze.

  4. leqcia 3 – saqonlisadamomsaxurebisbazari(IS modeli) erToblivi moTxovna da misi struqtura • saqonlisadamomsaxurebisbazarzemyidvelebisrolSimakroekonomikurdonezegamodian: saojaxomeurneobebi, mwarmoeblebi, saxelmwifodadanarCenimsoflio. essubieqtebiayalibebenmoTxovnassaqonlisadamomsaxurebisbazarze.

  5. leqcia 3 – saqonlisadamomsaxurebisbazari(IS modeli) saojaxomeurneobebis moxmareba kerZoSidainvesticiebi wmindaeqsporti saxelmwifosmoxmareba erToblivimoTxovnadamisistruqtura GDP=s komponentebi GDP = C + I + G + NX

  6. leqcia 3 – saqonlisadamomsaxurebisbazari(IS modeli) erToblivimoTxovnadamisistruqtura Ex 140% G 120% I 100% 80% C 60% 40% 20% 2002 2000 2006 2007 1998 2004 1996 • saqarTvelosmSp-s struqtura 1996-2007 wlebisaTvis

  7. leqcia 3 – saqonlisadamomsaxurebisbazari(IS modeli) moxmareba rogor iReben gadawyvetilebas saojaxo meurneobebi sakuTari moTxovnis formirebisas saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazarze? • arsebobsuamravifaqtori, romelicmaTgadawyvetilebazezemoqmedebs, magaliTad, rogoricaamimdinaregankargvadiSemosavlebi (gadasaxadisaganTavisufaliSemosavlebi), maTiqonebissidide, saprocentoganakveTi, maTimolodinebimomavlTandakavSirebiT, konstituciuriwesrigi, socialuriuTanasworobadasxva. TuCvenSeviswavliT am dasxvafaqtorebisdamiTxovnisdamokidebulebasmiviRebTsxvadasxvamoTxovnismrudebs. • ekonomistebizogadadmoTxovnazefaqtorTadidijgufiszemoqmedebisfaqtsaRiareben. TumcaazrTasxvadasxvaobawarmoiSobaimasTandakavSirebiTTu, romelifaqtoriufrometadmniSvnelovaniaerToblivimoTxovnisgansazRvrisas.

  8. leqcia 3 – saqonlisadamomsaxurebisbazari(IS modeli) moxmareba • keinzianelebimiiCnevenromyvelazeufromniSvnelovanifaqtoriarismimdinaregankargvadiSemosavlebi, • klasikosebikimiiCneven, romadamianebigadawyvetilebasiRebenmkacradsubieqturadda is damokidebuliasaprocenroganakveTsadaadamianTamierdroiskonkretulmomentSiupiretesobebisganawilebaze.

  9. leqcia 3 – saqonlisadamomsaxurebisbazari(IS modeli) moxmarebis da danazogebis funqcia moxmareba • keinzianurikoncefciismixedviTmimdinaremoxmarebadamokidebuliamimdinareSemosavlebzedaigie.w. “ZiriTadifsiqologiurikanoniT”ganisazRvreba, romlismixedviTacadamianebi, SemosavlebiszrdisasmidrekilniariangazardonTavianTimoxmareba. • algebrulad “ZiriTadifsiqologiurikanoni” SemdegiformiTSegviZliaCavweroT: • MPC < 1, daMPC + MPS = 1,sadacMPS – danazogebisadmizRvrulimidrekilebaa. aqedangamomdinareobsdaskvna, romdanazogebimimdinareSemosavlebzeadamokidebuli: S=S(Y) sadac, - avtonomiuri moxmarebaa; - moxmarebisadmi zRvruli miderkileba;

  10. leqcia 3 – saqonlisadamomsaxurebisbazari(IS modeli) moxmarebis funqcia moxmareba • saojaxomeurneobebigadawyvetilebasiRebenaramTeliTavianTiSemosavlismixedviT. aramedmxolodgankargvadiSemosavlis( )mixedviT: • sadac, - proporciulisagadasaxadoganakveTia • Sesabamisad

  11. moxmarebisfunqcia leqcia 3 – saqonlisadamomsaxurebisbazari(IS modeli) C C(y) α Ca β Y moxmareba

  12. leqcia 3 – saqonlisadamomsaxurebisbazari(IS modeli) saqarTvelos moxmarebis funqcia 1997-2007 wlebisaTvis moxmareba 2007 2006 2004 2005 2003 2002 2000 2001 1997 1996 1999 1998

  13. leqcia 3 – saqonlisadamomsaxurebisbazari(IS modeli) investiciebi investiciebi • investiciebisawarmosmimdinaredanaxarjebisagangansxvavebiTSedegsimaveperiodSiariZleva, romelSicigixorcieldeba, aramedmTel rig momdevnoperiodebSi. amitominvesticiuridanaxarjebisSefasebisaswarmoiSobasxvadasxvaperiodisRirebulebebisSedarebisproblema, romelisgadawyvetacdiskontirebissaSualebiTarisSesaZlebeli. • makroekonomikaSidroisfaqtorisgaTvaliswinebamniSvnelovania. saprocentoganakveTi(i) arisnormativi, romlissafuZvelzecdRevandelifulidasaqoneliSeiZlebagaicvalosmomavalSidroisgansazrvrulmomentisaTvisfulsadasaqonelze.

  14. leqcia 3 – saqonlisadamomsaxurebisbazari(IS modeli) saprocento ganakveTi da mocemuli Rirebuleba investiciebi • mocemuliRirebuleba(PV) arismomavalSifulisRirebulebadayvanilidRevandelRirebulebaze. magaliTad, TusaprocentoganakveTi 10%-iamomdevnoperiodSi 1 larismimdinareRirebulebaiqneba≈0.91 lari. zogadadCvenSegviZliaCavweroT: PV= • racniSnavsrom, imisaTvis, rommomaval 1,2,...n periodebSigvqonodaY1, Y2,…YnSemosavali (∑Yi=CFt), sabaziso(nulovan) periodSiundadagvebandebinaPV odenobisTanxa. Y1 Y2 Yn ++…+ (1+i)(1+i)2 (1+i)n

  15. leqcia 3 – saqonlisadamomsaxurebisbazari(IS modeli) investiciebis zRvruli efeqturoba da wminda mocemuli Rirebuleba investiciebi • imisaTvisromgavigoTramdenadRirsinvesticiis(I0) dabandebaamisaTvissaWiroagaviangariSoTrasudris am investiciebiszRvruliefeqturoba(IRR). IRR arisiseTisaprocentoganakveTiromelsacwonasworobaSimoyavsSemdegitoloba: n Io=∑ k=1 • miRebuli, IRR SegviZliaSeudaroT an sxvaaltenatiuliproeqtisIRR-s an sabankodepozitissaprocentoganakveTs(i) anacsxvafinansuriaqtivissaprocentoganakveTs. • meoresmxriv, imisaTvisromgavigoTramdenadRirsinvesticiis(I0) dabandebaamisaTvissaWiroagaviangariSoTwmindamocemuliRirebuleba(NPV). risTvisacsaWiroaerTmaneTsSevudaroT I0 daPV.sadacPV SefasdebaalternatiuliproeqtissaprocentoganakveTiT(IRR) an sabankosaprocentoganakveTiT(i). Yk (1+IRR)k • TuNPV>0 maSin, Rirsinvesticiebisganxorcieleba • TuNPV<0 maSin, arRirsinvesticiebisganxorcieleba NPV= - I0 + PV

  16. leqcia 3 – saqonlisadamomsaxurebisbazari(IS modeli) IRR, i α I investiciebis funqcia investiciebi • maSasademeTunebismierisxvasaprocentoganakveTimcirdeba, maSinizrdebaganxorcielebadiinvesticiuriproeqtebisraodenobac. i2 i1

  17. leqcia 3 – saqonlisadamomsaxurebisbazari(IS modeli) saxelmwifo xarjebi - G saxelmwifoxarjebi • saxelmwifoaxorcielebssaqonlisadamomsaxurebisSesyidvaskerZoseqtorisagandaawarmoebssazogadoebrivdovlaTs. • sabazroekonomikisqveynebSiSeiniSnebamSp-Si saxelmwifoxarjebiswiliszrdistendencia: XX-is dasawyisSisaSualod is Seadgenda 10%, xolo XXI-is dasawyisSi – ukve 40-60%. • SeuZlebeliaagreTvesaxelmwifoxarjebisoptimalobisSefaseba. • saxelmwifoxarjebismoculobas, gardasaxelmwifobiujetistipiurixarjebisa(saerTodaniSnulebissaxelmwifomomsaxurebisTavdacvis, sazogadoebriviwesrigisadausafrTxoebis, garemosdacvisdasxva), gansazRvravsfiskaluripolitikismiznebi. • saxelmwifobiujetidgindebaparlamentismier, rogorcwesierTiwliTadre.

  18. leqcia 3 – saqonlisadamomsaxurebisbazari(IS modeli) saxelmwifoxarjebi • saxelmwifoSesyidvebissaSualebiTgardapirdapirizemoqmedebisasaqonlisadamomsaxurebisbazarze, saxelmwifozemoqmedebsiribadac, gadasexadebisadasesxisaRebis (obligaciebisgamoSvebiT) gziT. • sagadasaxadoganakveTebisadamoculobiscvlilebiTsaxelmwifozemoqmedebsgankargvadSemosavalebzedaSesabamisadsaojaxomeurneobebissamomxmareblomoTxovnaze. • sesxisaRebisSemTxvevaSi- fasianiqaRaldebisbazarzeganxorcielebulioperaciebisSedegadicvlebasaprocentoganakveTidaSesabamisadmwarmoeblebismoTxovnainvesticiebze.

  19. leqcia 3 – saqonlisadamomsaxurebisbazari(IS modeli) wonasworoba saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazarze – IS modeli ISmodeli • ganvixiloT daxuruli ekonomika, maSin: • xolo, wonasworobis piroba aris: • sadac, - aris dagegmili danaxarjebi(erToblivi miwodeba) • - faqtiuri danaxarjebi (erToblivi moTxovna)

  20. leqcia 3 – saqonlisadamomsaxurebisbazari(IS modeli) E Y keinzianuri jvari ISmodeli E Z1 Warbi miwodeba Y Warbi moTxovna Z2 MPC 45o

  21. leqcia 3 – saqonlisadamomsaxurebisbazari(IS modeli) E Y ISmodeli • TuizrdebasagadasaxadoganakveTi, maSinY mrudisdaxriskuTxemcirdebadaTumcirdebasagadasaxadoganakveTi - izrdeba. • TumcirdebamoxmarebisadmizRvrulimidrekileba, maSinY mrudisdaxriskuTxemcirdebadaTuizrdebamoxmarebisadmizRvrulimidrekileba - izrdeba. • Tuizrdebaavtonomiurimoxmareba, investiciebiandasaxelmwifoxarjebi, maSinmrudigadaadgildebazemoTdapiriqiT. E Y2 Y2=E2 ΔA Y1 Y1=E1 45o Y1=E1 Y2=E2

  22. leqcia 3 – saqonlisadamomsaxurebisbazari(IS modeli) i i E, A E Y A Y A ISmodeli 45o Y1 Y2 i1 i2 IS Ca+G • IS modelSi i da Y –is kombinaciebi iZleva IS mrudis wertilebs.

  23. leqcia 3 – saqonlisadamomsaxurebisbazari(IS modeli) ISmodeli ISmrudismdebareobisganmsazRvrelifaqtorebi • IS mrudis daxris kuTxe tolia:

  24. leqcia 3 – saqonlisadamomsaxurebisbazari(IS modeli) ISmodeli ISmrudismdebareobisganmsazRvrelifaqtorebi • IS mrudis gadaadgileba. rom gavigoT ra ganapirobebs IS mrudis paralelur gadaadgilebas amisaTvis unda dauSvaT, rom i=const, maSin SegviZlia Y Semdegnairad gamovsaxoT: • Tu am gamosaxulebas gavawarmoebT, A-s mimarT gveqneba: • maSasadame IS mrudi gadaadgildeba Tu Seicvleba avtonomiuri moxmareba(Ca), kapitalis zRvruli efeqturoba(R), investiciebis mgrZnobiaroba saprocento ganakveTis cvlilebisadmi (li), investiciebis moculoba(I) da saxelmwifo xarebi(G). ΔA-s mamravls avtonomiuri xarjebis multiplikatori ewodeba.

  25. leqcia 3 – saqonlisadamomsaxurebisbazari(IS modeli) ISmodeli multiplikatoruliefeqti • multiplikatorigviCvenebsTuramdeniTgaizrdebaerToblivimoTxovna( Y)avtonomiurixarjebis(A) erTierTeuliTgazrdisSemTxvevaSi. • radgan1-MPCy(1-t) < 1, amitommultiplikatorierTzemetiiqneba. eskiimasniSnavs, romavtonomiurixarjebiserTierTeuliTgazrdisSemTxvevaSierToblivimoTxovnagaizrdebaerTzemetisididiT. • multiplikatorisefeqtisaxsnaSemdeglogikiTSeiZleba: magaliTadsaxelmwifozrdisTavdacvisxarjebs 100 ful. erT. maSin, TumoxmarebisadmizRvrulimidrekileba 0.7-ia, maSinTavdacvissferoSidasaqmebulibidaxarjaven 0.7.100=70 dauSvaTsayofacxovreboteqnikisSesyidvaze, sayofacxovreboteqnikismwarmoeblebiki 0.7.70=49 sakvebiproduqtebisSeZenazedaa.S. zogadisaxiTesprocesiaseCaiwereba: • ΔA –s Tanamamravliusasrulogeometriuliprogresiisjamiaromelictolia: v

  26. leqcia 3 – saqonlisadamomsaxurebisbazari(IS modeli) i i E E Y A Y A ISmodeli fiskaluripolitikadamulTiplikatoruliefeqti ΔG Y1 Y2 i1

  27. leqcia 3 – saqonlisadamomsaxurebisbazari(IS modeli) ZiriTadicnebebi • saqonlisadamomsaxurebisbazari • warmoebisfaqtorebisbazari • fulisbazari • finansuribazari • saojaxomeurneobebi • mwarmoeblebi • saxelmwifo • danarCenimsoflio • wonasworoba • ZiriTadifsiqolofiurikanoni • moxmarebisadmizRvrulimidrekileba • danazogenisadmizRvrulimidrekileba • avtonomiurimoxmareba • gankargvadiSemosavali • mocemuliRirebuleba • investiciebiszRvruliefeqti • wmindamocemuliRirebuleba • sagadasaxadoganakveTi • saxazinoobligacia • keinzinurijvari • ISmodeli • avtonomiuridanaxarjebismultiplikatori

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