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2012 Crop Market Outlook. AFBF Commodity Outlook Conference Baltimore, Maryland Oct. 11, 2012 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB.
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2012 Crop Market Outlook AFBF Commodity Outlook Conference Baltimore, Maryland Oct. 11, 2012 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911
U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB
U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB
U.S. Wheat Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB
U.S. Cotton Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB
Crop Conditions Source: USDA-NASS
Objective Corn Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS
Objective Soybean Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS
Winter Wheat Production Source: USDA-NASS
Other Spring Wheat Production Source: USDA-NASS
Durum Wheat Production Source: USDA-NASS
Projected Cotton Yields Source: USDA-NASS
World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB
World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB
World Wheat Production Source: USDA-WAOB
World Cotton Production Source: USDA-WAOB
Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension
Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension
U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB
Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
Wheat Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
Cotton Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
Ethanol Stocks Source: DOE-EIA
U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption 7.6 bil. gal. 7.4 bil. gal. Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS
Current Corn Futures 6.90 5.93 5.58 Source: CME Group, 10/10/2012
Current Soybean Futures 14.37 12.70 12.29 Source: CME Group, 10/10/2012
Current Wheat Futures 8.09 8.16 Source: KCBOT, 10/10/2012
Current Cotton Futures Source: ICE, 10/10/2012
Total Acreage Shift Source: USDA-NASS
Acreage Shift by State Top: Planted in 2012 Bottom: Change from 2011 Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS
Acreage Shift by Crop Acreage change from 2011 Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS
Thoughts for 2012 and Beyond • Supply/demand concerns • Soil moisture issues • Biofuel and export strength • Worldwide response to drought-induced pricing
Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/