Democratization in Turkey, Authoritarianism in Iran

1. Democratization in Turkey, Authoritarianism in Iran • Turkey • Death of Ataturk in 1938; power taken over by his right-hand man, Ismet Inonu • Continued modernization and industrialization program • Inonu opened the system up to multiple parties in 1946—leading a new party to take power in 1950, the Democratic Party (in contrast to the Republicans) • The military stepped in with a coup d’etat in 1960 and then stepped out of power • Iran under the Shah • Muhammad Reza Shah strongly favored the military; he faced organized opposition from communists and ulema • Had to deal with excessive foreign domination of Iranian interests, particularly the British and Americans • Emergence of a strong nationalist, Mohammed Mosaddiq, in the 1950s; the Iranian military along with the CIA captured Mosaddiq and deposed him • The shah became increasingly dictatorial after 1953 and terrorized its opponents under the new internal security police (SAVAK) • Westernization program in the White Revolution (1963--)

2. Authoritarianism in Syria and Iraq • Syria • Hafez al-Asad an Alawite in the military, linked to the Ba’ath party • Involved with fellow officers in a joint coup in 1963, that brings the Ba’ath to power • Put Alawites in all the positions of power that required real trust • Extensive socialization into Ba’ath party ideology, supported by large network of security services • Brutal crackdown on internal opposition, especially in Hama 1982 by the Islamic Front • Iraq • Turning point was the coup of 1968, in which Saddam Hussein participated as a member of the Ba’ath party • Active drive to eliminate potential rivals; installation of Tikritis in power • Built a one-party state; no real distinction between party and state • Hussein became President of Iraq in 1979 and purged potential rivals

3. What does the state look like? • Characteristics of the State • Large variation in the level of state institutionalization • Problems in state development • Strong kinship ties limited state loyalty and extension of the state apparatus • Pastoral tendencies toward movement and away from land ownership • Arbitrary colonial boundaries • States often reliant on outside powers and financing • State Institutions • Prevalence of patronage ties • Little separation of politics and the state • Difficulties in taxation and internal financing aside from oil rents and international credit • State-led economic development tried to monopolize social/economic forces • Relatively high autonomy, significant variations in capacity

4. Republican Authoritarianism Dynastic Authoritarianism Republican vs. Dynastic modes of authoritarian rule VS

5. Why do authoritarian regimes endure? • How authoritarian is the MENA region? • Multiple types of arguments • Cultural/religious arguments • Low human development • Little domestic opposition/autonomy from the state • Coercive apparatus argument • Fiscal health of the military; very robust expenditures from rentier economies • International support networks—continued after the cold war • Low institutionalization

6. Effects of oil on state formation and structure • State formation in small oil dependents • Started out poor with a political alliance between the ruling tribal class and merchants • Consolidation of oil control by ruling families and cooptation of merchant class through resource distribution • Bureaucracy developed to distribute wealth, not to collect it • No taxation to create firm bonds between state and people • No need to extract military resources from the population • Structure • Political elite pact with economic elite • “Entitlement” state • National identity and historic participation in the state as key to entitlement • Massive importation of regional labor leads to indirect transfer of economic rents throughout the region

7. Effects of oil on regime type • Family regime • Family are a reliable set of allies, but compete over claims to rule • The family was an existing institution that could be transferred into rapidly expanding bureaucracies quickly • Oil strengthened the definition and structure of the ruling families • Authoritarian regime • Oil can help sustain authoritarian regimes • Other types of rent matter too: minerals, international funding, remittances • Resource curse: natural endowments can lead not only to authoritarianism but also to political instability, civil war, and poverty • Three potential effects of oil on sustaining authoritarianism: • Rentier effect • Repression effect • Modernization effect • Oil is more likely to make you authoritarian the poorer that you are to begin • It will have less effect if discovered after political development

8. Key lecture terms—October 3 and 5 Hama incident Saddam Hussein Patronage Autonomous state Bay’a Bashar al-Asad Economic rent Rentier state Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Oil embargo (1973) Remittances Resource curse Muammar Qaddafi Jamahiriyya Sultan Qabus Democratic Party (Turkey) Mohammed Mossadeq White Revolution Ayatollah Khomeini Ba’ath Party Sultan Qabus Mohammed Mossadeq White Revolution Hafez al-Asad