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Economic Forecast Review

Economic Forecast Review. ERCOT Calvin Opheim October 12, 2012. Outline. Forecast Overview Economic Forecast Review. Forecast Overview. To create a long-term load forecast requires: Employment or economic data forecast for each county for the duration of the forecasting time-frame

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Economic Forecast Review

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  1. Economic Forecast Review ERCOT Calvin Opheim October 12, 2012

  2. Outline • Forecast Overview • Economic Forecast Review

  3. Forecast Overview To create a long-term load forecast requires: • Employment or economic data forecast for each county for the duration of the forecasting time-frame • Hourly weather forecast for each weather zone which will be used for each forecasting year These values are used by forecasting models to create the hourly demand forecasts for ERCOT The employment forecast drives the long-term energy and demand forecast since the weather forecast is constant

  4. Economic Assumptions Moody’s provides ERCOT with three county-level economic forecasts: • Base • High economic growth • Low economic growth Which forecast should be used?

  5. Moody’s Non-Farm Employment Scenarios – 11/8/2011 2009 to 2022 AAGR Low 1.8% Base 2.3% High 2.8% 2000 to 2009 0.9% AAGR AAGR – annual average growth rate

  6. Moody’s Non-Farm Employment Scenarios – 11/8/2011 2012 to 2015 AAGR Low 3.2% Base 3.7% High 4.3% 8/30 update 3.3% AAGR – annual average growth rate

  7. Energy and Non-Farm Employment AAGR – annual average growth rate

  8. Historical Non-Farm Employment Forecasts (low case)

  9. Historical Non-Farm Employment Forecasts (base case)

  10. Historical Non-Farm Employment Forecasts

  11. Historical Non-Farm Employment Forecasts

  12. Actual Non-Farm Employment Data

  13. Summary • ERCOT reviews the non-farm employment forecasts • ERCOT has added an additional provider of economic data (Woods and Poole) in 2012 • ERCOT is exploring receiving additional economic forecasts from Moody’s

  14. Questions ON OFF

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