1 / 31

The Semiannual Economic Forecast

The Semiannual Economic Forecast. April 30, 2013 ISM Business Survey Committees. Agenda. Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD Manufacturing Semiannual Forecast Anthony S. Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM Non-Manufacturing Semiannual Forecast

jagger
Download Presentation

The Semiannual Economic Forecast

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. The Semiannual Economic Forecast April 30, 2013 ISM Business Survey Committees

  2. Agenda • Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD Manufacturing Semiannual Forecast • Anthony S. Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM Non-Manufacturing Semiannual Forecast • Bernard Baumohl, The Economic Outlook Group • Q & A

  3. Dr. John H. Hoagland (December 22, 1919 – March 6, 2013) • BA from Oberlin College, MBA from Harvard University, PhD from the Ohio State University • Purchasing Professor at Michigan State University’s Broad College of Business from 1952 through his retirement in 1990 • Co-founder of the Purchasing and Supply Management Executive Seminar at MSU • Awarded an NAPM Professorship • ISM J. Shipman Gold Medal Award recipient

  4. Dr. John H. Hoagland (December 22, 1919 – March 6, 2013) • Paul Harris Fellow from Rotary International • Robert Angell Award honoree from NAPM of Central Michigan • Honorary Alumni Award winner from MSU Alumni Association • Hoagland-Metzler Endowed Chair in Purchasing and Supply Management at MSU • ISM John H. Hoagland Award for Distinguished Service by Academics & Practitioners created to honor Dr. Hoagland

  5. Dr. John H. Hoagland (December 22, 1919 – March 6, 2013) • Passionately championed the advancement and recognition of the ISM Report On Business® and the PMI

  6. The Report On Business® • Surveying manufacturing since 1931 • Approximately 350 respondents • 18 NAICS categories • Weighted by contribution to GDP • Non-manufacturing started in June 1998 • Approximately 350 respondents • 18 NAICS categories • Weighted by contribution to GDP

  7. Percent of Normal Capacity April 2013 80.2% December 2012 77.5% April 2012 81.6 % Manufacturing Semiannual ForecastCurrent Operating Rate Manufacturing

  8. Production Capacity Change Reported for 2012 April 2013 + 6.7% December 2012 + 6.8% Production Capacity Mfg December 2012 + 1.3% Predicted for 2013 Production Capacity Mfg

  9. Capital Expenditures Predicted2013 vs. 2012 Capital Expenditures Mfg April 2013+ 9.1% December 2012 + 7.6%

  10. Purchase Price Changes Reported April 2013 vs. End 2012 Price Changes Mfg April 2013+ 1.4% Predicted End 2013 vs. End 2012 Price ChangesMfg April 2013 + 2.3%

  11. Predicted Employment Change Predicted End 2013 vs. April 2013 Employment Changes Mfg April 2013+ 0.9% Predicted End 2013 vs. End 2012 Employment Changes Mfg December 2012+ 0.8%

  12. Business Revenues (nominal) Predicted 2013 vs. 2012 Business Revenues Mfg April 2013+ 4.8% December 2012+ 4.6%

  13. Predicted Increase in Business Revenues by Industry Manufacturing 1. Wood Products 2. Furniture & Related Products 3. Nonmetallic Mineral Products 4. Petroleum & Coal Products 5. Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components 2013 vs. 2012

  14. PMI 2005 – March 2013

  15. PMI Annual AverageRelative to Midpoint of 50 2012 Average: 51.7% 2013 Average (through March): 52.9%

  16. Percent of Normal Capacity April 2013 84.7% December 2012 85.4% April 2012 85.2% Non-Manufacturing Semiannual ForecastCurrent Operating Rate Non-Manufacturing

  17. Production Capacity Change Reported for 2012 April 2013 + 2.3% December 2012 + 3.4% Production Capacity Non-Mfg December 2012+ 3.2% Predicted for 2013 Production Capacity Non-Mfg

  18. Capital Expenditures Predicted2013 vs. 2012 Capital Expenditures Non-Mfg April 2013 + 3.6% December 2012 + 7.0%

  19. Purchase Price Changes Reported April 2013 vs. End 2012 Price Changes Non-Mfg April 2013 + 1.9% Predicted End 2013 vs. End 2012 Price Changes Non-Mfg April 2013+ 2.4%

  20. Predicted Employment Change Predicted End 2013 vs. April 2013 Employment Changes Non-Mfg April 2013+ 1.3% Predicted End 2013 vs. End 2012 Employment ChangesNon-Mfg December 2012+ 1.3%

  21. Business Revenues (nominal) Predicted 2013 vs. 2012 Business Revenues Non-Mfg April 2013+ 3.5% December 2012 + 4.3%

  22. Predicted Increase in Business Revenues by Industry Non-Manufacturing 1. Construction 2. Transportation & Warehousing 3. Retail Trade 4. Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 5. Other Services 2013 vs. 2012

  23. NMI January 2008 – March 2013

  24. Comparison of PMI and NMI January 2008 – March 2013

  25. NMI Annual AverageAnnual Average Relative to Midpoint of 50 2012 Average: 54.6% 2013 Average (through March): 55.2%

  26. Non-Manufacturing Business Activity IndexAnnual Average Relative to Midpoint of 50 2012 Average: 57.7% 2013 Average (through March): 56.6%

  27. Manufacturing SectorSummary • Operating rate is currently 80.2% of normal capacity. • Production capacity is expected to increase 6.7% in 2013. • Capital expenditures are expected to increase 9.1% in 2013. • Prices paid increased 1.4% through the end of April 2013. • Prices are expected to increase a total of 2.3% for all of 2013, indicating an expected increase in prices of 0.9% for the remainder of the year.

  28. Manufacturing SectorSummary (continued) • Manufacturing employment is expected to increase 0.9% during the remainder of 2013. • Manufacturing revenues are expected to increase 4.8% in 2013. • Overall, manufacturing is expected to continue growing in 2013.

  29. Non-Manufacturing SectorSummary • Operating rate is currently 84.7% of normal capacity. • Production capacity is expected to increase 2.3% in 2013. • Capital expenditures are expected to increase 3.6% in 2013. • Prices paid increased 1.9% through the end of April 2013. • Prices are expected to increase an additional 0.5% over the remainder of the year, for a total 2013 increase of 2.4%.

  30. Non-Manufacturing SectorSummary (continued) • Non-manufacturing employment is expected to increase 1.3% during the balance of 2013. • Non-manufacturing revenues are expected to increase 3.5% in 2013. • The non-manufacturing sector is projected to maintain the course of sustainable growth in 2013.

  31. Bernard Baumohl, Chief Global Economist atThe Economic Outlook Group

More Related