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Existential Demographic Threat : National and International Ramifications

Existential Demographic Threat : National and International Ramifications. A Presentation by PATRIOTS’ FORUM New Delhi PDF version by http://HINDTODAY.COM . St:gic Importance of Demography . “Demography is destiny” Augustus Comte 19th Century French Philosopher.

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Existential Demographic Threat : National and International Ramifications

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  1. Existential Demographic Threat :National and InternationalRamifications A Presentation by PATRIOTS’ FORUM New Delhi PDF version by http://HINDTODAY.COM

  2. St:gic Importance of Demography “Demography is destiny” Augustus Comte 19th Century French Philosopher

  3. Growth Rate of Indian Population : • Religion Data Indian Muslims are growing faster than any other religious community

  4. Global Demographic Scenario 2002 According to the United Nations Population Report 2002, Europe's fertility had fallen far below the replacement level of 2.1. Population of Russia was decreasing by 7000,000 every year and President Vladimir Putin considers it a 'national crisis'. The population of Germany might decline by one-fifth in the next 40 years, Bulgaria's by 38 percent and Romania's by 27 percent. Muslim countries, however, are an exception to the global trend of declining population. In Europe, Albania and Kosovo are growing fast, and so are Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Syria, Pakistan Bangladesh, Afghanistan and Muslims of India, in Asia.

  5. Worldwide Demographic Threat • Many politicians and analysts do not understand the weird phenomenon of demographic decimation which destroyed the multicultural ethos of Lebanon, Kosovo, Bosnia, etc., solely due to fast growth of Muslim population which outpaced the Christian growth. Finally these countries/territories were overwhelmed by Muslim majorities. A similar demographic change now threatens the pluralistic ethos of Macedonia and France. Even Germany feels threatened. • In MacedoniaMuslims constituted barely 8% of total population in 1900, but today their percentage has risen to 33. • In France between 1970-90 the Christian population declined by 2 millions from 42,558.000 to 40,627,000 while the Muslim population multiplied nearly 2 ½ times, rising from 1,35,3000 to 3,85,0000

  6. Fact File India In India the growth : of Hindu population declined by 3.4 percent in the four decades between 1961-71 and 1991-2001, while the percentage decline of Muslims was merely 1.9 percent . The growth : of Muslims, therefore, continues to be much higher in India and percentage of their decline is far less.

  7. Indian Demographic Scenario To understand the long term implications of the fast-paced demographic changes, it is necessary to consider the following facts gleaned from the data of seven censuses held in India since 1951

  8. Implications for Indic Civilization Since independence there has been a relentless increase in the population percentage of only one community, namely, the Muslims, to the exclusion of every other religious group. The percentage growth of all other communities, e.g. Hindus, Sikhs, Buddhists, Jains and Christians have been in a declining mode. On top of it, since 1981 the Muslim population growth has gathered speed and is now in a massive fast forward mode.

  9. Implications for Indic Civilization • A preliminary analysis of Census 2011 shows that the percentage of Hindu population has declined to 80 percent or less. It was about 86 percent in 1951. • Census 2001 had disclosed that the decadal growth : of Muslims was around 36 percent, while the Hindu growth : had declined from 23 percent to 20 percent. 3. A convoluted political controversy was created on the ground that no census had taken place in J. & K. state in 1991 and in 1981 in Assam. The government resorted to fudging of census 2001, by omitting from census data of 3.67 crore people living in Jammu & Kashmir and Assam, the 2 states having high Muslim population. No census could be held in Assam in 1981 due to disturbed conditions, but that did not result in any political ruckus or fudging of 1981 census data.

  10. Threat to National Security The most extraordinary aspect of this doctoring of the Census 2001 was politically-motivated deletion with retrospective effect of the population of two security- sensitive States of Jammu & Kashmir and Assam from every census held since 1961. Such tampering with truth had never been done in the history of any democratic country. That such fudging was done when the Indian Prime Minister happened to be an eminent Economist was never condemned by the media.

  11. Implications for Indic Civilization It was highlighted in a lucid article by two well known professional demographers, late P. N. Mari Bhatt and A. J. Francis Zavier, in 2005 that "the fertility of Muslims, which was about 10 per cent higher than that of Hindus before independence, had grown in 2001 to 25 to 30 per cent higher than the Hindu :". [Source: Role of Religion in Fertility Decline: The Case of Indian Muslims, Economic & Political Weekly January 29, 2005]. It means that Muslim population is now growing at a : nearly 45 percent faster than the Hindus.

  12. Implications for Indic Civilization Late Mari Bhatt and Francis Zavier, two well-known demographers pointed out that the assertion made in a section of English media that census 2001 had revealed a higher reduction in the growth : of Muslims than Hindus was incorrect. The decline in Hindu growth : was higher at 12.2 percent as against 10.3 percent decline in Muslim growth

  13. Implications for Indic Civilization There is no truth in the assertion that higher Muslim fertility was due to their poverty or illiteracy. Since 36 percent Muslims live in urban areas, as against only 26 percent Hindus, and Muslims had a higher life expectancy at birth than Hindus (by 1.2 years according to 2 NFHS Surveys), logically their fertility should have been lower than Hindus. • But the fact remains that fertility of Muslim continues to be higher despite their greater urbanization. • As highlighted by late Mari Bhatt and Francis Zavier, by 2101 (during next 95 years) the population of Muslims will grow by a whopping 130 percent, while that of Hindus will grow only by 50 percent within the same time-span.

  14. Implications for Indic Civilization The acceptance of family planning by Muslims is lower at least by 25 percent than Hindus and other communities. The real reason is 'religion'. The two professional demographers have described the community's higher fertility as "Muslim effect", a somewhat colourful, but truthful, expression. [Source: p.397 of Eco. & Pol. Weekly of January 29,2005]. • Interestingly, late Mari Bhatt and Francis Zavier further highlighted the fact that in non-Muslim countries there is a general trend towards higher growth : of Muslims.

  15. Implications for Indic Civilization • According to NFHS Survey-2 (National Family Health Survey-2 of 1998-99) in Kerala where the literacy level of 2 communities is almost equal (and due to large Gulf remittances economically Muslims are better off than Hindus) the growth : of Muslims was higher than Hindus by almost 45 percent. • The National Family Health Survey-2 (1998-99) had revealed that on an average every Muslim woman was giving birth to 1.1 more children than her Hindu or Sikh counterpart

  16. Implications for Indic Civilization 1.Statement 7 of Census 2001 Religion Data Report (page Xlii) which gives the religion-wise breakup of children in the 0-6 years age group. It showed that the percentage of Muslim cohorts (a term used in demographic parlance) was 21 percent higher than the Hindu 0-6 years cohorts. 2. Muslim population in the crucial 0-6 years age group was 21 percent higher than Hindus, giving Muslims a head start advantage of 7.6 percent over the Hindus, as and when these cohorts enter reproductive age, say between 2012 and 2016. This single page of Census 2001 Report tells us all about the demographic crisis endangering India, anytime after 2021 or latest by 2031. Will it lead to a civil war between 2 colliding civilisations?

  17. Implications for Indic Civilization These 0-6 yrs old cohorts (enumerated in 2001) will become reproductively active between 2012 and 2016 and then continue to reproduce for the next 30-40 years. With a 21 percent higher cohort population and at least 25 percent lower acceptance of family planning, the growth in Muslim population during the next 4 decades is likely to become far more fast-paced. It is simple arithmetic . Even a high school student can understand it and do it.

  18. Implications for Indic Civilization A further analysis of the 0-6 years cohorts data of Census 2001 will surprise you, nay, even shock you. It reveals that out of 35 States and Union Territories listed in Statement 7, the percentage of Muslim 0-6 years cohorts is higher than percentage of Hindus in as many 31 States and Union Territories. It means that from 2012 onwards the Muslim population in 31 States and U.Ts. Will grow much faster than that of Hindus.

  19. International Ramiifications In the year 1900 the Muslims constituted only 12 percent of the world population; they grew to 18 percent in 1992-93 (when Huntington published his first thesis on the clash of civilizations); by 2003 the Muslims became 20 percent of the global population. And by 2025, barely 13 years away from now, they might constitute 30 percent of the world population. [Source: Spangler, TheDecline of the West, cited by Samuel Huntington]. • According to some demographic estimates, Muslims might constitute anything between 37 to 40 percent of the world population by 2100 AD. Correspondingly in recent year the numbers of jihads worldwide have also multiplied in tandem with the growth in Muslim population, our next door neighbor Thailand being the latest entrant to the growing list of fault line conflict zones.

  20. 1. The Pew Research Center Report of 2010 revealed that Muslims were growing worldwide at 1.5 percent, while the non-Muslims were growing at 0.7 percent per annum. Implications For Indic Civilisation and Civil Society Worldwide

  21. Implications for Indic Civilization Niall Ferguson had drawn further attention to the fact that due to low fertility rates of Christians and increasing life expectancy, by 2050 one in every three Italians, Spaniards and Greeks is likely to be 65 years or older . So the 'old Europe' will become much more older and effete. Muslims will have much higher proportion of youth. He also highlighted the fact that the birth rates of Muslim societies (i.e., including those Muslims who live in non-Muslim countries) were more than double of European Christians.

  22. Implications for Indic Civilization The well known demographer, Prof. Ashish Bose, has estimated that presently in 49 districts Muslims already constitute more than 30 percent of population. (Source: Economic and Political Weekly, Mumbai, January 29, 2005, p.371 (table 4). Calculation made in the light of the Muslim growth : of the last two decades, shows that Muslims will attain majority status in all these 49 districts, any time between 2091 and 2111, perhaps even earlier. Just now Muslims are in majority in 12 districts to which another 37 may be added by the end of the century, even earlier. What might happen thereafter is anybody's guess. It has the potential to give a massive fillip to the growing Jihadi fervor in the sub-continent, in view of rapid radicalisation of Muslim youth.

  23. Implications for Indic Civilization The foregoing cold facts should ring a loud alarm bell good enough to wake up all those who want to ensure long term survival of secularism in India. The problem has global dimensions, too. • While the world has woken up to the the existential demographic threat, we Indians continue to slumber under the influence of dope-laced lullabies broadcast by communists and sham-secularists from their multiple bandstands.

  24. Implications for Indic Civilization A detailed analysis of the 0-6 years old cohorts is given below. It is self explanatory. PROPORTION OF 0-6 YEARS COHORTS TO TOTAL POPULATION BY RELIGIOUS COMMUNITIES - Census 2001 AT ALL INDIA LEVEL . ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- India. All religious HindusMuslimsChristiansSikhsBuddhistsJainsOthers communities All India 15.9 15.6 18.7 13.5 12.8 14.4 10.6 18.0 The percentage of Muslim 0-6 years cohorts in 2001 was 21 percent higher than the Hindus and almost 50 percent higher than the 0-6 years Sikh cohorts

  25. Demographic Threat to Indian Civilization Demography Can Destroy Democracy As a rule, democracies are more vulnerable to the dynamics of population change, because elections are won and lost on basis of headcount. India flaunting strong democratic tradition since long, is therefore, highly vulnerable to death by demographic decline of Hindus and Sikhs.

  26. Demographic Threat to Indian Civilization Demography and Democracy In the demographic game the democrats are at a disadvantage because while in power by virtue of their ideology they are duty bound to give Islamists the full freedom and rights, the Islamists are under no such obligation when they come to power. (Bernard Lewis, well-known strategic analyst and scholar of Islam)

  27. Demographic Threat to Indian Civilization Myth of Muslims Being Disadvantaged In terms of four globally accepted human development indices, namely, the incidence of Infant Mortality,Child Mortality, Life Expectancy at Birth, and Degree of Urbanization, Muslim are far better off than Hindus. Infant and Child Mortality in India ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source Infant Mortality Child Mortality Hindus Muslims Hindus Muslims ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Census (1991) 74 68 97 91 NFHS-1 (1992-93) 90 77 124 106 NFHS- 2 (1998-99) 77 59 107 83 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Note : NFHS stands for National Family Health Survey. Three such surveys have been held, one in 1992-93, the second in 1998-99 and the third in 2005-2006.

  28. Demographic Threat to Indian Civilization Bogey 1: Sob-story of Muslims Being Disadvantaged Degree of Urbanization Percentage living in Urban Areas: Hindus Muslims 26% 36% [Source: Census 2001 (Religion Data Report)] Average Life Expectancy at Birth Hindus Muslims 1998 -99 61.2 yrs 62.6 yrs [Source: NFH Surveys 1992-93 & 1998-99] • 2005-6 65 yrs 68 yrs. (Source: NFH • Survey-3 2005-2006)

  29. Bogey 2: Incidence of Infant & Child Mortality • Infant Mortality – In 1998 30% Higher amongst Hindus • Child Mortality- In 1998 29% Higher amongst Hindus It is universally recognized that high incidence of infant and child mortality is a direct consequence of poor nutritional intake resulting from acute poverty and inadequate medical care. It clearly proves that a great majority of Hindus (mostly living in rural areas, especially marginal farmers and landless laborers) are economically more disadvantaged than Muslims.

  30. Difference in child mortality between the Hindus and the Muslims appears to have widened between 1991 and 1999 The NFHS-1 held in 1992-93 revealed that the incidence of child mortality among Hindus was 124 per 1000 against 106 for Muslims which translated into a higher incidence of nearly 17 percent among Hindus. And NFHS -2 held in 1998-99 disclosed even a higher increase in child mortality of Hindus vs. Muslims, the differential graph rising to 24 percent - the proportion being 107 cases of child mortality among Hindus and only 83 among Muslims for every 1000 live births.

  31. The Truth ……. • Apparently there was a substantial decline in the socio-economic status of Hindu community between 1991 and 1999 • That alone could explain the sharp rise in child mortality of the community. It may be mentioned that in terms of census 2001 nearly 74 percent Hindus lived in rural areas which had witnessed thousands of suicides by impoverished peasantry.

  32. Myth 2: Degree of Urbanization • According to Census 2001 (Religion Data Report) the proportion of Hindus living in urban areas is 26 percent while that of Muslims living in urban areas is 36 percent far ahead of Hindus by a whopping 10 percent. • It is a universally established fact that the urban population, or city-dwellers, are socio-economically more advanced and better placed than their rural counterparts. On this score, too, Muslims are socio-economically far ahead of Hindus.

  33. Bogey 3: Average Life Expectancy at Birth • According to NFHS-2, held in 1992-93, the crude death : per 1000 was 9.6 for the Hindus and 8.9 for the Muslims which meant that the crude death rate of Muslims was lower than Hindus by nearly 13 percent. • Two NFH Surveys held in 1992-93 and 1998-1999 and found that the life expectancy at birth for Muslims was 62.6 compared with 61.4 for the Hindus giving Muslims an advantage of 1.2 years vis a vis Hindus. The NFHS-3 showed that longevity had risen to 68 years for Muslims, but was 65 years for Hindus. The gap in life expectancy of Muslims has risen by 5.4 yrs, while of Hindus increased by a meagre 3.6 years. • It is globally accepted that a community which has better nutritional intake, better economic status and health care facility will live longer.

  34. Bogey 4-Comparative Literacy Average • According to Statement 8 of Census 2001 (Religion Data Report, p.Xliii) there at least 13 states and U.Ts., where Muslims are ahead of Hindus in the matter of literacy. * Even female literacy among Muslims is higher than Hindus in 13 states, including Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka & Gujarat. • Interestingly as revealed by Statements 8a and 8b of Census 2001 (Religion Data Report, pp. xliv and xlv respectively) in Andhra Pradesh the percentage of literacy, both among males and females, was higher among Muslims than Hindus. • In that State the percentage of male literacy is higher by 7%. Similarly the percentage of female literacy for Muslims was higher by 10%.

  35. What is Real, What is Unreal? Facts conclusively show that in terms of at least 4 globally accepted standard human development indicators, Muslims are better off than the Hindus. Please assess the truth yourself, as advised in Brihadranayakam Upanishad: “Asato ma sadagamaya” which means: “Lead me from the unreal to the real”.

  36. Bogey 5: Poverty Level and Per Capita Income • The low per capita income of Muslims is essentially a direct consequence of their non-acceptance of small family norm and abysmally low work participation by their womenfolk. • The larger size of Muslim households when compared with their Hindu counterparts by at least one additional member which increases the dependence burden of the Muslim householders. • The same survey further revealed that on an average a Muslim woman was giving birth to 1.1 child more than her Hindu counterpart . • Muslims being more urbanized, a higher percentage of the community are now employed in small scale industries (e.g., carpet weaving, embroidering, garment stitching, etc.) and occupations like iron-smithy, tailoring and other sundry professions.12 Most of these trades involve acquisition of substantial occupational skills which gene: fairly good income, invariably better than that of the indigent peasantry, because of growing opportunities in cities and towns as a result of liberalization in recent years Yet many of them manage to get counted as 'unemployed' .

  37. The Real Story • An analysis of the respective percentages of the two communities in the 0-6 years age group of cohorts (Statement 7 on page Xlii of Census 2001 Religion Data Report) makes it quite clear that the existing fast paced growth of Muslim population is likely to register a huge quantum jump in the coming decades, say within the next 20-40 years . • At all India level the percentage of Muslim cohorts in 0-6 years age group is 18.7 as compared with 15.6 cohorts among Hindus. This 21 percent higher proportion of Muslim cohorts vs. the Hindu cohorts, coupled with low acceptance of family planning by the community (at least to the extent of 25 percent) is poised to further speed up growth in Muslim percentage as well as numbers across the country. During the next 95 years (i.e. by the year 2101) Muslim population will grow by 130% while of Hindus will grow only by 50 percent. (Source: Mari Bhat and Francis Zavier, Eco. & Pol. Weekly, January 29, 2005).

  38. More Facts • An overwhelming majority of Hindus, being agriculture-dependant, live in rural areas where Monthly Per Capita Expenditure (MPCE) per person is a measly sum of Rs. 503. • According to a first time conducted "Situation Assessment Survey of Farmers" carried out by the National Sample Survey Organization in 2003 (59th Round) the MPCE of farming households, calculated at Rs 503 in the year 2003 was arrived at by clubbing together both the prosperous and the marginal farmers. • It was barely Rs 75 above the Rural Poverty Line and 55 percent of this amount had to be spent on food, while clothing, footwear, fuel and light take up close to 18 percent. The rural poor, mostly Hindus, marginal farmers and landless workers are starving the most.

  39. The Biggest Worry …. • The biggest cause of the poor development indices of the majority community, the Hindus, is their abnormally high concentration in rural areas which are now in a state of near terminal decline due to prolonged governmental neglect . • During recent decades the contribution of agricultural sector to India's economy declined sharply by 25 percent and during the ninth and tenth five year plans (i.e. a span of 10 years) the agricultural sector recorded a pathetically poor growth rate of 2-4 percent. That has led to rapid impoverishment of rural population and its impact can be widely seen in growing numbers of suicides by agriculturists.

  40. The Fall….. There has been a spectacular growth in urban-based sectors like industry, services and export. For instance, during recent years the growth in GDP (Gross Domestic Product) averaged between 7 to 8 percent. But the benefits of higher growth in the Services Sector, Industry and Exports were shared mainly by the urban population in which the proportion of Hindus is only 26 percent while that of Muslims is 36 percent. Perhaps that should explain the higher Incidence of infant and child mortality in Hindu households vis a vis their Muslim counterparts.

  41. The Truth….. • Thus on overall assessment in terms of three globally accepted basic human development indices namely, the incidence of infant and child mortality, degree of urbanization and life expectancy at birth, the Hindus happen to be far more disadvantaged than the Muslims. • Relatively lower per capita income of Muslims is largely due to non acceptance of small family norm and poor work participation by their womenfolk. Unfortunately both these factors are controlled rather rigidly by Mullahs and religious scholars of the community. Even Justice Sachar dare not comment on these incontrovertible facts. He chose to remain silent, but why?

  42. The Truth is out… The foregoing facts clearly show that there is no justification for classifying the Muslims as an economically disadvantaged group, especially when they have better human development indices than the Hindus. Prima facie the appointment of Justice Sachar Committee was motivated by the desire to prepare grounds for religion-based reservations in pursuit of the pernicious vote bank politics of India.

  43. Questions YOU Must Ask … 1. Is it possible by any rational process of thinking, or scientific analysis, to classify as ‘disadvantaged’ a group which has superior human development indices like infant and child mortality, higher degree of urbanization and better life expectancy at birth than the majority community? 2. It is simple common sense that only a community which has higher nutritional intake and access to better medical facilities will have superior human development indices.

  44. Questions You Must Ask … • 3.Can there be any constitutional justification for providing reservations to a community solely because it happens to be a minority? Will that not constitute a flagrant violation of the right to equality enshrined in Articles 14 and 15 which stipulate that the state must treat all citizens in an equitable and just manner? • 4. Is it ethically and politically correct to dole out benefits like reservations and lucrative financial packages to such a group simply because they happen to be an aggressively organized vocal minority, while sidelining the claim of the pathetically poor rural population?

  45. The Hidden Agenda - Preparng Ground for Muslim Reservations. • 1. The Sachar Committee remained busy interacting mostly with • Muslim activists for preparing its report. Prima facie its Chairman was not interested in taking cognizance of any research-based truth . 2. The competitive battle for Muslim votes by the self-styled secular parties during the 2012 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections has exposed the fraud perpetrated on Indian people by Sachar Report .

  46. Demographic Threat to Indian Civilization Conclusions: • An attempt has been made to put together some bare facts. • These facts speak for themselves. • We are available for offering clarification and providing more inputs during the course of discussion, or in any subsequent interaction. • If you feel convinced by the foregoing facts that there is a grave threat to India’s civilizational identity and its democratic and pluralistic ethos please treat this as a ‘WAKE UP CALL’ and alert all your friends, relations and neighbors. • Why did Azzam Khan want a Muslim Pradesh in U.P.? Why did Dr. Omar Khalidi wants the creation of 5 Muslim-dominated‘Enclaves’ or Union Territories. Please search for true answers.

  47. 1. STAND UP FOR TRUTH 2. SAVE MOTHERLAND 3. SAVE INDIA’S CIVILISATIONAL IDENTITY THANKS

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