The Evolution of a CDR: Proposed Systematic Program

1. The Evolution of a CDR:Proposed Systematic Program Jeffrey L. Privette, NOAA On behalf ofThe Joint Agency Study on the Climate Impacts of the Nunn-McCurdy NPOESS Certification

2. CDR Status Quo • NASA, NOAA, USGS and other organizations have developed some CDRs as ad hoc research products (e.g., SST, Ozone, earth radiation budget) • Current investments (Approx. # of grants) • NASA: ROSES’06 (A.15; Starting Fall 2007): 20 • NOAA: CCDD (Stratified starts since 2004): 4 • NOAA: SDS (Started Summer 2007): 7 • Other activities indirectly supported through mission and Research & Application Program investments

3. Future CDR Support Outlook • NASA, NOAA and USGS are studying the potential of NRC Decadal Survey missions to provide and/or advance CDRs • Post-mission funding of EOS-based products not clear • CDR production, refinement, reprocessing is not in any operational agency budget • CDR storage (CLASS) and distribution (Data Centers) is not in NOAA budget

4. Joint-Agency CDR Program Goals • Incorporate NRC input • Devise and cost an end-to-end program • CDRs and Climate Information Records (CIRs) • Systematic and Coherent • Comprehensive (GCOS, IPCC, NRC, CCSP, etc.) • Sustainable • Stakeholder and Science Need-driven • Build on current investments and expertise • Interagency and International  Need systematic program for evolving CDRs

5. Planning Development Path

6. Program Architecture • CDRs develop through overlapping Research (RM) and Operational Missions (OM) • Joint agency cooperation on all science & applications of each mission • Research-to-Operations occurs as function of CDR maturity • Developed 6-Level Maturity Matrix to define path • Not all sensor products will become Level 6 CDRs • Research programs continue developing algorithm alternatives and advancements to challenge “released” Level 6 CDRs • 3 community groups coordinate and manage CDR evolution • Working Group: Science team plans and executes development of CDR (1 per CDR subset) • CDR Science Advisory Board: Senior climate scientists review and prioritize CDR planning and development • Steering Committee: Government senior scientists and managers coordinate budgetary matters and research-to-operations transitions

7. Core Activities in CDR Evolution • Sensor calibration and characterization • Algorithm development and refinement • Continuing incubation of algorithm alternatives that may eventual replace previous “standard” • Product (Re-)Processing • Research & Operational agencies co-generate Maturity Level 3-4 products as part of transition • Assures transition readiness • Product validation and use-driven evaluation • Archive, Distribution, Documentation

8. Notional Evolution of a CDR

9. Research and Operational Mission Cost Profiles Launch Peaks reflect higher intensity periods associated with a new product version, typically leading to a step-up in maturity level.

10. Cost Estimation Approach • Notional CDR lifecycle provides schedule and activity breakdown • NASA historical cost data estimates cost/activity • Separate Research and Operational cost profiles • Algorithm maturity* determines relative year in notional CDR lifecycle • Production complexity* determines multiplier of notional cost profile • CDR “ramp-up” rate treated as independent variable • Required CDR prioritization strawman *Maturity and complexity estimates from joint agency sensor expert teams (names provided in April Panel brief)

11. CDR Maturity Matrix:Determines Start-Up Phase

12. Complexity Serves As Multiplier of Notional Cost Profile • Factors: • Number, quality & diversity of input streams • Resolutions (vertical, horizontal, temporal, spectral) • Algorithm complexity • Algorithm outputs (#CDRs) • Cal/Val complexity and cost

13. CDR Prioritization Strawman • Current cost scoping required prioritization strawman • CDR list from joint agency sensor expert teams • Name, Complexity • Ranking followed sequential sorting: • Maturity: In development? • Significance to Global Change • First launch date • Caveats • FCDRs deliberately ranked above TCDRs per sensor • Forcing and State variables funded at 1:1 rate • In practice, CDR Science Advisory Board develops prioritization • 5-7 senior climatologists from community

14. TCDR Prioritization Sample etc. (28 CDR bundles in total) CDR bundle is costing convenience to group CDRs typically produced from the same or similar algorithm(s). Primary sensor is a costing convenience to associate each CDR with one and only one NPOESS era sensor. It is recognized that data from multiple satellite sensors, and in situ data, are often used to determine a CDR. Significance to Global Change follows from a review of IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007). In development: Based on NASAROSES ’06 A.15 and NOAA SDS 2007 selections. First launch considers only NPP/NPOESS era launches per the mandate of the NPOESS Climate Recovery activity. State and Forcing variable bundles, as defined by CCSP Strategic Plan Chapter 12, are prioritized at a 1:1 ratio.

15. Different Ramp-Up Rates Costed ■ Fast Rate: All reach Stage 6 Maturity Cost ■ Slow Rate: Most reach Stage 6 Maturity ■ Proof-of-Concept: Some low complexity CDRs reach Stage 6 Maturity CDR Coverage (Full Maturity By 2026)

16. Program Ramp-Ups: Bounds 17 TCDRs by 2026 75 TCDRs by 2026

17. Cost Subsidies Under Study • Cost model estimates total cost of program • Core-funded agency activities can reduce new funding needs • NASA EOS and Research & Application programs • Integrated Program Office activities

18. Notional Lead Roles and Responsibilities

19. Status and Next Steps • OSTP/OMP briefed in September • Subsidization analysis now underway • Will seek NRC Review in Fall • Writing Phase 2 revision of the OSTP Assessment (a.k.a. White Paper)

20. Thank You Joint Team Members NASA – Bryant Cramer, Jack Kaye, Dave Young, Charles Taylor, Thomas Jasin NOAA – Chet Koblinsky, Mike Tanner, Jeff Privette, Tom Karl, John Bates, Mike Bonadonna, Kandis Boyd, Jim Oneal, Gary Davis, Brent Smith USGS - DeWayne Cecil

21. Working Definitions • Working Definitions of Climate Products for NASA-NOAA Discussion 1) Climate Data Record (CDR): A Climate Data Record is a time series of measurements of sufficient length, consistency, and continuity to determine climate variability and change [NRC, 2005]. CDRs typically use data from different satellites and sensors extending from present back to the beginning of the relevant satellite observation period. For the NPOESS Climate Capability Restoration objectives, CDRs satisfy three additional characteristics: • CDRs are approved and prioritized by the CDR Science Advisory Team (TBD) composed of climate science leaders representing government, academia and industry; Group reviews of the CDR every 3-5 years to ensure it meets objectives and remains a priority or should be adjusted or sunsetted. • CDRs’ geophysical retrieval algorithms, underlying theoretical bases, and heritage products are mature, validated and proven useful in downstream research and applications. • A CDR wholly or partially satisfies provision of a CCSP Earth Climate System Observation or a GCOS Essential Climate Variable, acknowledging that these consensus lists will change with time. 2) A Climate Information Product is a time series derived from CDRs and related long-term measurements to provide specific information about an environmental phenomena of particular importance to science and society. CIRs are often designed to convey key aspects of complex environmental phenomena in a manner useful to a variety of applications of particular interest to certain stakeholder communities. • Examples of NOAA CIRs include:  El Nino Occurrence/Persistence/Magnitude, Antarctic Ozone Hole Area and Magnitude, Drought Indices and Occurrence/Persistence/Magnitude, Hurricane Intensity and Tracks, Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index, Various Drought Indices

22. CDR Production Occurs Within An End-to-End Program

23. CDR Development Requires Different Expertise, Data Paths and Resources Climate Data Records Data (Direct & Remotely Sensed) Time-tagged Geo-Referenced Sensor DataRecords (SDRs) Converted to Bio-Geophysical Variables Homogenization and Calibration EnvironmentalData Records(EDRs) Fundamental Climate Data Records (FCDRs) Climate Data Records or Homogenized Time Series Converted to Bio-Geophysical Variables Thematic Climate Data Records (TCDRs) Climate Information Records (CIRs)

24. Example CDR Prioritization(Sort By IPCC, Algorithm Investment, Launch)

25. Candidate Climate Information Records from Mitigated NPOESS Climate Information Record (CIR) A Climate Information Product is a time series derived from CDRs and related long-term measurements to provide specific information about an environmental phenomena of particular importance to science and society. CIRs are often designed to convey key aspects of complex environmental phenomena in a manner useful to a variety of applications of particular interest to certain stakeholder communities.

26. Draft Implementation In NPP Era