Understanding Public Opinion Dynamics: Influence on Policy Decisions

1. : Opinions, Interests, and Organizations Chapter 7: Public opinion

2. How people feel about different things Public Opinion Abortion is bad Abortion is good Gun control is bad Gun control is good Same sex marriage is bad Same sex marriage is good A bigger military is bad A bigger military is good Welfare is good Welfare is bad

3. There are many shifting publics! Public Opinion Abortion Gun control Abortion Gun control Welfare Welfare Same sex marriage Same sex marriage

4. Is poorly informed about government • Doesn’t care about MOST public policy positions • But, it good at using cues which favor the positions they do care about when supporting or opposing: • Policies • Parties • Candidates The American Citizenry

5. Did not want the government OVERLY responsive (reactive) to public opinion Wanted the government keeping an eye on the BIG ISSUES Founding feelings

6. Shielding the government from Public Opinion • Divided government as a check • Federalism • Separation of Powers • Bill of Rights • Independent Judiciary • Many different publics working against each other Founding feelings

7. Survey of public opinion • Keys to good polling • Ask questions which people can understand • Word the questions fairly, take care to eliminate leading words and bias Polling A true American’s favorite colors are red, white, and blue. Are these your favorite colors?

8. Keys to good polling • Get good numbers (1,065 minimum) • RANDOM sampling • Any given adult has an equal shot at being questioned • Subgroups are represented in proportion to its population numbers polling

9. Sampling Error • Natural deviation is inevitable • 3% is a good goal • Makes very close elections difficult to predict Polling

10. Big/national elections • Polling is fairly accurate • Exit polls • Random voters leaving the voting station • Random voting districts • VERY accurate! Polling

11. Saliency – level of concern on an issue Stability – the consistency of opinion over time Opinion-Policy CONGRUENCE – how “in sync” the government policy is with public opinion Opinion Vocabulary

12. Political Socialization – process by which people develop political views Political Elites – people with a larger share of political power or interest or both Opinion vocabulary

13. The Family • GREATLY affects party identification in young adults • Effect wanes as one matures • Those with STRONG party identification are more likely to pass along the party affiliation • Growth of Independents comes at a cost – losses by Democrats and Republicans Political socialization

14. Religion Most pronounced on social issues Political Socialization

15. CLEAVEAGE – A critical division in opinion, beliefs, interests, etc. as leading to opposition between political groups Cleavages (define on top of the first page of charts)

16. Gender • Since the mid-1960s • Men becoming more Republican • Women have stayed relatively consistent • Political issues separating men and women • Gun control • Government size • Spending on social programs • Gay rights cleavages

17. Schooling • College • BIG impact • Tends to make you more liberal • Higher education • Increased political involvement • Increased voting Cleavages

18. Schooling • Modern graduates • Not as clearly defined as in the 60s • Slacker generation (hahahaha) • Less likely to read news articles • More likely to • Tune into talk radio • Get information from the Internet cleavages

19. Class • Not as pronounced as in Europe cleavages

20. Use your notes to complete • Schooling • Gender in your packet. Check your answers with a partner when you are finished. Cleavages

21. Race: Latino Cleavages

22. Use your text to complete • Race: Whites • Race: African Americans in your packet. Check your answers with a partner when you are finished. Cleavages

23. Race: Asian Americans Cleavages

24. Regional Cleavages

25. Political ideology – A consistent set of beliefs about what policies the government should follow Ideological constraint – how consistent one’s political opinion on an issue remains over time or from one issue to another issue Political ideology

26. Liberalism – an active central government willing to engage in the economy and social welfare • Conservatism • Free market economy over government regulation • State government control over central government control • Individual choice over government control Liberalism & conservatism

27. Expanding the model beyond left or right

28. Pure liberal ideology • Liberal on economic issues • Government should work to reduce inequality • Government should regulate business • Government should tax the rich heavily • Liberal on issues of personal conduct • Allow abortions • Protect the rights of the accused • Broadest possible freedoms of expression • Pure liberal traits • Young • College educated • Nonreligious Expanding the model beyond left or right

29. Pure conservative ideology • Conservative on economic issues • Cut back on welfare • Allow the market to allocate goods and services • Keep taxes low • Conservative on issues of personal conduct • Lock up criminals • Curb “anti-social” conduct • Pure conservative traits • Older • Higher income • White • Mid-westerner Expanding the model beyond left or right

30. Libertarian ideology • Conservative on economic issues • Small weak government with little control over economic matters • Liberal on issues of personal conduct • Small weak government with little control over personal conduct • Libertarian traits • Young • College-educated • White • Higher income • Nonreligious • Westerner Expanding the model beyond left or right

31. Populist ideology • Liberal on economic issues • Government should work to reduce economic inequality • Government should control business • Conservative on issues of personal conduct • Regulate “inappropriate” personal conduct • Lock up criminals • Permit prayer in schools • Populist traits • Older • Poorly educated • Lower income • Religious • Female • Southerner or Midwesterner Expanding the model beyond left or right

32. Casually referred to as Political Activists Usually more consistent than Joe Average The more involved in the political process, the more likely he or she is to have strong political views Political elites

33. Why are the elites so consistent? • Information • Access to more information reinforces outlook • Connections are often made between issues which the average person would miss • Peer Group • The more you agree with a person’s views, the more likely you will associate with them • The more you associate with someone, the more your opinions will converge Political elites

34. Elites and the public view politics in different ways • Elite Influence • Raise political issues • Frame political issues • Set the norms (standard of proper conduct) by which the issues should be resolved Political elites, Public Opinion & public Policy

35. Cannot define economic problems • Cannot define social problems • The people live it, they know it • Elites may shape policy to address the problems though • So many different elites that they cancel each other out(Pluralist Theory) Limitations on elite control