OUR ENERGY FUTURE: UPDATED SC 203

1. OUR ENERGY FUTURE: UPDATEDSC 203 January 16, 2008 John Bush

2. OUR ENERGY FUTURE: A SLATE REPORT SC 210 December 12, 2006 The Slate Panel Carolyn Kimme Smith George Hume Dennis Silverman Max Lechtman Paul Engelder Vern Roohk Stephen Jeckovich Ron Williams Dorothea Blaine John Bush

3. ENERGY SLATEA History • Planned: Spring 2005 • Initiated: Fall 2005 • Global Warming --Peak Oil • Energy Policy --Nuclear Energy • Concluded : Spring 2006 • Subsequent Events: • $ 78 per barrel oil/ $3.50 per gal gasoline • Increasing evidence for Global Warming • Intensifying Shiite/Sunni hostilities • California policy on Global Warming • Proposition 87

4. FRAMING THE SLATE DISCUSSIONS • Points of view • 1) Residents of California • 2) Citizens of the United States • 3) Inhabitants of the Earth • Time frames • 2010 • 2015 • 2025 • “Forever”—2050 and beyond

5. SUMMARY OF ISSUES • By using so much fossil fuel are we making the Earth an unfit place for life? • Is the world running out of oil? • Is our nation endangered by our dependence on imported oil? • How will global demographic and economic trends affect our energy future? • How will energy supply choices affect the availability of supplies of water and food? • How might our “American Lifestyle” be affected?

6. GLOBAL WARMING • Yes, the use of fossil fuels is profoundly changing the temperature of our living spaces. • What is likely to happen as a result? • Some change now appears to be inevitable: adjust lifestyle to accommodate to then • Some change now appears to be preventable: adjust lifestyle & use more benign energy technologies---the sooner the better!

7. GLOBAL WARMING EFFECTS IN CALIFORNIA • Summer temperatures rise by 4-8° F by 2100 for low emission scenario: 8-15° F for higher emissions. • Heat waves will be more common, more intense, and last longer. • Spring snowpacks in the Sierra could decline by 70-90%, as winters will be warmer. • Agriculture, including wine and dairy, could be affected by water shortages and higher temperatures. • More forest fires. • Tree rings show that in eras of global warming, megadroughts of decades hit the southwest US.

8. GLOBAL WARMING UPDATE • Is Global Warming (climate change) actually happening?---Yes • Is it caused by increasing output from the sun?---No • Is it caused by increased cosmic ray activity?—Maybe a contributor • Is it caused by increasing carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere?—Yes, largely

9. Science Jan 11, 2008

10. GLOBAL WARMING UPDATE • Is Global Warming (climate change) actually happening?---Yes • Is it caused by increasing output from the sun?---No • Is it caused by increased cosmic ray activity?—Maybe a contributor • Is it caused by increasing carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere?—Yes, largely

11. CAUSES OF GLOBAL WARMING • Why is the carbon dioxide concentration increasing? • Human activities-- Yes • Volcanoes– No • Other natural sources– Some • Decreased capacity to absorb carbon dioxide--- Yes • Are there other gases contributing to warming?—Yes • Methane • Nitrous oxide • Water vapor

12. AMERICAN ATTITUDES TO GLOBAL WARMING • Is Global Warming actually happening?--Yes • 60% said take action very soon • Many well publicized objectors to “Global Warming hysteria” • Are Americans well informed?--Some • An Inconvenient Truth • Oil company funded campaigns • White House-directed distortions • Is there serious scientific dissent about the reality of Global Warming?--No

13. CONTRARY VIEWS • Global Warming isn’t happening, can’t be modified, or is hysterical hype • Natural effects overwhelm the effects of human activity– volcanoes, water vapor, cosmic rays, natural cyclic climate change • The data base is questionable • If not Global Cooling then why Global Warming? • Scientists are hopelessly divided on reality and seriousness of Global Warming • “Scientific technological elites” are creating hysteria so that their work will be funded—a conspiracy • Global Warming consequences will be minimal or harmless • Dust and aerosols will counter warming • The effects are overstated because climate models are unreliable—”junk science” • Better to invest to address other human concerns

14. INFORMING THE PUBLIC?“CLIMATE CATASTROPHE”James Hansen NASA

15. PROJECTED CONSEQUENCES FOR LIFE FORMS OF GLOBAL WARMINGIPCC: 2007

16. AND THINGS GET WORSENATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC

17. GLOBAL WARMING • Yes, the use of fossil fuels is profoundly changing the temperature of our living spaces. • What is likely to happen as a result? • Some change now appears to be inevitable: adjust lifestyle to accommodate to then • Some change now appears to be preventable: adjust lifestyle & use more benign energy technologies---the sooner the better!

18. PEAK OIL • Is the world running out of oil?-- Yes • How near is the peak in global oil production?—Controversial • What happens after the peak?—Without replacement technologies, society as we know it will collapse. • What can we do to delay/avert social collapse? • Alter lifestyles to conserve oil • Develop replacement technologies • Do we have enough time?—Yes, probably

19. DO WE HAVE TIME TO ACT? • Oil production will peak between now and 2070 • From small scale demonstration to widespread commercialization of energy technologies may ordinarily take 20 to 50 years • Fossil energy conversion facilities have an average productive life of about 30 years • Conclude we will need to demonstrate the economic feasibility of technologies in the next 10 to 20 years to have them widely available by the time oil production peaks

20. PEAK OIL UPDATE • Are we near the peak?—Still controversial • Can production meet potential demand? • OECD/IEA December 2007: “The world’s remaining oil resources are expected to be sufficient to meet rising demand over the next two-and-a-half decades.” • NPC US July 2007: Global production is “unlikely to meet the projected 50-60% growth in demand over the next 25 years” • NPC: The real issue is the rate of production not the magnitude of resources • What happens if growth in the rate of production doesn’t keep up with growth in demand??

21. PRICE OF OIL • Not necessarily correlated with the price of gasoline • Historically, what should oil cost?: $45-60 per bbl in current dollars • Actually now is about $91 per bbl-- $40 per bbl “Speculative premium” due to a volatile, tight oil market • Evidence that economic rationing is beginning to take effect

22. AFTER THE PEAK • Volatile markets—potential for economic depressions • Escalating costs for everything; reduced net incomes • Economic rationing—change in lifestyles driven by economics • Government actions—rationing, subsidies, wars

23. HOW URGENT IS THIS? • NPC consensus among supply forecasters: “The urgent need for global action was clearly the most strident issue raised.” • The post peak consequences will become critical within 20 years • Do we have time to completely avert them?—probably not • Do we have time to cushion them?—yes if we act urgently

24. ALTERNATIVE VIEWPOINTS • Reserve growth through technology and discovery will prolong the time available past 2030 • “Resources, investments, facilities and production in the immediate future are sufficient to meet demand.”

25. UPDATE: DO WE HAVE TIME TO ACT? • Oil production will peak between now and 2070 • From small scale demonstration to widespread commercialization of energy technologies may ordinarily take 20 to 50 years • Fossil energy conversion facilities have an average productive life of about 30 years • Conclude we will need to demonstrate the economic feasibility of new technologies in the next 5 to 10 years to have them sufficiently available by the time production rates fall short of demand growth”

26. THE LAST WORD “The public, in general, is not very well educated on the issue of peak oil production and much less so with respect to its implications. The precise date of peak oil production is uncertain, but the implications of reaching peak production and the subsequent post-peak production decline are so important and the economic risks so great that they should be studied and addressed.” National Petroleum Council: Facing the Hard Truths About Energy Summary Discussions on Peak Oil July 2007

27. NATIONAL SECURITY • Is our military security endangered?—No • Is our economic security endangered?—Yes • Major increase in competition for energy resources • Energy supplies sensitive to regional instability • Are our foreign policy choices constrained?—Yes • Can we become independent of imports? • Theoretically yes but at an unacceptable cost • Practically not until we deploy economically acceptable alternatives to oil. • Energy independence is a myth at least in the next 10 to 20 years.

28. NATIONAL SECURITY UPDATE • It only gets worse • Economy: See food, water and lifestyle below • With oil and gas come political power • We are more dependent on imported oil and gas • Canada is our only reliable supplier • Latin America: Venezuela, Brazil, Ecuador • Middle East: Saudi, Gulf States, Iran • Eurasia: Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan • US has lost control of oil prices

29. CONDITIONS FOR SURVIVING $100 BBL OIL • Gradual price rise • Moderate or low inflation • Supplier nations investing in the US, EU, and Japan • All must happen to avoid a major depression

30. WAR GAME: “OIL SHOCKWAVE”NY TIMES NOV. 2, 2007 • 2009: starts with sudden increase to $150 bbl oil • Severing of pipelines to Azerbaijan • Military confrontation with Iran—production cut • Political confrontation with Venezuela—production cut • Begin to release from Strategic Oil Reserve • US Military deployed to Middle East • Financial markets crash • US President’s options • Reinstatement of draft • Gasoline rationing • Limit to Sunday driving • Has few options that aren’t political suicide

31. NATIONAL SECURITY • Is our military security endangered?—No • Is our economic security endangered?—Yes • Major increase in competition for energy resources • Energy supplies sensitive to regional instability • Are our foreign policy choices constrained?—Yes • Can we become independent of imports? • Theoretically yes but at an unacceptable cost • Practically not until we deploy economically acceptable alternatives to oil. • Energy independence is a myth at least in the next 10 to 20 years.

32. GLOBAL POPULATION/ECONOMIC GROWTH • Can an economic model based on US practice be applied globally?—No • Is the US model being adopted by relatively poor countries with large populations?--Yes • How are the economic aspiration of three quarters of the worlds people going to be met?—With only the technical alternatives now available they won’t be. • What if suitable alternatives are not deployed?-A grim future

33. DEMOGRAPHIC UPDATE • Increase in light duty vehicles 2005-2030 • China 22 million to >200 million • India 11 million to 115 million • Population growth 2005-2025: Ten largest • India 344 million • China 130 • Pakistan 67 • Nigeria 79 • Bangladesh 64 • US 57 • Indonesia 49 • Ethiopia 48 • Brazil 42 • Philippines 32 • Population growth rate: Liberia, Burundi, Afghanistan, Niger, Eritrea, Uganda, Congo-Kinshasa, West Bank & Gaza, Jordan, Benin, Mali

34. GLOBAL POPULATION/ECONOMIC GROWTH • Can an economic model based on US practice be applied globally?—No • Is the US model being adopted by relatively poor countries with large populations?--Yes • How are the economic aspiration of three quarters of the worlds people going to be met?—With only the technical alternatives now available they won’t be. • What if suitable alternatives are not deployed?-A grim future

35. WATER & FOOD SCARCITY • Can intensive agriculture as practiced in the US provide adequate food for the growing global population?—Not without some new form of energy technology • Can agriculture meet both the food and energy requirements of the growing world population?—Probably not • Will there be enough clean, fresh water for the growing world population?—Not without some new form of energy technology

36. WATER UPDATE • Clean water for human consumption-where does the energy come from for clean-up? • Filtration • Desalination • Distillation • Water suitable for agriculture • Competition between food crops and fuel crops will force decisions about who gets water and who doesn’t • Global Warming will redistribute rainfall, regionally affecting water availability

37. FOOD • World food prices are increasing • Demand is increasing • Changes in lifestyles • Production of biofuels: corn to ethanol; palm oil to diesel • Supply is decreasing • Climate change is reducing cereal output • Reserves have been declining • Conflict with biofuels production: • Mexico: price of tortilla staple doubled due to US ethanol production • India: will need 5% increase in agricultural water supply to meet 10% of transportation fuel demand by 2030 • California: what crops will we not produce so as to produce biofuels?

39. WATER & FOOD SCARCITY • Can intensive agriculture as practiced in the US provide adequate food for the growing global population?—Not without some new form of energy technology • Can agriculture meet both the food and energy requirements of the growing world population?—Probably not • Will there be enough clean, fresh water for the growing world population?—Not without some new form of energy technology

40. THE AMERICAN LIFESTYLE • Can a lifestyle based on intensive use of inexpensive fossil fuels be sustained?—No • What may have to change? • Primacy of individual transport • Dispersed housing, work, and services • Low cost distribution of goods • Adequate, reliable utilities • Environmental qualities • Energy usage habits

41. STILL IN OUR COMFORT ZONE

42. AMERICAN LIFESTYLE UPDATECOPING WITH CHANGE • A majority in 2007 did not favor requiring • High mileage cars • Energy efficient appliances • Energy efficient buildings • Costs are enforcing change • Gasoline –commuting cost have more than doubled; but gasoline consumption rose 1.5% • Oil heating – costs have about doubled • Electricity – thus far moderate increases • Anecdotal Examples • Shift to smaller cars/hybrids • Residential solar installations • Decline in frequency of eating out • Less disposable income

43. PERSUADING CHANGE • PETA & Humane Society: eat less meat! • Sierra Club—don’t castigate consumers; persuade them • Environmental Defense Fund: get Congress to act

44. A CANARY IN THE COAL MINE?SHUNGNAK ALASKA • Slow decline due to rising energy costs • People moving away • Old survival skills not revived • Shift in diet away from meat and fish Wall Street Journal Jan 14, 2008

45. CALIFORNIA DEVELOPMENT • Global warming impact in environmental impact statements • Home construction costs will steeply increase • Some areas will be off limits due to fire danger or lack of water availability

46. WHICH CABERNET TO DRINK?

47. THE AMERICAN LIFESTYLE • Can a lifestyle based on intensive use of inexpensive fossil fuels be sustained?—No • What may have to change? • Primacy of individual transport • Dispersed housing, work, and services • Low cost distribution of goods • Adequate, reliable utilities • Environmental qualities • Energy usage habits

48. TECHNOLOGIES • Fossil Fuels…………………………….John Bush • Biofuels……………..Max Lechtman/Vern Roohk • Nuclear Fission/Fusion……..........George Hume • Solar Thermal/Photovoltaic….Dennis Silverman • Hydroelectric/Geothermal……………John Bush • Wind/Waves/Tides………………..George Hume • Electric System………………………..John Bush • Hydrogen………………….Carolyn Kimme Smith • Transportation………………..Stephen Jeckovich • Conservation………………......Dennis Silverman

49. ENERGY SOURCES • Petroleum • Natural gas • Coal • Nuclear • Wind • Solar • Biofuels • Other

50. ENERGY/POWER TRANSMITTERS • Pipelines • Electricity Grid • Hydrogen