PPA 573 – Emergency Management and Homeland Security

1. PPA 573 – Emergency Management and Homeland Security Lecture 5a – Natural, Medical, and Technological Hazards; Risk Assessment

2. Hazards: An Introduction • Hazard: • A source of danger that may or may not lead to an emergency or disaster and is named after the emergency or disaster that could be so precipitated. • Risk: • Susceptibility to death, injury, damage, destruction, disruption, stoppage, and so forth.” • Disaster: • Event that demands substantial crisis response requiring the use of government powers and resources beyond the scope of one line agency or service.”

3. Hazards: An Introduction • Hazard identification is the foundation of all emergency management activities. • When hazards react with the human or built environment, the risks associated with that hazard can be assessed.

4. Hazards: An Introduction • Understanding the risk posed by identified hazards is the basis for preparedness planning and mitigation actions. • Risk, when realized, such as in the event of an earthquake, tornado, flood, and so on, becomes a disaster that prompts emergency response and recovery activities. • All emergency management activities are predicated on the identification and assessment of hazards and risks.

5. Natural Hazards - Climatic • Floods. • Slow or fast rising. Develop over a period of days. • Large-scale weather systems with prolonged rainfall or onshore winds. • Also caused by locally intense thunderstorms, snowmelt, ice jams, and dam breaks. • Flash floods have little or no warning. • Floods are the most common type of disaster, accounting for 51 percent (61% with storm surge) of all disaster requests to the federal government. • FEMA estimates that more than 9 million households and $390 billion in property are at risk of flooding.

6. Flooding Case Study – Great Midwestern Floods 1993 • 534 counties in nine states (17% of counties in U.S.). • Federal costs: $4.2 billion in direct federal assistance, $1.3 billion in federal flood insurance payments, and more than $621 million in federal loans to individuals, businesses, and communities. • Federal payments came from FEMA, USDA, SBA, HUD, DOC, USACE, HHS, DOE, DOL, EPA, and DOI.

7. Natural Hazards - Climatic • Hurricanes – all hurricanes start as tropical waves that grow in intensity and size to tropical depressions, which in turn grow to be tropical storms (39 to 73 mph). • Hurricanes have wind speeds in excess of 74 mph. Eye is 20 to 30 miles wide. May extend outward 400 miles. • Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. August to September are the peak months. • Most of the deaths and damages from hurricanes arise from storm surge.

8. Hurricanes • Storm and hurricane scales. • Beaufort Scale of wind intensity. • Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. • Notable hurricanes in U.S. history. • Hurricane Katrina video

9. Natural Disasters - Climatic • Tornadoes. • A tornado is a rapidly rotating vortex or funnel of air extending groundward from a cumulonimbus cloud. • Approximately 1,000 tornadoes are spawned by thunderstorms each year. Most remain aloft as funnel clouds. • Tornadoes can lift and move heavy objects, destroy or move whole buildings, and siphon large volumes of water. • Tornadoes follow the path of least resistance, making residents of valleys most vulnerable.

10. Tornadoes • Tornado Scales. • Enhanced Fujita Tornado Scale. • Case Study: Super Outbreak, April 3-4, 1974.

11. Natural Disasters - Climatic • Snow and ice storms. • Severe winter storms consist of extreme cold and heavy concentrations of snowfall or ice. A blizzard combines heavy snowfall, high winds, extreme cold, and ice storms. • NW – cyclonic weather systems from the North Pacific or Aleutian Island region. • Midwest and Upper Plains – Canadian and Arctic cold fronts. • NE – Lake effect snowstorms. • Eastern and NE – extra-tropical cyclonic weather systems. • Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale.

12. Natural Disasters – Other Climatic • Landslides or mudslides. • Droughts • Palmer Drought Severity Index. • NNDC Climate Data Online. • Wildfires. • Surface fire, ground fire, crown fire. • Wildland fires, interface or intermix fires, firestorms, prescribed fires. • Extreme heat.

13. Natural Disasters – Other Climatic • Coastal erosion. • Thunderstorms. • Snow avalanches. • Hailstorms.

14. Natural Disasters - Geological • Earthquakes. • An earthquake is a sudden, rapid shaking of the earth caused by the breaking and shifting of rock beneath the earth’s surface. • This shaking can cause buildings and bridges to collapse; disrupt gas, electric, and phone service; and sometimes trigger landslides, avalanches, flash floods, fires, and tsunamis. • Buildings with foundations resting on unconsolidated landfill, old waterways, or other unstable soil are most at risk.

15. Earthquakes • Earthquake scales. • Richter and Modified Mercalli Scales (next slide). • Moment Magnitude Scale. • Case Study: Alaskan Earthquake 1964.

17. Earthquake Case Study – Alaskan Quake 1964 • On March 27, 1964 at 5:36 p.m., south central Alaska suffered the second largest earthquake in recorded human history. The estimated moment magnitude (Mw) of 9.2 (Sokolowski 2002) was only exceeded by the Chilean earthquake of 1960 (Mw 9.5). The duration of the Alaskan quake was approximately four minutes. By contrast, the Northridge earthquake in 1994 (Mw 6.7) lasted only fifteen seconds and the San Francisco earthquake of 1906 (Mw 7.9) lasted between thirty and forty-five seconds.

18. Earthquake Case Study – Alaskan Quake 1964 • The area of serious damage extended 50,000 square miles; the area experiencing the quake covered 1,000,000 square miles. The affected area contained 60 percent of the state’s population and 55 percent of the economic activity. The number of deaths totaled 115; the estimated damages were $311 million. The greatest structural damage occurred in Anchorage, Alaska, seventy-five miles west of the epicenter of the quake. Most of the deaths were the result of seismic sea waves (tsunamis), one of which struck 2,500 miles away in Crescent City, California.

19. Earthquake Case Study – Alaskan Quake 1964 • The earthquake disrupted the normal operation of local and state government.4 As a result, the U.S. military played a critical role in the first response to the disaster. The military provided emergency communications, aided power companies in restoring service, served meals within two hours of the quake, provided security and direct relief to the Greater Anchorage area and virtually all of the other stricken areas in Alaska (FRDPCA 1964). Federal civilian response followed quickly. Alaska Governor William Egan formally requested that President Lyndon Johnson declare a major disaster under the Federal Disaster Act of 1950 (P.L. 81-875) on the morning of March 28, 1964. The President granted the request later that afternoon.

20. Earthquake Case Study – Alaskan Quake 1964 • Immediately after the declaration, the Office of Emergency Planning (OEP) assigned specific disaster response and recovery missions to the Army Corps of Engineers; the Navy Bureau of Yards and Docks; the Federal Aviation Agency; the Bureau of Public Roads; the Alaska State Highway Department; several cabinet departments (Interior, Health, Education, and Welfare [HEW], Labor, Agriculture, Commerce, and Treasury), and a number of independent agencies. On June 12 OEP requested and President Johnson allocated $17 million from the President’s Disaster Relief Fund, which was used primarily to reimburse federal agencies for the emergency work they performed.

21. Earthquake Case Study – Alaskan Quake 1964 • Concerned about the magnitude of the disaster relative to state resources and the absence of mechanisms to ensure recovery, President Johnson issued Executive Order 11150 establishing the Federal Reconstruction and Development Planning Commission (FRDPCA) on April 2, 1964. The Commission consisted of the Secretaries of Defense, Interior, Agriculture, Commerce, Labor, and HEW; the Director of the Office of Emergency Planning; the Administrators of the Federal Aviation Agency, the Housing and Home Finance Agency, and Small Business Administration; and the Chairman of the Federal Power Commission. U.S. Senator Clinton P. Anderson (Democrat-New Mexico) chaired the commission.

22. Earthquake Case Study – Alaskan Quake 1964 • The Commission focused largely on five tasks: damage analyses, soil studies, engineering practice, price monitoring, and reconstruction planning. The Commission supervised the disbursement of $155 to $222 million of federal aid to state and local governments, $87 to $110 million of federal aid to private individuals and groups, and $82 million for restoration of federal facilities and direct federal operations. In short, the federal government reimbursed virtually all of the private and public costs associated with the disaster.

23. Natural Disasters - Geological • Volcanic eruptions. • Mountain that opens downward to a reservoir of molten rock. • Volcanoes are built up from their own eruptive products. • Pressure from gases and molten rock cause eruptions. • Unlike other disasters, volcanoes give months of forewarning. • Volcanoes can produce tsunamis, flash floods, earthquakes, rock falls, and mudflows.

24. Volcanic Eruptions • Volcano Explosivity Index (VEI). • Additional link. • Mt. St. Helens video (still pictures).

25. Volcanic Eruptions – Mt. St. Helens, 1980

26. Case Study – Mt. St. Helens • On March 20, 1980, a moderate earthquake of 4.1 on Richter scale occurred under Mount St. Helens in southwestern Washington.8 Multiple microquakes of varying intensity occurred on March 21 and 22, and continued throughout the eruption period. The increasing activity prompted seismologists and geophysicists from the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Washington to measure seismic activity around the volcano. The first eruption occurred on March 27, spitting plumes of ash and steam 10,000 feet, and forming a 250-foot-wide crater within the preexisting summit crater. Between March 27 and April 21, the mountain intermittently spewed ash and steam. Visible activity temporarily ceased through the rest of April and early May, resuming on May 7. However, seismic activity persisted throughout the period. The movement of magma began to create a bulge on the north face of the mountain. In effect, Mount St. Helens was being forcibly shaken apart.

27. Case Study – Mt. St. Helens • On Sunday, May 18, 1980, at twenty seconds after 8:32 a.m., a magnitude 5.1 earthquake under the mountain literally popped the cork on the volcano. The bulge on the north flank of the mountain collapsed, creating a debris avalanche moving laterally down the mountain at speeds ranging between 110 and 155 mph. The sudden release of pressure unleashed an explosion of ash, steam, rock, and hot gases that quickly overtook the avalanche, reaching speeds of 670 mph. The explosion (estimated in intensity at the equivalent of ten megatons) created a blast zone extending nearly 20 miles. The vertical column of ash from the eruption reached heights of 50,000 feet and drifted east over Washington, Idaho, and Montana, burying some sections of Washington under a foot of ash. Hot pyroclastic flows also streamed down the north side of the mountain. Within hours, melted snow and glacier ice mingled with debris and pyroclastic material to generate major mudflows down the Toutle and Cowlitz rivers, ultimately clogging the Columbia River and dumping material into Swift Reservoir.

28. Case Study – Mt. St. Helens • Because of the unexpected lateral movement of the eruption, fifty-seven people, including several geologists, lost their lives. Most were in areas believed to be safe. The lateral blast also devastated about 230 squares miles of timber north of the volcano, vaporizing the trees within five miles, leveling them within nineteen miles, and scorching beyond that. The mudflows caused major flooding along the Toutle and Cowlitz Rivers. “The water-carrying capacity of the Cowlitz was reduced by 85 percent, and the depth of the Columbia River navigational channel was decreased from 39 feet to less than 13 feet, disrupting river traffic and choking off ocean shipping” (Carson 1990, 50; Tilling, Topinka, and Swanson 1990). The ash fall in eastern Washington, Idaho, and Montana destroyed crops, damaged equipment, and disrupted commerce. According to MacCready (1981), total damages amounted to nearly $1 billion. The federal government bore 54 percent and the private sector about 33 percent of these costs. Most of the costs were timber and clean-up costs (84%).

29. Natural Disasters - Geological • Tsunamis. • A tsunami is a series of waves generated by an undersea disturbance such as an earthquake. Tsunamis also can be caused by volcanic eruptions and landslides. • Like ripples in a pond, but on a vastly larger scale. • Areas at greatest risk are less than 50 feet above sea level and within one mile of the shoreline. • They arrive as a series of successive crests from 5 to 90 minutes apart with crests and troughs.

30. 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami • The Earthquake, Tsunami, Damage, and Casualties. • 2004 Tsunami video – Phuket, Thailand.

31. Natural Disasters – Other Geological • Landslides. • Expansive soils.

32. Medical Disasters Epidemics occur when an infectious disease spreads beyond a local population, lasting longer and reaching people in a wider geographical area. When that disease reaches worldwide proportions, it's considered a pandemic. Several factors determine whether an outbreak will explode into an epidemic or pandemic: the ease with which a microbe moves from person to person, and the behavior of individuals and societies.

33. Medical Disasters • On the global level, different populations interact through travel, trade, and war—all opportunities for microbes to reach new areas. Rapidly growing cities also allow microbes to infect large groups of people. Of course, in many situations, individual and communal behavior also contribute to the spread of disease.

34. Medical Disasters • WHAT MAKES A PANDEMIC? • Pandemics, such as the 14th-century plague known as the Black Death, have been occurring for centuries. The Black Death devastated populations throughout Asia and Europe. And the influenza epidemic of 1918-19 caused at least 20 million deaths worldwide. AIDS, of course, can be found in almost every country.

35. Medical Disasters • Several factors contribute to the global spread of an infectious disease. First, it depends on how easily the disease-causing microbe is transmitted from person to person. For example, the tuberculosis microbe moves through a population much more slowly than the influenza microbe. • Some microbes live inside an animals, such as mosquitoes or mice, during part of their life cycle. The habitat and life cycle of that animal can limit or extend the range of the microbe. • Human behavior and public health conditions are also important factors. Reusing needles for injecting vaccines or drugs increases risk of infection, as does using water from a polluted source.

36. Medical Disasters • WAR • Warfare has long been linked to disease. In fact, infectious diseases sometimes kill more soldiers than do battle wounds. Infected soldiers allow microbes to enter new ecosystems and infect civilians, sometimes with disastrous results. Soldiers may also pick up infections abroad and carry them back home.

37. Medical Disasters • During a war, civilian populations are equally at risk from the breakdown of infrastructure and public health systems, and the scarcity of medicine. People are often forced from their homes into crowded, unsanitary refugee camps. • If that isn't enough, warfare also destroys ecosystems. Animals carrying disease-causing microbes may thrive in such altered environments.

38. Medical Disasters • TRADE, TRAVEL, AND MIGRATION • Throughout history, travelers moving about the world for work, adventure, or resettlement have spread disease. Microbes that infest insects and rodents stowaways—on ancient merchant ships to modern jet planes—have also spread disease. And other disease-causing microbes can lodge in the huge quantity of foods, lumber, and other trade goods that are always moving across the globe.

39. Medical Disasters • CITIES • Cities bring many people into close contact, making it easier for disease-carrying microbes to circulate, especially among poor people crowded together in unsanitary conditions. And in rapidly growing cities, particularly those in developing countries, public health programs often lack the resources to reach the people who need the most help. Lack of access to vaccinations, medicines, and public health information all contribute to the spread of microbe-caused diseases.

40. Medical Disasters • WEATHER AND CLIMATE CHANGE • Human behavior, combined with changes in weather patterns, contribute to the spread of infectious diseases. Both can produce conditions that lead to increases in disease-causing microbes and the animals that carry then.

41. Medical Disasters - AIDS

42. Medical Disasters – 1918 Influenza Pandemic • The Influenza Pandemic of 1918.

43. Technological Disasters • Fires. • 1,602,000 in 2005. • 50 percent outside or other. • 32 percent structural fires. • 18 percent vehicle fires. • 82 percent of all fire fatalities occur in the home. • Hazardous material incidents. • Explosives, flammable and combustible substances, poisons, and radioactive materials. • Released because of transportation or plant accidents.

44. Technological Disasters • Nuclear accidents. • Potential danger from radiation exposure. • Terrorism. • Use of force or violence against persons or property in violation of the criminal laws of the U.S. for purposes of intimidation, coercion, or ransom. • Prior to 9/11, most attacks involved bombing. • Domestic versus international terrorism.

45. Technological disasters • Weapons of mass destruction (WMDs). • CBRN (chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear). • Chemical agents. • Pulmonary, blood, vesicants (blister), nerve, incapacitating, riot-control (irritant).\ • Biological agents. • Bacteria, viruses, toxins. • Radiation threat. • Dirty bomb, radiation dispersion device (RDD).

46. Risk Assessment • Risk definition • The probability and frequency of a hazard occurring. • The level of exposure of people and property to the hazard. • The effects or costs, both direct and indirect, of this exposure. • Approaches • Risk matrix (qualitative). • Composite exposure indicator (CEI) approach. • 14 indicators (infrastructure).

47. Risk Assessment • Identify and characterize the hazard. • Evaluate each hazard for severity and frequency. • Estimate the risk (human and built environment). • Determine the potential societal and economic (direct) effects and the indirect effects or costs. • Determine the acceptable level of risk. • Identify risk reduction opportunities.

48. Religion Age Gender Literacy Health Politics Security Human rights Government and governance Social equality and equity Traditional values Customs Culture Social Vulnerability

49. Economic vulnerability • Debt • Access to credit • Insurance coverage • Sources of income • Funds reserved for disaster • Social distribution of wealth • Business continuity planning