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Changing crime rates?

Changing crime rates?. Gabrielle Maxwell 27 February 2009 Institute of Policy Studies, Victoria University of Wellington. Outline. What evidence is available? How much crime is occurring? Are the police apprehending offenders? What sorts of crimes? Are young people offending more often?

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Changing crime rates?

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  1. Changing crime rates? Gabrielle Maxwell 27 February 2009 Institute of Policy Studies, Victoria University of Wellington

  2. Outline • What evidence is available? • How much crime is occurring? • Are the police apprehending offenders? • What sorts of crimes? • Are young people offending more often? • Imprisonment rate comparisons • Why so much concern about rising crime? • Conclusions

  3. The types of evidence • Reported crime? • Resolved crime? • Apprehensions? • Breakdowns by • Year • Type of crime • Age group

  4. How much crime? • Victim surveys: 2000 – 2005 • Victims of violence - little change • Household offences - “increase but not a large one” • Crime reported to the police • overall a decline

  5. Recorded Offences per 10,000 population 1400 1200 1000 800 Offences 600 400 200 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Year Crime rates recorded by police

  6. Why is crime declining • International trend • Not well understood • Possible reasons include • economic patterns, • better security, • changes in culture and life style

  7. Police effectiveness • Percentage being resolved, in standard times set for resolution statistics, has steadily increased. • All crime: • 36% in 1998 to nearly 50% in 2007 • Serious violence: • 71% to 80% • Murder: • 62% to 91%

  8. Murder Serious Violence Police apprehensions Police Resolution percentages for murder and serious violence 1998-2007 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 Rate 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Year

  9. What sorts of crimes? • Almost all types of crimes have been declining • Exceptions are ones relating to new technologies • Most important data probably involves violence – especially serious violence and murder • Data in graph show no. of cases in court and not no. of offenders.

  10. Types of offences

  11. Commentary on graph • Overall a decline - 2007 a new trend or a blip? • Murder - rise from 12 to 15 per million – possibly reflects improved resolution speeds and rates • Serious violence shows a rise: • Greater increase in threats of violence than in actual assaults but there are increases here too • More partner violence • Possibly declining tolerance of violent behaviour – particular within the family. • International comparisons suggest violence data probably similar to Australia and Canada rather than USA

  12. Police apprehension rates per 10,000 population by age groups for all offences 1995- 2007: 2500 2000 Rate per 10,000 1500 1000 500 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Year 14 to 16 Offending by young people

  13. Offending by young people • Why is it apparently declining when reports of rises come from various areas regularly? • Crime hot spots come and go – often when a specific cohort moves on or ages • Could be changes in patterns with changes in nature of communities • Increased poverty among the poorest • Despite media reports - South Auckland police report successful new crime management strategies

  14. Concerns about rising crime • Role of the media • BBC analyses UK crime going down but 2/3 people believe it is rising • In NZ TV news – c. 20% deals with crime in a news period where about 50% in all is about death and disaster • Trends in press and TV – tabloidisation, trivialisation, lack of expert commentators • Distorted perception of facts, increased fearfulness and undermined public confidence.

  15. Prison sentences - trends 1980-2007

  16. Imprisonment rates: international comparisons (Data from 1993-2003)

  17. Global Peace index rankings 2008 • Iceland 1 • Denmark 2 • Norway 3 • New Zealand 4 • Japan 5 • Canada 11 • Hong Kong 23 • Australia 27 • United Kingdom 49 • United States 97 • Iraq 140

  18. Conclusions • Overall, crime is dropping or stable • Police are resolving more crime more speedily • Violent crime is rising but in part because family violence is being reported more often • Young people are now less likely to come to attention than ten years ago • Changes reflect innovative policing, better responses to young people, better situational crime prevention • Prison numbers have risen disproportionately to offending and to other comparable countries

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