EGYPT

1. EGYPT A National Critical Intelligence Estimate Presented by, Section 31 For Approval by, Professor R. Nichols

2. Section 31 Jay Kippen, Team Leader Kristell Havens, Executive Officer Political Brendan Kinchla- Team Lead Kristina Anderson Military Dan Routier- Team Lead Ekow Ocran Enzi Jauregui Economic Darcy Pitkin- Team Lead Naveen Kumar Intelligence/Cyber Security Jeff Sperry- Team Lead Kyle Leisner

3. Agenda Egypt NCIE#2 • Executive summary • Political • Economic • Military • Intelligence • Foreign relations • Key judgments • Possible outcomes • ACH • Conclusion

4. Executive Summary Presented by, Kristell Havens and Jay Kippen

5. Egypt EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Agenda • Definitions • Identification of U.S. Interests • Executive Summary • Indicators • Predictions-Key Judgments and Possible outcomes • Intentions • Capabilities • State Snapshot

6. Useful Definitions U.S. Foreign Aid Distributions • Foreign Military Financing (FMF) • Tool for promoting U.S. interests abroad • Improvement of key foreign militaries to aid U.S. in achieving goals • Provides financial backing • Economic Support Funds (ESF) • Tool for promoting political and economic stability abroad • Used in areas of strategic importance for U.S. • Funds are disbursed using grants • Military and infrastructure use

7. Useful Definitions U.S. Foreign Aid Distributions • International Military Education and Training Fund (IMET) • Used to train foreign militaries on U.S. weapon systems and military management (over 2,000 courses available) • Assistance comes in the form of grant money • Nonproliferation, Antiterrorism, Demining and Related Programs (NADR) • Funding provided by U.S. to support resources to security objectives in foreign countries

8. Useful Definitions U.S. Foreign Aid Distributions • International Narcotics Control and Law Enforcement (INCLE) • Supports programs aimed at curbing transnational crime- including anti-terrorism programs • Fills in the gaps of jurisdiction between enforcement agencies

9. Useful Definitions U.S. Foreign Aid Distributions • (BRICS) Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa Group • The acronym was developed by Goldman Sachs- they suspect that these 5 economies will come to dominate by 2050 • They meet annually during an economic summit

10. Useful Definitions U.S. Foreign Aid Distributions • NAM-Non Aligned Movement • September 1961- First conference held in Belgrade • 25 countries were represented • Developed out of concern that arms race was developing out of control between Soviet Union and U.S. • The countries involved with this group are not formally aligned with either side • Hope to curb colonialism, arms race and maintain sovereignty for states

11. Identification of U.S. Interests Strategic U.S. Interests • Maintaining access to the Suez Canal for the global distribution of oil, and global commerce • Deterrence of Iranian military involvement in the region • Key asset for projection of U.S. military power in the Middle East (ME) region • Access to the Suez Canal • Access to Egyptian Air Bases and U.S. overflight rights • Egypt’s military acts as a regional stabilizing force in the Middle East

12. Identification of U.S. Interests Continued U.S. Geopolitical Interests • Ensure Egypt's economy remains stable • Continued U.S.-Egyptian military cooperation • Regional political stabilizing force in the Middle East region • Maintaining peace with Israel • Anti-terrorism assistance

13. Key Indicators Post Mubarak and Morsi Regime • Egyptian foreign affairs ministry’s authority was regulated to GIS the Egyptian foreign intelligence service • Egyptian economy is on the verge of collapse • Needs a cash infusion from the IMF of $5 billion • U.S. is still wary of the Morsi regime • April 2012 Egypt state-owned gas company terminated exports to Israel

14. Executive Summary • Egypt’s geo-political atmosphere is unique in relation to U.S. strategic and political interests • Government transitions over the past several years has created political instability • Major world nations and Middle Eastern regional nations are wary of unfolding political events in Egypt • Egypts socio-economic concerns continue to increase everyday

15. Executive Summary Continued • After Mubarak's ouster the military held open elections • President Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) came to power by a landslide victory • Instituted political and economic reforms designed to consolidate authority • Reforms resulted in riots demanding his removal • Military stepped in again, (2nd time in 2 years) and removed Morsi

16. Executive Summary Continued • The Muslim Brotherhood key supporters of Morsi staged demonstrations that turned violent • Military remained in control • New government formed • Riots ensued by Morsi supporters resulting in many deaths • World nations quietly condemned the military coup • The future of Egypt is in question • Egypt's economy is on the brink of collapse and needs assistance

17. Key Indicators Continued • U.S. lawmakers have expressed discontent over Morsi’s handling of the Egyptian economy • The IMF refuses to loan Egypt $5 billion • Since Morsi’s rise to power U.S. foreign investment has dropped by ⅓ • Morsi indicated he will honor current treaties • Except stated the Egyptian-Israeli agreement may need to be looked at again • Morsi reached out to U.S. adversaries for economic assistance and military partnership agreements

18. Key Indicators Post-Morsi Regime • After Morsi’s ouster Middle Eastern nations agreed to provide financial support for Egypt’s failing economy • IMF loan is proceeding • Police returned to the streets • Food and fuel shortage was resolved • Key Egyptian and foreign investments are being revived

19. Prediction One Key judgments and possible outcomes post-Morsi regime • The military stays in control refusing to return Egypt to a democratic state • The military continues to persecute the MB • MB launches an insurgency to regain power • The economy remains stable with the influx of foreign cash from ME nations • U.S. influences the IMF for the Egyptian loan • The U.S. continues military aid in order to keep regional stabilization

20. Prediction Two Key judgments and possible outcomes Morsi returns to power • The military under MB insurgency pressure turns control back over to the Morsi government • U.S. refuses to intervene on behalf of Egypt to ensure the IMF loan • U.S. keeps economic and military ties intact to ensure regional stability • U.S. keeps the military and economic aid to Egypt fearing economic collapse

21. Prediction Two Continued Key judgments and possible outcomes Morsi returns to power • Other ME nations fear a rise in the MB- withhold financial assistance • Feeling pressure from economic concerns and mounting debt Morsi turns to U.S. adversaries for economic assistance • Morsi continues pro-Islamic government policy limiting military involvement in governmental affairs in order to prevent further coups • Continues reform of military budget oversight

22. Prediction Three Key judgments and possible outcomes Morsi returns to power • Fearing political and economic chaos Morsi agrees to IMF terms for loan • Continues political reforms designed to make Egypt a democratic society • Continues economic reforms to make Egypt a free-market society • Institutes reforms for military budget oversight • Continues to consolidate political power • Maintains current relationship with the U.S.

23. Prediction Four Key judgments and possible outcomes New Regime • Military relinquishes control over to the new interim government • Slowly institutes specific political reforms designed to ensure democracy while maintaining their own autonomy

24. Prediction Four Key judgments and possible outcomes New Regime Continued • Consolidates authority over the new government by ensuring the military’s budget never receives oversight • Slowly institutes specific economic reforms designed to ensure a free market economy while protecting their Military Inc.

25. Prediction five Key judgments and possible outcomes Worst Case Scenario • Morsi returns to power • Al-Sisi and key SCAF officers are removed in favor of a more Islamist general of MB choosing • Military falls in line with Morsi government • Morsi regime turns towards US adversaries for assistance

26. Prediction five Key judgments and possible outcomes Worst Case Scenario Continued • U.S. adversaries provide economic relief and military cooperation • Egypt becomes openly hostile to the U.S. • Closure of global economic asset the Suez Canal

27. Prediction five Continued Key judgments and possible outcomes Worst Case Scenario Continued • Egypt resumes military action against Israel • Hamas resumes attacks on Israel backed by Egypt and the MB • U.S. and allies force the Suez Canal open through military action and create a military zone around the Suez • Open conflict between the U.S. and Egypt occurs

28. Critical Intentions Based on analysis of available data points it is believed: • Morsi with the assistance of the Muslim Brotherhood wanted to convert Egypt into an Islamic state • The Morsi/MB dynamic-duo will quietly remove the power of the military in governmental affairs and the economy through the legislative process • Privatizing certain key military industries away from “Military Inc.” • Institute reform onmilitary through legislative budgetary oversight and reform

29. Critical Intentions • Morsi and the MB were to continue economic relations with the U.S. and western allies in order to alleviate the current economic concerns • Once these economic concerns were alleviated and the Morsi/MB partnership further solidified their control over the country their attention would turn to solidifying ties with U.S. adversaries

30. Estimated Capabilities • Morsi and the MB did not have the essential capabilities in place to exploit their election victory • Most likely scenario- they did not believe they had a chance of winning • Morsi and the MB were caught off guard by their election and unable to position key players in various fields prior • Military • Interior Ministry • Foreign Affairs • Legislative • Judicial

31. Estimated Capabilities • Because of the Morsi/MB unexpected victory they relied on appealing to the masses by creating mass social reforms designed to appease the Egyptian people (winning their hearts and minds) • Egyptian people wanted social and political reforms that alleviated their plight • This was the promise given by, Morsi and the MB, they were fully capable of instituting this action thru direct use of key MB factions within the Egyptian population

32. Egypt State Snapshot

33. State Snapshot Geography, People and Society • Strategically located for controlling Suez Canal • "Slightly Larger than the State of New Mexico" • 2450 km of coastline • Natural resources • Oil and Gas • Iron ore • Phosphates • Limestone • Gypsum • Shares a border • Gaza Strip, Israel, Libya, Sudan • Mediterranean Sea and the Red Sea • Population • 85,294,388 (July 2013 est.) • Median age total: 24.8 years of age • Language-Arabic • Population • 85 million

34. State Snapshot Political and Economic • Religions • Muslim-90% Mostly Sunni • Coptic-95 • Christian-1% • Ethnic Groups • Egyptians-99.6 • Other-0.4% • Urbanization • 43.5% Population • Major Urban Areas • Cairo-12 Million • Alexandria-4.5 Million Economic • Agriculture Products • Cotton • Rice • Corn • Wheat

35. Illustration of Egypt's Strategic Importance to Global Trade Google Earth (Cartographer). (2013). Middle east map [Topographic map]. Retrieved from https://maps.google.com/maps?q=middle+east+map&ie=UTF-8&hq=&hnear=0x157ec465 8142ffb7:0xa5b8320215ea72c,Middle+East&gl=us&ei=bEDjUcbaG87j4AOmmYDADA&ved=0CCwQ8gEwAA

36. Political Presented by, Brendan Kinchla and Kristina Anderson

37. EGYPT POLITICAL Agenda • Summary • Key Indicators • Predictions • What If Scenario • Supporting History • Organization • Consequences

38. Summary • Egypt is undergoing a major socio-political shift resulting in extreme political polarization • The current Egyptian political environment is in turmoil • Egypt has faced two successive coups in the past two years • Economic challenges have heavily contributed to the current political instability

39. Summary Mubarak Ouster • The Egyptian people wanted Mubarak removed in favor of a regime that addressed socio-economic factors • “April 6th Youth Group” responsible for Mubarak's ouster • The first time social media is used in Egypt to highlight their cause • The U.S. secretly supported the rebel ‘April 6th Movement,’ contributing to Mubarak's ouster in order to promote Egyptian democracy

40. Summary Morsi Regime • November 2012, President Morsi issued a presidential decree which monopolized executive, legislative, and judiciary powers in his hands • Forced constitution that had limited political and public support • Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafis backed the document • Rejected by almost every other political force

41. Summary Morsi Regime • Morsi’s year in office • Freedoms of press and media constrained • Women’s rights severely restricted • Country’s religious minorities experienced severe assaults and threats • Encroachments on independence of the judiciary

42. Summary Post-Morsi Regime • Tamarod Movement • Largely responsible for Morsi’s ouster • Supported by military • Seeks peaceful end to Muslim Brotherhood reign, ousting of President Morsi • U.S. and the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) have also played a hand in Morsi’s ouster

43. Key Indicators Mubarak's Ouster U.S. Involvement • U.S. secretly supported the April 6th movement while publicly praising Mubarak as a key ally in the Middle East • U.S. placed pressure on Mubarak to establish military bases on Egyptian soil • U.S. attempted to assert control over Egypt's telecom systems

44. Key Indicators Morsi Regime Ouster • President Morsi issued a decree that monopolized executive, legislative and judiciary power in his hands • The Tamarod movement was responsible for Morsi’s ouster • Naguib Sawiris (prominent Egyptian businessman) gave $28 million to fund the anti-morsi movement • The U.S. and the SCAF could have played a key role in Morsi’s ouster

45. Key Indicators Post-Morsi Regime • Egypt is undergoing a major socio-political shift • Resulting in extreme political polarization • Egypt’s interim government is appointing some individuals who are friendly to U.S. and Israel • Funding given to a key political mobilization party had a direct effect on the ouster of Morsi • Al Qaeda is supporting the Muslim Brotherhood and has threatened jihad in protest

46. Key Indicators Post-Morsi Regime • Interim Vice President ElBaradei is known to make anti-American and anti-Israeli statements and favors a rapprochement with Syria and Iran • Interim government authorizes use of force in police dispersion of pro-Morsi protesters

47. Predictions • Internal socio-political polarization leads to increases in violence, and radicalization • This may throw Egypt into a civil war • The violence has the potential to spill over into neighboring areas and create a regional turmoil • Prolonged period of transition • Throwing the country into stagnation • Politically, economically, and socially • Transition period may also be beneficial- allowing time for true democratic transition

48. Predictions • Morsi attempts a return to power • With the support of the Muslim Brotherhood and Morsi’s supporters the ousted leader attempts a return to Egyptian politics • Leads to greater polarization in society • Leads to civil violence and possibly war

49. What ifs Political How would U.S. interests be affected if Egypt becomes radicalized and unfriendly to western influence? • Egypt is a stabilizing political force in the region • Loss of this key intermediary would curtail regional peace efforts and affect: • Israel • Palestine • Hamas • Hezbollah • Iranian political influence would increase • Open involvement through regional projection of Iranian influence would give Iran more leverage

50. What ifs Political • Egypt would align with Iran or other nations unfriendly to the West thus destabilizing the region • Abandonment of the 1979 Camp David Peace accords resulting in the possibility of open conflict with Israel • Inability of the U.S. for projection of regional U.S. military assets would be curtailed