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Tonight’s Agenda

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Tonight’s Agenda

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  1. THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION DISCUSSED DURING HAWKTRADE MEETINGS.  Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investment returns and principal value will fluctuate, so that investors' shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Investing in any financial instruments does not guarantee that an investor will make money, avoid losing capital, or indicate that the investment is risk-free. There are no absolute guarantees in investing. HAWKTRADE and its members do not bear any responsibility for losses or gains made by members trading on their personal accounts based on analysis from HAWKTRADE meetings.

  2. Tonight’s Agenda • Market Overview • BRICs • Earnings Front • QE2

  3. S&P 500 +2.7%One Week

  4. Nikkei 225 vs. S&P 500 Three Month

  5. Last Week’s Economic Data

  6. New Jobless Claims November 2008 through March 2011

  7. There are two types of global economies right now Domestic Economies: Slow and Steady Growth Emerging Economies: High and Volatile Growth

  8. Potential Risks Domestic Economies: more susceptible to deflation and recessions Emerging Economies: more susceptible to inflation and asset bubbles

  9. Brazil Russia India China

  10. Turkey & Indonesia are another two economies on the rise Two Others to Keep an Eye on

  11. Founder of the term “BRICs” Chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM) *Used to own Manchester United Soccer team Jim O’neill

  12. Goldman Sachs: “The last decade saw the BRICs make their mark on the global economic landscape. Over the past 10 years they have contributed over a third of world GDP growth and grown from one-sixth of the world economy to almost a quarter. Looking forward to the coming decade, we expect this trend to continue and become even more pronounced” http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/brics/brics-decade.html

  13. Goldman Sachs, “Is this the ‘BRICs Decade’?” May 20, 2010.

  14. Goldman Sachs, “Is this the ‘BRICs Decade’?” May 20, 2010.

  15. Commodity Producing Country (Worlds 8th largest economy) • Gerdau: (GGB) • Vale: (VALE) • Petrobras: (PBR) • BancoBradesco: (BBD) • BancoSandtander: (BSBR) Brazil

  16. Commodity Producing Country • (worlds 10th largest economy) • Gazprom: (OGZPY) • Mechel: (MTL) • Mobile TeleSystems: (MBT) • Vimple Communications: (VIP) Russia

  17. Consumer Country • (Worlds 11th largest economy) • Warren Buffet announced last week that he plans on increasing BRK’s exposure to India India

  18. Consumer Country • (Worlds 11th largest economy) • Tata Group: motors, steel, communications • ETFs: • iPath MSCI India: (INP) • WisdomTree India Earnings Fund: (EPI) • Power shares • (PIN) India

  19. Air time: Tues. Nov. 30 2010 | 2:10 AM ET Emerging to Growth Markets

  20. Consumer & Exporting Country • (worlds 2nd largest economy) • China has been manipulating their currency do make keep it cheaper so they will have better exports • China is an export dependent economy right now China

  21. Prediction • China will slowly transition from an export led economy to a more domestic/consumption economy • This will cause a the currency is get stronger, giving the consumer a higher purchasing power. • This transition may cause some political unrest China

  22. Macau • Las Vegas Sands: (LVS) • Wynn Resorts: (WYNN) PetroChina: (PTR) Aluminum Corp of China: (ACH) Baidu: (BIDU) China

  23. Airtime: Tues. Mar. 8 2011 | 9:27 AM ET Turkish and Chile Banks

  24. Strong Emerging Market Banks • (BSBR) Banco Santander • (ITUB) BancoItau • (CIB) Bancolombia • (HDB) HDFC Bank • (TKGBY) TurkiyeGaranti • (IBN) ICICI Bank

  25. Trading Strategy • Look at last year • Markets rallied late March/ April before and during earnings • Towards the end of earnings, expect more news about: • The end of QE2. • The Fed tightening, Raising rates. • Taking profits in late April/ early May before QE2 ends may be a smart play

  26. Airtime: Thurs. Oct. 21 2010 | 5:40 AM ET Bullish on the BRIC Nations

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