Horn of Africa Crisis – Overview

1. Horn of Africa Crisis – Overview Horn of Africa Crisis – Evidence Ignored? 9th November 2011 Austin Kennan

2. Horn of Africa Crisis – Overview Long term tragedy – people vulnerable to: 1. More frequent drought (now every 3 to 5 years). 2. Misguided policies affecting pastoralists and other marginalised groups. Somalia – conflict since 1991. 3. Since 2008, escalating food & other essentials prices globally. became “Perfect Storm” in 2011 Horn of Africa Crisis – Evidence Ignored? | 9th November 2011 | Austin Kennan

3. Early Warning System – trigger points FSNAU Post ‘Gu analysis August 2010 (Somalia) FEWSNET alerts in region since November 2010 FSNAU Post Deyr analysis January 2011 (Somalia) FEWSNET (10/10-03/11)

4. Initial Impact (Somalia) River Shabelle, Lower Shabelle Region, April 2011 Village in Lower Shabelle Region, Somalia Horn of Africa – Evidence Ignored? 9thNovember, 2011 Austin Kennan

5. June/July – Famine Declaration in Somalia June/July – the ‘Media Moment’ arrives. Dadaab Camp in Kenya and better access in Mogadishu Famine Declaration in Somalia Agencies arrive or scale up Funding now becomes available IDP Camp - Mogadishu July 2011

6. Picture – Late July 2011

7. Why was the evidence not acted upon? Early warning evidence was there – in April, ‘famine’ word was being used. Economics – much cheaper to prevent (Niger 2005 – prevention cost $7 per person; response cost $23 per person) But... Political imperative globally – short term, other priorities, ‘war on terror’ focus. Access issue Specific contexts in Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia Horn of Africa Crisis – Evidence Ignored? | 9th November 2011 | Austin Kennan