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Modelling capacity to meet the 2012 Homelessness Target

Modelling capacity to meet the 2012 Homelessness Target. Dr. Andrew Waugh 31.10.11. Homelessness etc. (Scotland) Act 2003. Using the Waugh Model to assess local authority ‘capacity’ Numbers in temporary accommodation Time spent in temporary accommodation

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Modelling capacity to meet the 2012 Homelessness Target

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  1. Modelling capacity to meet the 2012 Homelessness Target Dr. Andrew Waugh 31.10.11

  2. Homelessness etc. (Scotland) Act 2003

  3. Using the Waugh Model to assess local authority ‘capacity’ • Numbers in temporary accommodation • Time spent in temporary accommodation • Number and proportion of social lets required by homeless households

  4. Homelessness System Model Stock Model Methodology + Supply Demand one for each local authority

  5. other waiting list lets decants to LA LA Core LA Demo homeless lets decants to RSL terminations terminations RTBs Local Authority and Transfer Landlord Tenancy Dynamics

  6. new build LA Demo LA Core demolitions RTBs Local Authority and Transfer Landlord Stock Dynamics

  7. new build decants from LA others lets RSL RSL demolitions terminations RTBs RTBs RSL Stock Dynamics RSL Tenancy Dynamics

  8. Homelessness System Model applications • Inputs (things we try to control) • The number of applications + assessments • Number of lets to homeless households • Outputs (results) • Number of households in the system • Time spent in the system Temporary accommodation lets

  9. Homelessness System Model PN LA RSL PRS Other Non PN LA Other Temporary Accommodation = constant x (Assess +PN + NonPN)

  10. Homelessness System Model Constraints • LA Homeless Lets <= All LA Lets – LA decants • RSL Homeless Lets <= All RSL lets – decants • All Homeless Lets <=  x all homeless outcomes • PRS Homeless Lets < =  x all homeless outcomes

  11. Checking Forecasts against Actual Data

  12. Continue 2006/7 Position • Homelessness levels as at 2006/7 • All landlords maintain fixed % of lets • New Build distributed as in 2003/4 -2005/6

  13. Households in Temporary Accommodation

  14. Households in Temporary Accommodation Health Warning Great forecast but underlying assumptions wrong!

  15. Local Authority Lets (excl. transfer) 2006-7 to 2010-11

  16. Variability within the Local Authority Lettings Data (non-transfer lets)

  17. Next steps

  18. Update the work to include latest information (APSR, HL1, HL2) • Run simulations for 2012 and beyond • Help inform policy options

  19. Work expected to form a key part of advice to Ministers • Cross cutting themes • HB/Welfare Reform • LA’s ability to pay for temporary accommodation • Increase in homelessness?

  20. andrew.waugh@scotland.gsi.gov.uk

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