CDM and Transportation COP-9 December 2003

1. CDM and Transportation COP-9December 2003

2. Mauricio Hurtado Climate Change, Foreign Affairs Ministry, Chile • Jodi Browne Climate Change & Energy, IISD • Eduardo Sanhueza Principle - CC&D, alternative member EB • Franz Tattenbach FUNDECOR, Costa Rica, Vice-chair of EB and Meth Panel

3. Transport and Climate Change • The transport sector is responsible for ~ 25% of CO2 emissions worldwide, and this contribution is increasing • Key factors • Travel activity (vehicle kilometers traveled, ton-kilometers) • Mode split • Vehicle energy intensity (efficiency, loading) • Fuel carbon content (lifecycle)

4. Transport & Climate Change • The rate of increase of CO2 emissions from transport is much higher in developing countries than developed countries. Developing country growth = 3.2% per year Developed country growth = 1% per year (World Energy Outlook, 2001)

5. CO2 Emissions From Transport Sperling & Salon, 2002

6. Transport & CDM Of the 80 projects currently in the CDM pipeline only 5 are transportation…of those, none address travel demand • CDM represents a crucial opportunity to develop a sustainable transportation sector e.g. Chile - increased funding flows - enhanced capacity - expanded technology

7. In Chile, transportation represents 2nd largest source of GHG emissions in the energy sector - approximately 33%

8. Transport Emissions in Chile

9. Growth in Travel ‘Drives’ GHGs

10. Transport & CDM Project: Chile Project Partners: IISD, CCAP, CC&D, CGTS • Funded by Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) • Explore the potential to reduce GHGs and promote transportation CDM projects in Chile Project Goal • To be of technical assistance to Chileans to reduce GHG emissions and promote involvement in the CDM, specifically in the transportation sector Potential for replication • Help establish precedent for assessing transportation CDM projects

11. 1) Area 10: Technology switch of buses within downtown area of Santiago 2) Bike Infrastructure: Developing bike lanes, storage, facilities 3) Location Efficiency: Concentrating mixed-use developments around metro stations Possible CDM projects currently being examined…

12. Area 10: Technology switching • Santiago: new design for public transport • Segregated routes for articulated buses (Min EURO3) • Feeding areas for buses of lower capacity (progressive switch from EURO1,2,3) • Exploring potential for CDM to implement hybrid diesel-electric buses in the feeding areas • Demonstration: Area 10 (downtown core = 34 buses)

13. Area 10: Technology switching • Methodological questions… • Set baseline as current or marginal technology? • Monitoring: Fuel based (sales)?...OR Distance based (calculate fuel use from VKT & efficiency)? • What to do with crediting for a program…over a number of years – incentive declines… • Because of interest to keep baseline stable…perverse incentives?

14. Bicycle Infrastructure • Increase non-motorized trips in Santiago • Introduction of further bicycle infrastructure (lanes) • Measure the emissions reductions from increased travel by bikes on a specific route (modeling, observation, etc.) • Quantify those reductions and develop as a CDM project

15. Bicycle Infrastructure – ?’s Methodological questions… • Compare project to current or future projected mode split? • What to do if data is not available for short (bike appropriate) trips? • Monitoring: Surveys? (determine mode choice without bikes) Counting? (what sampling frequency is sufficient?) Modeling?

16. Location Efficiency - background Urban form can: • Reduce number of motorized trips • Increase share of non-motorized trips • Reduce travel distances, increase vehicle occupancy rates Through: DENSITY – i.e. lot size DIVERSITY– mix of land uses & proximity DESIGN – street layout, block design, parking

17. Location Efficiency - examples Policy initiatives aimed at impacting travel demand: • Location-Efficient Mortgage (LEM) • Policy Guidance on using land use measures to improve Air Quality (US EPA) • ‘Transit-Oriented Development’ (TOD) initiatives, such as Hong Kong’s metro station concession program; US programs (WMATA, BART, etc.) • Other financial incentives, i.e., aimed at developers

18. Location Efficiency: our project Densification or “location efficient” development around metro stations… • Identify specific real estate development opportunities • Quantify the travel behavior impacts of those developments • Estimate the net impacts on transportation greenhouse gas emissions of the prospective developments • Determine how to fit this within the CDM. • Supporting existent work looking at efficient dev’t (MINVU) or “neighborhood efficiency”

19. Location Efficiency - ?’s • Baseline and Additionality: • Where would the developments have otherwise located? • What would have been the travel characteristics and subsequent emissions of those alternative locations? • Over what time period can the emissions reductions be realistically credited? • To what degree are the reductions “additional” to business-as-usual? • How can co-benefits (i.e., local air pollution reduction, other social benefits (costs)) be calculated and effectively incorporated into the methodology?

20. Location Efficiency - ?’s Monitoring and verification: • How can the emissions reductions be adequately monitored and verified? • Could surveys be incorporated into the real estate projects to determine trip-making behavior (including all non-motorized trips)? • Could public transport ridership be monitored • Track VKT or mode split? • Surveys? Local traffic counts? Metro boardings? • Is it appropriate to use modeling results for current or projected data?

21. Location Efficiency – ?s • Subsidies - Urban renovation, historic preservation, low income housing • CDM could bringing additional funds to support subsidies • How/if subsidies could be modified to fit as a CDM project? • Mechanisms to promote transit-oriented development; transport-efficiency subsidies (or mortgages), a fund in which a CDM investor could invest, others • How to develop these?; Who would be the “players” (Metro, Ministry of Planning, Banks, Municipalities).

22. Transport & Carbon Price • At $5/tonne CO2… removing a car from the road would be worth about $15 to $20/year • not sufficient incentive on its own • added sweetener for otherwise locally beneficial projects

23. Discussion – key questions • How to compensate for impacts on own baseline? i.e. disincentives? • If transportation projects are not feasible under the current CDM guidelines, is there a need for revised guidelines? If so, what type? How could these be developed and introduced?

24. Upcoming Events UNFCCC Side Event: Wed, 10 Dec 1:00 p.m.- 3:00 p.m. “Getting there: tackling transport emissions” Multi-stakeholder, high-level event on technical and lifestyle fixes as options for reversing the transport emissions trend. Moderated by Simon Upton. ****************************************************************************** “CDM and Transportation: Challenges and Opportunities” Santiago, Chile, Sept 2004 Int’l workshop on Transport & CDM issues & presentation of the conclusions of the IISD/CCAP/CC&D work

25. Thank you! FOR MORE INFORMATION... Jodi Browne Climate Change & Energy, IISD Tel: +1 (613) 238-9821 jbrowne@iisd.ca Steve Winkelman Manager of Transportation, CCAP Tel: +1 (202) 408-9260 swinkelman@ccap.org Eduardo Sanhueza Director , CC&D Tel: +56 (2) 209-1770 Email: J.Sanhueza@mi-mail.cl