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How the Swiss consider inflation: perceptions and expectations Ifop for Robeco (Switzerland) Ldt

for. How the Swiss consider inflation: perceptions and expectations Ifop for Robeco (Switzerland) Ldt. July 2008. Context & method. 1. Context. The return of inflation: Tense inflationary situation in Switzerland Prices continued to rise at 2.9% in May and in June

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How the Swiss consider inflation: perceptions and expectations Ifop for Robeco (Switzerland) Ldt

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  1. for How the Swiss consider inflation:perceptions and expectationsIfop for Robeco (Switzerland) Ldt July 2008

  2. Context & method 1

  3. Context The return of inflation: Tense inflationary situation in Switzerland Prices continued to rise at 2.9% in May and in June (the highest rate for nearly 15 years) What knowledge, perception and expectations do the Swiss have with regard to inflation?

  4. Methodology notes

  5. Study results 2

  6. Measures to counter inflation are one of the main priorities for the Swiss Question : In your opinion, what priority action should the authorities take regarding the economy? • Below 25 years of age (59%)  Executive employee (29%) • Employee, worker (59%) • Fewer than 2,000 inhab (60%) • Living in the West Plateau (60%) • Below CHF 4000 (64%) • Below CHF 4000 (50%) • 35 to 44 years old (50%) • French-speaking Swiss (43%) • 65 or more years of age (42%) • Executive employee (54%) With regard to the economy, measures against unemployment, financing pensions and measures to deal with inflation are the main requests made by the Swiss to the authorities.

  7. A rate of inflation perceived as relatively close to the official statistics Question : In your opinion, what has been the inflation rate in Switzerland in the last twelve months? Official data* 2.9 % The sudden return of inflation in Switzerland since the start of the year after over 15 years of stability, arising in part from rising oil and food prices, did not escape the Swiss’ notice. 39% of them also referred to a relatively accurate view of the current inflation rate and estimated it as between 2% and 3%. It should, however, be noted that 32% were unable to estimate the inflation rate. (*) Price variations May 2007-May 2008 according to the Federal Statistics Office

  8. The universally shared feeling that prices are rising and already a certainty that they will continue to do so in the year to come Question: In your opinion, in the last year have prices in Switzerland risen, fallen or stayed the same? Question : In your opinion, will the rise in inflation continue in the next twelve months? Base : persons stating that prices had risen in the last twelve months, i.e. 92% of the sample • Over CHF 9500 (57%) • Under 2000 inhab (59%) The feeling that prices are rising is shared by almost all respondents. The feeling that prices will continue to rise in the months to come is broadly shared (89%).

  9. In sum, the feeling that the phenomenon is a long-term one is shared by nearly two thirds of the Swiss Question: In your opinion, for the last year prices in Switzerland have risen, fallen or stayed the same? Question : And would you say the price hike, inflation, will be… • Under 35 (65%) • Employees, workers (66%) • Living in French-speaking Switzerland (74%) • 65 and older (45%) • East plateau (44%) The majority of the Swiss see inflation as a structural phenomenon on a long-term basis in the Swiss economy. Base : persons stating that prices had risen in the last twelve months, i.e. 92% of the sample

  10. Expectations of a slower pace in price rises in the next twelve months Question: How much will it increase by in the next twelve months? Can you give me a percentage between 0.1% and 100%? Expectations of price increases are, however, relatively low and below 2.5% for 34% of respondents.

  11. The feeling that prices have risen concentrates on oil, food, real estate and leisure “Prices have…” • French-speaking Switzerland (93%) • French-speaking Switzerland (79%) • Under 35 (73%) • French-speaking Switzerland (75%) • 35-44 (72%) • French-speaking Switzerland (30%) • French-speaking Switzerland (29%) • French-speaking Switzerland (21%) Respondents almost unanimously made a distinction between petrol and food as being the most ‘inflationary’. These were then followed by real estate and leisure whose perceived increase in the last year is significant. The inhabitants of French-speaking Switzerland were the most sensitive to price rises irrespective of the product tested.

  12. Perception of inflation in food produce focuses on dairy products and cereals Question: Among the following foodstuffs, which has risen in price the most in the last twelve months? • East plateau (59%) • 35-44 (50%) • French-speaking Switzerland (49%) • Under CHF 4000 (53%) The perceived price rise focuses primarily on basic foodstuffs: dairy produce and cereals. The first position of dairy produce in public opinion can probably be explained by the very recent media coverage of strikes by dairy works in June 2008 and the ensuing increase in milk prices to support them over and beyond the actual increase in the price of some products such as butter in particular. Base : persons stating that the price of foodstuffs had risen in the last twelve months, i.e., 84% of the sample

  13. An anxiety-provoking rise in inflation impacts the purchasing power of the Swiss and their subsequent behaviour… Question : And would you say about the rise in inflation and in prices that it… 77% 71% 67% 60% 28% The impact of inflation on purchasing power is clear for 77% of respondents and consequently fed concerns leading them to wait for the authorities to address the issue. At the same time, the observation of the idea that inflation could have a positive effect accounted for a tiny number of respondents. Base : persons stating that prices had risen in the last twelve months, i.e. 92% of the sample

  14. An increase in prices has a direct impact on saving and consumer behaviour in Switzerland Question : And would you say that the increase in inflation and prices… Question: You said the price increases would change your behaviour. Do you intend to… Save Spend The increase in inflation tends to modify the majority of behaviours in Switzerland: 64% of them stated they intended to spend less and at the same time save more (41%). Base : persons stating that prices had risen in the last twelve months, i.e., 92% of the sample Base : persons stating that the price increase would change their behaviour, i.e. 60% of the sample

  15. Minor concerns about the impact of inflation on personal investments Question: With regard to the impact of inflation on your investments, would you say that you are concerned or unconcerned? • from 6501 to 7800 CHF (55%) • 55-64 years of age (62%) 45% 49% In this context, the attitude of holders of financial products are currently varied and divided between optimism and anxiety. Although 45% stated concerns about the impact of inflation on their investments, 49% were relatively confident. Base : persons holding financial products, i.e. 88% of the sample

  16. A far from insignificant proportion of Swiss citizens would be ready to direct savings to other types of investment… Question: And in the event that inflation rates exceeded the yield of savings products or life insurance, would you consider directing your savings toward other types of investment? • Under 25 years of age (50%) • East Plateau (50%) • University, ETH, polytechnic(53%) • compulsory schooling (58%) • 65 and over (61%) The rise in inflation does not necessarily result in investment diversification. Nevertheless, 44% of respondents are considering redirecting their savings toward other types of more profitable investments. It should be noted that this trend increases with education and income levels. Base : persons with financial products, i.e. 88% of the sample

  17. … dominated by financial investments and real estate Question : What other types of investment? (open question – unprompted answers) • Under 4000 CHF (34%) • 65 or older (35%) • Over 9500 CHF (25%) • Compulsory schooling (19%) • From 4001 to 6000 CHF (20%) Stock market investments and other bonds and investment funds seem the most frequently considered alternative for Swiss citizens wishing to diversify their investments ahead of real estate acquisitions. Responses also highlight the central role occupied by banks in directing the decisions of their clients. Base : persons with financial products and considering redirecting their savings to other types of investment, i.e. 44% of the sample

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