Africa’s Turnaround

1. Tufts Research Day on Sustainability 3 May 2011 Africa’s Turnaround Towards Sustainable Growth in African Agriculture Will Masters Professor of Food Policy http://nutrition.tufts.edu http://sites.tufts.edu/willmasters

2. How much longer? Cartoon (c) 2002, reproduced with permission by Nicholson from "The Australian" newspaper: www.nicholsoncartoons.com.au

3. Extreme poverty is being eradicatedrapidly in East Asia, slowly in South Asia, and only recently in Africa Source: Author’s calculation from World Bank (2011), PovcalNet (http://iresearch.worldbank.org/PovcalNet/), updated 11 April 2011. Estimates are based on over 700 household surveys from more than 120 countries, and refer to per-capita expenditure at purchasing-power parity prices for 2005.

4. Ultra poverty is already rare in Asia, and remains widespread only in Africa Source: Author’s calculation from World Bank (2011), PovcalNet (http://iresearch.worldbank.org/PovcalNet/), updated 11 April 2011. Estimates are based on over 700 household surveys from more than 120 countries, and refer to per-capita expenditure at purchasing-power parity prices for 2005.

5. Africa now has 1/8th of the world’s people, over 1/4 of the extreme poor,and 2/3 of the ultra-poor Source: Author’s calculation from World Bank (2011), PovcalNet (http://iresearch.worldbank.org/PovcalNet/), updated 11 April 2011. Estimates are based on over 700 household surveys from more than 120 countries, and refer to per-capita expenditure at purchasing-power parity prices for 2005.

6. An underlying cause of Africa’s impoverishment in the 1970s-1990s was a sharp fall in land area per farmer Land available per farm household (hectares) Reprinted from Robert Eastwood, Michael Lipton and Andrew Newell (2010), “Farm Size”, chapter 65 in Prabhu Pingali and Robert Evenson, eds., Handbook of Agricultural Economics, Volume 4, Pages 3323-3397. Elsevier.

7. Falling land per farmer is due to Africa’s fast (but now slowing) rural population growth Africa has long had the world’s fastest growing rural and urban population! Growth rates by region, 1950-2030 Rural population Urban population Source: Calculated from FAOStat (downloaded 17 March 2009). Population estimates and projections are based on UN Population Projections (2006 revision) and UN Urbanization Prospects (2001 revision).

8. Africa’s green revolution has just begun USDA estimates of average cereal grain yields (mt/ha), 1960-2010 Source: Calculated from USDA , PS&D data (www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline), downloaded 7 Nov 2010. Results shown are each region’s total production per harvested area in barley, corn, millet, mixed grains, oats, rice, rye, sorghum and wheat.

9. Appropriate new technologies have only recently been developed and disseminated Source: Reprinted from W.A. Masters, “Paying for Prosperity: How and Why to Invest in Agricultural Research and Development in Africa” (2005), Journal of International Affairs, 58(2): 35-64.

10. US aid for agriculture has begun to recover, after 20 years of decline to near zero Source: Author's calculations from OECD (2011), Official Bilateral Commitments by Sector, updated 6 April 2011 (http://stats.oecd.org/qwids).

11. In Africa, US agricultural assistancehad been much less than US food aid Source: Author's calculations from OECD (2011), Official Bilateral Commitments by Purpose, updated 12 Jan. 2011 (http://stats.oecd.org). Agriculture includes forestry and fishing.

12. Conclusions: Towards sustainable growthin African agriculture • African poverty worsened from 1980 through 2000, but is now improving • A major underlying cause is land available per farmer, driven down by rural population growth which is now slowing • Appropriate new farm technologies are finally arriving, so crop yields, output and input use are now rising • U.S. agricultural assistance had shrunk to near zero, but is now being restored • Aid for farm productivity was key to cutting Asian poverty, then seen as no longer needed in the 1980s and 1990s; • Africa is now poised for rapid uptake and sustained growth

14. Extra slides

15. Extreme poverty is being eradicated World Bank estimates of global poverty, 1981-2005 Source: Author’s calculation from World Bank (2011), PovcalNet (http://iresearch.worldbank.org/PovcalNet/), updated 11 April 2011. Estimates are based on over 700 household surveys from more than 120 countries, and refer to per-capita expenditure at purchasing-power parity prices for 2005.

16. Urbanization eventually employs all new workers so land per farmer can rise …in Africa that won’t happen until the 2050s Population by principal residence, 1950-2050 World (total) Sub-Saharan Africa 2010 2010 Source: Calculated from UN World Urbanization Prospects, 2009 Revision , released April 2010 at http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup. Downloaded 7 Nov. 2010.

17. African agriculture is really distinctive Source: Reprinted from W.A. Masters, “Paying for Prosperity: How and Why to Invest in Agricultural Research and Development in Africa” (2005), Journal of International Affairs, 58(2): 35-64.

18. Foreign aid for agriculture has just begun to recover after being sharply cut in 1985-99 Source: Author's calculations from OECD (2011), Official Bilateral Commitments by Sector, updated 6 April 2011 (http://stats.oecd.org/qwids).

19. The most recent data show continued poverty reduction across Asia,but not in all countries Source: Author’s calculation from World Bank (2011), PovcalNet (http://iresearch.worldbank.org/PovcalNet/), updated 11 April 2011. Estimates are based on over 700 household surveys from more than 120 countries, and refer to per-capita expenditure at purchasing-power parity prices for 2005.

20. Poverty rates in Africa have also begun to fall, but not in all countries Source: Author’s calculation from World Bank (2011), PovcalNet (http://iresearch.worldbank.org/PovcalNet/), updated 11 April 2011. Estimates are based on over 700 household surveys from more than 120 countries, and refer to per-capita expenditure at purchasing-power parity prices for 2005.