The 10-Year Remote Sensing Industry Forecast and Analysis

1. The 10-Year Remote Sensing Industry Forecast and Analysis 6 September 2001 FGDC Meeting

2. Space Imaging • Kodak • SPOT • EarthData • PAR • LMSO • Autometrics • Spencer B. Gross • American Forests • RAND • Pictometry • Leading Edge • Geomatics • Eaglescan • Landcare Aviation • NASA • ASPRS • NSGIC • MAPPS • NOAA • USGS • Univ of Arizona • Univ of Utah • Univ of Missouri • Rochester Institute • of Technology Participants

3. The Plan Phase I Characterization and Baseline Forecast of the Industry (Dec 2000) Phase II Characterization of Customers/Users and Determination of Their Needs/Requirements (Jan 2002) Phase IIIValidate I and II (Dec 2003) Technology Assessment Phase IVMarket Forecast (Dec 2004) Project Plan

4. Remote Sensing Industry Platforms & Sensors Data Collection Phase I Data Processing Support Elements Industry Intermediaries • Hardware • Software • Etc. • VARs • Consultants • Etc. Business Segments End-User Phase II

5. Primary Business Segments Commercial respondents operate in multiple business segments (227 respondents; 298 responses) * Industry Intermediaries include VARs. Companies operate most in the Data Collection & Data Processing Segments

6. Respondent Estimates of CRSI Sales(1998-2001, 2005, and 2010)

7. Estimated CRSI Sales 1998 to 2010 Forecast Baseline Based on calculating the average annual growth rate from 1998-2000 (respondent estimates) and applying that rate to the out-years

8. Market Segment Activity Summarized across all three Geospatial activities, the CRSI market segments that generate most of the Sales are: • Mapping • Environment • Civil Government • National/Global Security • Transportation • Is this due to marketing practices? Demand? Customer Awareness? • Is there opportunity in the “Lowest % of Sales” market segments?

9. Market Segment as % of Sales CY 2000 National/Global Security 41% Mapping 17% Civil Government 15% Transportation 9% 4% Environmental Utilities 4% Agriculture 2% Exploration/Resources 2% Forestry 2% Telecommunications 2% Entertainment/Media <1% <1% Insurance Real Estate <1% Other <1% % of Sales Slide 23

10. Company Size While we don’t know how many Respondents were from the same Company, we do know that ... • This is a fragmented Industry • Smaller Companies are in the Majority • About 20% of Respondents estimated at 10 or less employees • About 55% of Respondents estimated at under 100 employees • (% < 50 ?) • Over 80% of Respondents estimated at under 500 employees

11. External Factors* Most Likely to Affect Government Mission Activities 2000-2004 *Pick up to 3 Top Affective External Factors: Strongest factor at Federal, State and Local Levels is “Funding/Budget” followed by “Technology” and “Customer Needs” Federal and State also concerned with “Commercialization/Privatization”, “Politics”, “New Legislation” and “Impact of Climate/Hazards/Disasters”

12. Phase I Summary and Conclusions • The Remote Sensing Industry will Grow about 13% Per Year, Reaching about $6B ($CY2000) in Sales by 2010 • Companies in the CRSI are multi-dimensional • more than one Market Segment • more than one Business Segment • more than one Geo-Spatial Activity • Currently, Across All Sectors, the most Active Markets/Apps/Activities/ Market Segments are: • Mapping/Geography • Environment • Civil Government • National/Global Security • Transportation • The Least Active (i.e., Utilities, Real Estate, Insurance, Telecommunications, Agriculture, Forestry, Entertainment/media) may offer significant opportunities • Government data distribution policies contribute to a Perception that they may be adversely effecting commercial interests Slide 49

13. Phase I Summary and Conclusions • Photogrammetry is currently the largest area of geo-spatial activity. However, R&D Investments indicate that a Shift to Remote Sensing may be in process • Most RSI Companies are small and do not invest in R&D • College/University Outputs may Not be Meeting Hiring Requirements of Industry • At Colleges/Universities offering RS curricula, only About 1% of the Student population is enrolled in RS programs. Support for these programs, therefore, is small • Industry competes with Government for personnel resources • Government and/or private sector support are probably needed • Potential Customers may not be fully aware of products available

14. Analysis Analysis Analysis Analysis Phase II Collection and Analysis Objectives 1. Identify and Characterize the MANAGER and END-USER • Academic • Commercial • Government 2. Identify and Baseline the MANAGER and END-USER Job NEEDS 3. Baseline End-user Needs 4. Determine Needs-driven REQUIREMENTS as Derived from Needs Baseline (Goal 3) 5. Determine If Current APPLICATIONS Provide Cost Effective Solutions to NEEDS and REQUIREMENTS (Goal 4) 6.Assess Current, Emergent and Future Technology Capabilities to Meet NEEDS, REQUIREMENTS Data Collection (Survey, Interview, Focus Group, Lit. Search)

15. Upgrade 1. Insert Existing Technologies into existing Applications Modernize Phase II User Needs & Requirements Analysis 2. Enrich existing Applications with Emergent Technologies Calibration Validation Verification Deployment Innovate Research 3. Create New Technologies for New Applications Create 4. Develop New RS Systems Applications User Needs-Driven Applications Development Applications

16. Finally • Our Information is based on “grass roots” collection and independent analysis • This is good planning information, but only has value if used • MAPPS and ASPRS are enthusiastic recipients; NSGIC will see first results in September • Lots of “call-ins”