The 10-Year Remote Sensing Industry Forecast

1. The 10-Year Remote Sensing Industry Forecast Presented at ASPRS/MAPPS Conference October, 2001 Ron Rabin, Lockheed Martin, Stennis Space Center (Support to Earth Science Applications Division)

2. Topics • Review Phase I - Industry Baseline • Background • Results • Phase II - User Needs/Requirements • Status • Interview Results • Preliminary Survey Results

3. Background • In August 1999, ASPRS and NASA's Earth Science Applications Division (ESAD) (nee CRSP) Commercial Remote Sensing Program (CRSP) entered into a 5-year Space Act Agreement (SAA), combining resources and expertise to: • Baseline the Remote Sensing Industry (RSI) • Develop a 10-Year RSI market forecast • Provide improved information for decision makers • Develop attendant processes • Leave behind capability for ASPRS

4. Forecast Plan Phase I Characterization and Baseline Forecast of the Industry (Dec 2000) Phase II Characterization of Customers/Users and Determination of Their Needs/Requirements (Jan 2002) Phase IIIValidate I and II (Dec 2003) Technology Assessment Phase IVMarket Forecast (Dec 2004) Project Plan

5. Remote Sensing Industry Definition Platforms & Sensors Data Collection Phase I Data Processing Support Elements Industry Intermediaries • Hardware • Software • Etc. • VARs • Consultants • Etc. Business Segments End-User Phase II

6. Customer Segments BusinessSegments Commercial Support Elements Government Intermediaries Market Segments Data Processing Academia Data Collection Mapping Utilities Civil Gov’t Forestry Insurance Exploration/ Resources Telecomms Real Estate Agriculture National/ Global Security Entertainment/ Media Environmental Transportation Forecast Framework

7. Forecast Participants • Space Imaging • Kodak • SPOT • EarthData • PAR • Autometrics • Spencer-Gross • American Forests • RAND • Pictometry • Leading Edge • Lockheed Martin • Geomatics • Eaglescan • Landcare Avn. • University of Arizona • University of Utah • University of Missouri • RIT • NASA • NOAA • USGS • ASPRS • NSGIC • MAPPS

8. Interview Survey Forecast $ $ Time Findings 17% Literature Search Focus Group 20% Conclusions 21% 21% 21% Forecast Process ANALYSIS

9. Data Collection to Date • Phase I • Interviews: 36 (Commercial) • Surveys: 438 (Commercial - 227, Government - 149, Academia - 62) • “Closed Envelope”: 40+ (Commercial, Senior level) • Phase II • Interviews 134 (Managers, Users, SLT Government) • Focus Groups 5 (NSGIC, Local GIS, ASPRS/MAPPS, URISA, Western Foresters) • Surveys > 530+ and counting

10. Respondent Profile * Respondents could answer more than once. Respondents are predominantly middle/upper management level with a representative mix of technical and non-technical

11. Estimated CRSI Sales 1998 to 2010

12. Estimated CRSI Sales 1998 to 2010 Forecast Baseline Based on calculating the average annual growth rate from 1998-2000 (respondent estimates) and applying that rate to the out-years

13. Market Segment as % of Sales CY 2000 National/Global Security 41% Mapping 17% Civil Government 15% Transportation 9% 4% Environmental Utilities 4% Agriculture 2% Exploration/Resources 2% Forestry 2% Telecommunications 2% Entertainment/Media <1% <1% Insurance Real Estate <1% Other <1% % of Sales Slide 23

14. Commercial Company Size While we don’t know how many Respondents were from the same Company, we do know that ... • This is a fragmented Industry • Smaller Companies are in the Majority • About 20% of Respondents estimated at 10 or less employees • About 55% of Respondents estimated at under 100 employees • (% < 50 ?) • Over 80% of Respondents estimated at under 500 employees

15. Federal level generally has across the board interest • States appear to be focused more on Natural Resource Management and Utilities • Only the Federal Government sees Technology Development as an Important Mission Most Important Mission by Level of Government

16. Most Active RS Markets/Applications/Activities (Generically grouped)(NOT rank ordered)

17. Forecast Plan Phase I Characterization and Baseline Forecast of the Industry (Dec 2000) Phase II Characterization of Customers/Users and Determination of Their Needs/Requirements (Jan 2002) Phase III Validate I and II (Dec 2003) Technology Assessment Phase IV Market Forecast (Dec 2004)

18. Topics • Review Phase I - Industry Baseline • Background • Results • Phase II - User Needs/Requirements • Status • Interview Results • Preliminary Survey Results

19. Data COLLECTION (Survey, Interview, Focus Group, Lit. Search) 1. Identify and Characterize the MANAGER and END-USER • Academic • Commercial • Government 2. Identify and Baseline the MANAGER and END-USER Job NEEDS 3. Determine Needs-driven APPLICATIONS REQUIREMENTS as Derived from Needs Baseline 4. Determine If Current APPLICATIONS Provide Cost Effective Solutions to NEEDS and REQUIREMENTS 5.Assess Current, Emergent and Future Technology Capabilities to Meet NEEDS, REQUIREMENTS Analysis Analysis Analysis Phase II Collection and Analysis Objectives

20. Most Least Comparison of Market Segment vs. Applications/Areas of Focus Are the areas of least focus those of biggest opportunity? • In General, The Applications/Areas of Focus most frequently selected by Interviewees parallel the most Active Market Segments in our Phase I Survey • The major exceptions (Utilities, Agriculture and National /Security) are probably due to a shift in interest toward toward State and Local government interests and civil applications.

21. Use of Imagery Types and Format • Imagery collected from Aerial Platforms is used 65% of the time. • Mutispectral imagery collected from space is the most used type of imagery collected by space platforms and second only to panchromatic imagery collected by aerial platforms. • Digital Format is used 70% of the time; film is used 30%. (Preference? Trend? Cost? Ease of Use?)

22. Spatial Resolution Use • About 40% use > 1 meter resolution • Nearly 60%use 2 meters or less The Government sample (NACo and The Association of State Floodplain Mappers) considers higher Spatial Resolution (at least 1 meter) important.

23. Importance of RS Data/Information Characteristics • Users of data/information collected from both Aerial and Space Platforms agree that Spatial Resolution and Geolocation Accuracy are the most important characteristics • Cost is an important characteristic but not most important to this interview sample. … HOWEVER, survey sample indicates that cost is a major driver for Manager-Users who purchase the data/information

24. The County* GIS/RS “Environment” • NACo Interviewees were predominantly elected officials (who control budgets) generally unfamiliar with GIS, although most of the knew it was related to mapping • 1998 NACo GIS committee established to educate the NACo membership • Current users of GIS are strong advocates • Generally, county governments are just starting to build GIS databases • County capabilities vary from computerless to hi-tech • Usually combine aerial photography with existing GIS • At the county level, the GIS Coordinator where the GIS knowledge lies. • Resides in various departments, e.g., Planning, Information Technology, County Assessors, County Surveyors, etc. * Per 51 NAC0 Interviews

25. Conclusions • The CRSI market is growing at about 13% per year (Effects of 9/11/01???) • About $2B in 2001, growing to about $6B in 2010 (Constant CY 2000 $) • Aerial and Satellite markets do not seem to be in competition • The CRSI is fragmented and populated with lots of small companies • Does not necessarily mean low entry barriers. • Imagery collected from Aerial Platforms is used 2 times more frequently than imagery collected from Space Platforms • High Resolution, Geo-location Accuracy and Cost are market drivers • Digital is the preferred format

26. Conclusions • Companies operate in more than one business segment • Government agencies are the largest potential Customer group(about 67% of revenues thru 2006 per F/S) • Federal and SLT interests are not the same • Decisions re: the use of remote sensing products are made by elected officials • The problem lies in funding, education, training, and awareness, not in available technology. • Currently, Across All Sectors, the most Active Markets/Apps/Activities/ Market Segments are: • Mapping/Geography • Environment • Civil Government • National/Global Security • Transportation

27. Topics • Review Phase I - Industry Baseline • Background • Results • Phase II - User Needs/Requirements • Status • Interview Results • Preliminary Survey Results

28. Phase II Forecast Framework Requirements Areas Sectors • Community Growth & • Infrastructure • Business Demographics • Government • Private • Environmental Assessment Application Areas • Academia • Disaster Management • Resource Management Utilities Forestry Exploration/ Resources Insurance Real Estate Civil Gov’t Telecomms Entertainment/ Media Agriculture National/Global Security/Defense Transportation Environmental National/Global Security & Defense General Mapping* Business Demographics * Includes: Engineering, GIS, Land Surveying

29. Preliminary User Survey Data • 25 October 2001 • Lots of Analyses yet to do • Commercial v. Government v. Academia • User v. Manager • Use v. Need • etc., etc.

30. Job Description of Respondents DRAFT Number of Responses Sector Users (End Users & Manager/Users) are in the majority

31. Government Sub-Sector of Employment DRAFT Number of Responses SLT Sub-Sector About 60% of the Government respondents are at SLT level

32. Average Amount of time spent on Research DRAFT Average Weighted Percentage Sector • Government and Academic sectors spend most the time on R&D (Invest most?) • During Phase I we found that the commercial sector does not invest heavily in R&D. • Function of company size.

33. Educational Levels A well educated sample DRAFT Number of Responses Level of Education

34. Degrees by Discipline DRAFT Responses Disciplines • 60% have had course work related to remote sensing • Similar to Phase I Academic data re; Geography & GIS, Geology and Environment topping list

35. Employer-Sponsored Remote Sensing Training Responses DRAFT Frequency

36. Use of Remote Sensing Data / Information / Software • Which dominates? • Which is (are) most cross-cutting • Commercial, Government, Academic DRAFT Percentage of Total Responses • 539 Respondents • 1108 Responses • The majority of Respondents use at least two categories • Data and Information are used more than Software

37. Application Area Needs DRAFT Number of Responses Application Areas It appears that user needs are not being very well met across all market segments. (Opportunities in application upgrades?)

38. Elevation Accuracy DRAFT Number of Responses Level of Elevation Accuracy There is probably a need for some better elevation accuracy at the “finer” levels.

39. Elevation Accuracy: Government (Commercial and Academic to go.) There appears to be a decided need for increased elevation accuracy in the Government Sector (Fed v. SLT) DRAFT Number of Responses Level of Elevation Accuracy

40. Spatial Resolution DRAFT Number of Responses Level of Spatial Resolution Pending further analysis, it appears that there is a need for higher spatial resolution (3 feet or less).

41. Geo-location Accuracy DRAFT Number of Responses Level of Geo-location Accuracy Pending further analysis, it appears that there is a need for better geo-location accuracy (18” and less)

42. Preferences for Timeliness 1-3 Weeks =20%-25% > 1 Week = ~40% ~20% Number of Respondents DRAFT Timeframe • Timeliness seems to be needs driven. • Not all users need/prefer to have data sooner .

43. Use of Imagery DRAFT Expectation of Technology Breakthrough? Number of Responses Image Types • Largest increases in use: • Hyperspectral • LIDAR • Digital Color • Digital B/W • Color IR Film

44. Survey Conclusions • We have lots of work to do • What we have looked at is generally consistent with Interviews and Phase I results • When completed, Phase II will accomplish its Objectives.

45. Data COLLECTION (Survey, Interview, Focus Group, Lit. Search) 1. Identify and Characterize the MANAGER and END-USER • Academic • Commercial • Government 2. Identify and Baseline the MANAGER and END-USER Job NEEDS 3. Determine Needs-driven APPLICATIONS REQUIREMENTS as Derived from Needs Baseline 4. Determine If Current APPLICATIONS Provide Cost Effective Solutions to NEEDS and REQUIREMENTS 5.Assess Current, Emergent and Future Technology Capabilities to Meet NEEDS, REQUIREMENTS Analysis Analysis Analysis Phase II Collection and Analysis Objectives

46. Back-Up

47. Phase I Survey Sample Size * = Excluded Students & Retired

48. Use of Imagery Types and Format • Imagery collected from Aerial Platforms is used 65% of the time. This preference is also reflected in the NACo sample. • Mutispectral imagery collected from space is the most used type of imagery collected by space platforms and second only to panchromatic imagery collected by aerial platforms. • Digital Format is used 70% of the time; film is used 30%. (Preference? Trend? Cost? Ease of Use?)

49. Proportional Use of Remote Sensing Data / Information / Software is about the same in each sector. DRAFT Number of Responses Sector Proportional Use of Remote Sensing Data / Information / Software is about the same in each sector.