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November 6, 2006

Energy Demand Forecast and Policy Directions in Korea. November 6, 2006. Chung, Woo-Jin. Contents. Current Energy Scene of Korea Long-term Energy Demand Forecast Korea’s Energy Policy Directions. Current Energy Scene of Korea. Major Energy and Economic Indicators. (%). 20.0. 15.0.

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November 6, 2006

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  1. Energy Demand Forecast andPolicy Directions in Korea November 6, 2006 Chung, Woo-Jin

  2. Contents • Current Energy Scene of Korea • Long-term Energy Demand Forecast • Korea’s Energy Policy Directions

  3. Current Energy Scene of Korea Major Energy and Economic Indicators

  4. (%) 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 2001 2005 -5.0 GDP Primary Energy Consumption -10.0 Economic Growth and Energy Consumption • For 1987 - 1997 • AAGR of Energy Consumption & GDP : 10.3% & 7.7%, respectively • Energy Elasticity of Energy Consumption to GDP : 1.34 • For 1998 – 2005 • AAGR of Energy Consumption & GDP : 4.7% & 5.6%, respectively • Energy Elasticity of Energy Consumption to GDP : 0.84

  5. (mil. toe) 240 Hydro Renewables 0.6% & Others 200 LNG 1.7% Nuclear 13.3% 16.1% 160 Coal 120 24.0% Oil 80 44.4% 40 2005 0 228.6 mil. toe 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 2000 2005 Coal Oil LNG Hydro Nuclear Firewood & Others Primary Energy Consumption by Source • Trend in Consumption Shares (198119902005, %) • •Oil : 58.1 53.8  44.4• Coal : 33.3 26.2 24.0 • • LNG : 0 3.2 13.3 • Nuclear : 1.6 14.2 16.1

  6. 180 (mil. toe) 160 Public & 140 Others 2.2% 120 Transport 100 20.6% Industrial 80 Residential/ Commercial 55.2% 60 22.0% 40 20 - 2005 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 2005 170.9 mil. toe Industrial Residentail & Commercial Transport Public & Others Energy Consumption by Sector • Trend in Consumption Shares (198119902005, %) • •Industrial : 44.948.155.2 • Rsd. & Cmrcl : 40.729.322.0 • • Transport : 9.618.920.6 • Public & Other : 4.83.72.2

  7. Overseas Energy Dependency mtoe bil.US$ • Energy Import (2005) • •Import Dependency: 96.4% • ME Dependency of Crude Oil: 81.8% • • Energy Imports: $ 66.7 billion • Energy Import/Total Import: 25.5%

  8. II. Long-term Energy Demand Forecast Forecast of major economic indicators(1) • The Growth of Economy and Population •The annual average growth rate(AAGR) of economy from 2005 to 2030 : 3.9 % • • The Population will be decreased after 2020 <GDP and Population> Source : Korea Development Institute

  9. Forecast of main economic indicators(2) • Industry Structure •The AAGR of value added from ’05 to ‘30 in industry: 3.9 % • • The ratio of service industry will be higher : AAGR 4.2%(’05-’30) <The ratios of value added by economic activities,%> Source : Korea Institute for Industrial economics and trade

  10. Forecast of main economic indicators(3) • Structural Changes in Industry •The AAGR of fabricated industry from ’05 to ‘30 : 5.0 % • * Fabricated Industry : Information & communication, car-making, shipbuilding • • The shares of other sectors will be lowered <The ratios of value added by industrial sectors > Source : Korea Institute for Industrial economics and trade

  11. 400.2 MTOE 330.7 MTOE 34.3 260.1 MTOE (Unit: %) 36.1 228.6 MTOE 40.9 23.1 Oil 44.4 25.3 Coal 18.0 25.5 LNG 24.0 15.5 15.9 13.3 18.4 Nuclear 17.9 14.1 16.1 RE & Others 6.1 5.1 3.6 2.3 2005 2010 2020 2030 Forecast of Primary Energy Demand AAGR 2.5% 2.4% 1.9% 2.2%(’05-’30) • The Shares by Energy (20052030, %) • • Oil : 44.4 34.3 •Coal  : 24.0 23.1 • • Natural gas  : 13.3 18.0 • Nuclear  : 16.1 18.4

  12. Per capita energy and Energy efficiency • Per capita energy & energy/GDP •Energy Consumption per capita will be steadily increased • while energy efficiency will be improved

  13. 287.2 MTOE 238.9 MTOE 192.9 MTOE 55.1 172.1 MTOE (Unit: %) 54.7 54.6 Industry 55.2 Transport 19.9 20.8 Residential 20.8 20.6 12.0 12.6 Commercial & Public 13.6 14.2 13.0 12.0 10.9 10.0 2005 2010 2020 2030 Forecast of Final Energy Demand AAGR 2.3% 2.2% 1.9% 2.1%(’05-’30) • The Shares by Demand sectors (20052030, %) • •Industry: 55.2  55.1 • Transport: 20.6  19.9 • • Resident : 14.2  12.0 • Commercial& Public : 10.0 13.0

  14. The Shares by Final Energy • The shares by final energy • The shares of coal and petroleum will be lowered while those of • other energy will be higher

  15. Past Energy Policy Paradigm and Legacies III. Korea’s Energy Policy Directions • Supply-oriented energy policy • • Energy policy was mainly aimed at supplying energy in a stable manner and at low prices for industrial competitiveness and containing inflation • Intervention of the government • • Depended on central planning rather than market functioning • Positive Achievement • • Well-established Domestic Supply Network for Oil, Gas, Electricity, and District Heating • Several negative results • • Energy-Intensive Economic Structure • • Environmental Problem

  16. Changing Conditions Challenges Policy Directions Oil Market Energy-Efficient International High Oil Price Instability Society Oil Market Environmental Sustainable Environmental UNFCCC Regulation Energy System Concerns Resource Energy Security Overseas Energy Energy Supply Competition Threats Development Security Non-Gov'tal Conflicts between Open Policy Policy Decision Organizations Stakeholders Framework Process Changes Prompting Policy Paradigm Shift

  17. Energy Supply Security Overseas Energy Resources Development Sustainable Energy System New and Renewable Energy Less Energy Consuming Society Energy Efficiency Improvement Three Main Energy Policy Directions Harmonization of Economy, Environment and Energy

  18. Efficiency Overseas Development Renewables 30.0 Gas Oil 30.0 0.40 6.0 5.0 20.0 0.32 15.0 4.0 2.3 0.30 0.25 10.0 2.0 Rate(%) Energy Intensity(%) 4.7 3.7 Share(%) 0.0 0.0 0.20 2005 2013 2005 2013 2005 2011 2005 2011 Three Main Energy Policy Directions

  19. Thank you !

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