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REAL CLIMATE CHANGE

REAL CLIMATE CHANGE. What you should know about Global Warming Presented by Robert P. Smith, Ph.D., P.E . Global Warming Theory. Global Warming is occurring 2. Main GW driver is CO2 from fossil fuels 3. GW will cause extreme harm. Is Carbon Dioxide Bad?.

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REAL CLIMATE CHANGE

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  1. REAL CLIMATE CHANGE What you should know about Global Warming Presented by Robert P. Smith, Ph.D., P.E.

  2. Global Warming Theory Global Warming is occurring 2. Main GW driver is CO2 from fossil fuels 3. GW will cause extreme harm

  3. Is Carbon Dioxide Bad? • When scientists differ on an issue: • Start with empirical evidence that is not in dispute

  4. What is Empirical Evidence? • Science advances using empirical evidence • Empirical data based upon something that happened • Careful records from observed events • Data from repeatable experiments • Accepted theories that have withstood falsification tests • May be revised or discarded with new discoveries • Non-empirical information • Unproven theories, hypotheses, hunches, etc. • Short-term correlations and cherry-picked data • Computer models that do not forecast or even hindcast • Circumstantial evidence, i.e., no cause-effect • “Desktop Speculation”

  5. IPCC and East Anglia • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change • United Nations agency • “authoritative source” on global warming • Publishes Assessment Reports every 5 yrs • IPCC “data” repeatedly debunked and discredited • East Anglia Climate Research Unit • Principal source of climate data for IPCC • Source of “Climategate” scandal • Tightly linked to IPCC and other “Team” scientists in universities and U.S. government agencies: NASA, NOAA, Lawrence Livermore Lab, Penn State University, etc.

  6. “Climategate” Illegal and unethical CRU activities • 20+ yrs temperature data manipulated • Data altered to show artificial warming • Surface data reliability now in doubt • Original raw data destroyed • Illegally dodged FOI requests • “Team” members controlled peer review process

  7. 1999 Conditions 20 straight years of reported warming 20 straight years of CO2 increase CO2 is a greenhouse gas Vostok ice core data The Greenhouse gas “signature” Computer models supported MMGW theory Therefore CO2 increase has caused warming

  8. The Data Began to Change • CO2 continued, but warming stopped • Vostok ice cores re-analyzed • Re-analysis in 1999 and 2003 • CO2 lags temperature by 800 years • CO2 an effect of warming, not a cause • Warming oceans release CO2 and vice versa • No “greenhouse gas signature” • More scientific papers – contrary evidence • Non-agreement of computer models with empirical data

  9. Global Temperature Methods How is global temperature measured? • Ocean bathythermographic – since 2003 • Satellite MSU – since 1979 • Radiosonde (weather balloons) – since 1940’s • Surface thermometers – since mid-1800’s • Historical records – previous 2000 yrs • Proxy analysis – precedes instrumental period

  10. Proxy Data • Precedes instrumental period • Geological - chemical analysis of rocks and fossils • Isotopes: oxygen, hydrogen, carbon, etc. • Ocean sediments and corals • Marine and pollen fossil analysis • Ice cores, stalagmites, boreholes • A familiar example of proxy data is dating material by Carbon 14 analysis

  11. Temperature Profile Since 1981

  12. Temperature Trends and Patterns Syun-Ichi Akasofu. The Recovery from the Little Ice Age and Recent Halting of the Warming. September, 2008.

  13. Temperature Profile – Past 2000 yrs Craig Loehle, National Council for Air and Stream Improvement. 18 non-tree-ring proxies to 1935, 11 proxies after 1935 (dotted line). Past 30 years

  14. 12,000 Year Temperature Profile Past 2,000 yrs Does earth have a “normal” temperature?

  15. 420,000 year temperature and CO2

  16. 650 Million Year Profile “Cambrian Explosion” – First fossil evidence of a massive increase in new advanced life forms – plants, fish, insects, etc. CO2 is 18 times higher than today. Age of the Dinosaurs (72) Today’s Avg temp (14) Atmospheric CO2 diminishes as plant life increases. Biological absorption and geologic deposition causes CO2 to drop to levels of today. Major temperature shifts completely unrelated to CO2 levels. (54)

  17. Natural Climate Drivers(Climate Forcings) • Solar cycles - 11, 33-year and longer cycles • Earth’s planetary orientation • Milankovitch Cycles • 100,000, 42,000, and 23,000 year cycles • Ocean dynamics • 5, 30, and 1,500-year cycles • Orientation of continents • Earth in a glacial pattern for last 30 million years

  18. A Common Sense Question If high CO2 can produce a thermal runaway, why didn’t it happen when CO2 was many hundreds of times higher than today? If it is possible, why has it never happened? (Engineers tend to ask this question.)

  19. Global Warming Theory2. Main GW driver is CO2 from fossil fuels

  20. The Case For and Against CO2 CO2 is a greenhouse gas Greenhouse effect: Water vapor 85-90% Clouds 7-10% CO2 3-5% Methane, nitrous oxides, etc. < 1% CO2 effect strongest for first 40-100 ppm Logarithmic – additional CO2 has little effect Only acts as GHG in certain wavelengths CO2 is already doing about all it can do

  21. IPCC “Models” vs Measured CO2 Mauna Loa station on Hawaii Recording CO2 since ____

  22. Input + 342 Output – 107 Output – 235 Total -- 0 Global Energy Budget Troposphere “Earth’s Annual Global Energy Budget” Kiehl and Trenberth 1997

  23. Greenhouse Gas “Signature” • IPCC models predicted tropospheric warming • Warming would be greatest in tropic latitudes

  24. 10 years of Measurements – No Greenhouse Gas “Signature”

  25. CO2 in the Environment • CO2 is plant food – required for all life • More CO2 increases plant vitality and growth – more efficient water use • More CO2 has never been shown to harm mankind or nature • Cambrian Explosion occurred when CO2 was over 18 times today’s levels

  26. Solar Cycle 24 • Will be a weak solar cycle • Forecast to be a major cooling shift • Up to 0.7 C decline in temperature over 30 yr • Equivalent to a 100 km move north • Cooler temperatures = less precipitation • Source: “Solar Cycle 24.” David Archibald, 2009

  27. In Summary • Climate has always changed. • Current temperature is near minimum of earth’s historic range of 12-22 C. • Natural forces drive climate change: abundant empirical evidence. • No empirical evidence for CO2 as a significant climate driver. None. • Empirical evidence should always trump speculation.

  28. Recommendations • Energy Goals • Conserve energy, improve efficiency • Avoid “green” alternatives that aren’t viable • Fight for free market energy development • CO2 isn’t “pollution” it is plant food • Don’t waste money on non-problems • Leaves less money for real problems • Be skeptical • Be wary of “authoritative sources” • Rely on empirical evidence • Prepare for a cooler world

  29. QUESTIONS? For: • pdf copy of “Energy: Present & Future, 2nd edition • List of my references • This powerpoint presentation • Summaries of Lindzen and Douglass papers Email address: rpowlsmith3@sbcglobal.net For detailed explanation of Climategate including timeline, names, associations, and texts of emails, visit website of Senator James Inhofe (R-OK).

  30. BACK SLIDES • Back slides from here on

  31. Two Important Papers • “On the determination of climate feedbacks from ERBE data.” • Prof. emeritus Richard Lindzen and Prof. Yong-Sand Choi, Atmos. Program, MIT • 15 years of ERBE data. No reduction in outgoing long-wave radiation. • Therefore, no warming can be occurring from the greenhouse effect. • 11 IPCC models shown to greatly over-estimate any CO2 warming. • “A comparison of tropical temperature trends with model predictions.” • Prof. David Douglass (Univ. of Rochester) and others. • 10 observational datasets: (3 surface, 4 radiosonde, 3 satellite) • Compared to 22 UN IPCC models • No warming of the troposphere relative to the surface. • IPCC models greatly over-estimated any enhanced greenhouse warming.

  32. CO2 Growth Response Growth response to a 300 ppm increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide level 49% - C3 Cereals (wheat) 20% - C4 Cereals (maize) 24% - Fruits and Melons 44% - Legumes 48% - Roots and Tubers 37% - Vegetables

  33. Carbon Stores & Transfers (760 Bt) (2,300 Bt) (100 Bt) (7 Bt) (120 Bt) (800 Bt) (4,000 Bt) (38, 000 Bt) (80, 000,000 Bt)

  34. Natural Climate Drivers Solar Cycles Variations in solar activity 11-yr, 30-yr, and longer average cycles Total Solar Irradiance Proxy for electromagnetic activity Reduces cosmic ray flux Reduces cloud formation Increases solar radiation received Weak solar cycles cause opposite effect

  35. Natural Climate Drivers Earth’s Planetary and Celestial Orientation Milankovich Cycles – Long Term Orbital Eccentricity Earth’s elliptical orbit - 100,000 year cycle Obliquity - Tilt on its axis 22.1 to 24.5 degree tilt - 41,000 year cycle Precession Wobble on its spin axis - 23,000 year cycle Celestial - Solar system passes through Milky Way spiral arms every 135 million years

  36. Natural Climate Drivers Ocean Dynamics Ocean is enormous thermal sink Top layer (300m) most active Numerous area patterns Thermohaline Circulation – “Great Conveyor” Pacific Decadal Oscillation – 30 years El Nino-Southern Oscillation – 2-5 years North Atlantic Oscillation – year-to-year Ocean oscillations both long and short-term climate drivers

  37. Satellite Method Since 1979 11 temperature satellites Twice daily orbiting Measures microwave energy in troposphere Troposphere: atmosphere to ~30,000 ft Microwave energy proportional to temperature Worldwide coverage every day Land, oceans, mountains, deserts, jungles

  38. Satellite Data Reliability Orbit earth twice daily Measures entire troposphere – top 30,000 ft Monitors oceans, mountains, deserts, etc. No “heat island” temperature distortion Can be calibrated/verified by radiosonde Consistent, reliable data reporting Highest quality temperature data since 1979

  39. Surface Thermometers Since mid-1800’s Began as “Central England” record Gradually expanded Now ~5000 stations on land Some data taken at sea Subject to multiple sources of error Hadley CRU, NCDC (NOAA), and GISS (NASA) All utilize surface data in different ways IPCC uses data from Hadley CRU

  40. Surface Temperature Reliability • Predominantly land-based • Land only 30% of earth’s surface • Inaccessible locations a problem – deserts, mountains, jungles, polar, etc. • “Heat Island” effect distorts data • Human reporting inconsistent • 89% of NCDC stations faulty • Data cannot be calibrated/verified

  41. Faulty Surface Monitoring Stations • All 1,221 U.S. temperature stations inspected by volunteers • 89% were faulty

  42. Radiosonde Method Since 1958 “Weather balloon” method Balloon lifts radio-altimeter Temperature at different altitudes Can be used to verify satellite data

  43. Historical Records of events Examples Romans grew wine grapes in Britain? Vikings colonize southern Greenland During Medieval Warm Period ~1000 AD Farmed, raised cattle for 200 years Viking Greenland colony abandoned Winter fairs on frozen River Thames Ice breakup records in northern Europe

  44. THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT

  45. Greenhouse Effect of CO2

  46. Energy Findings LIQUID FUELS Era of cheap oil is over, however: U.S. has abundant coal Natural gas reserves are rising Liquid fuel sources Coal-to-liquids and gas-to-liquids Shale oil 100’s of years supply Cost competitive with today’s oil No current substitute for fossil fuels

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