NOAA Climate and Living Marine Resources Workshop May 14, 2008

1. National Climate Services: Responding to Growing Demands Dr. Chet Koblinsky Director, NOAA Climate Program Office National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Climate and Living Marine Resources WorkshopMay 14, 2008

2. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report had a Profound Impact “There is now higher confidence in projected patterns of warming and other regional-scale features, including changes in wind patterns, precipitation and some aspects of extremes and of ice.” WG1 SPM

3. The growing demand for climate information US Conference of Mayors Policy Statement, August, 2007 National Governors Policy Statement, 2007 Western Governors Association Congressional Testimony, 2007 Lehman Brothers Report on Climate and the Private Sector, 2006 University of Maryland Conference: Climate Information: Responding to User Needs, 2007 NCDC Workshop with Energy, Insurance and Transportation Sectors, 2007 National Intelligence Estimate: Climate and National Security GAO Report on Climate needs of Federal Resource Managers, 2007 Coastal States Organization Report Report 2007

4. Increased Public Awareness

5. The Legal Need for Climate Services • Federal agencies have a need for climate information in order to make scientifically and legally sound management and regulatory decisions. • A number of judicial decisions emphasize the need to consider climate change as an important factor in their decision-making under statutes such as NEPA and the Endangered Species Act (ESA). • A National Climate Service could support federal agencies in their missions by providing the accurate, integrated data needed to satisfy these increasingly important and complex needs for information.

6. S. 2355 - the Climate Change Adaptation Act • a national strategic plan for climate change adaptation • regional assessments of the vulnerability of coastal and ocean areas and resources to hazards associated with climate change, climate variability, and ocean acidification. • S. 2307 - the Global Change Research Improvement Act of 2007 • establishes a National Climate Service within NOAA.

7. Climate Services NOAA’s Vision for a National Climate Service: An informed society anticipating and responding to climate and its impacts. NOAA’s Climate Service Strategy A comprehensive system that: • Monitors, collects and integrates Information on the key indicators of climate and develops credible, usable, accessible and timely assessments and predictions of climate, • Assesses climate trends, conditions, projections and impacts • Works with user communities to develop and transfer information into planning and decision-making.

8. Understand the Past and Current State of the Climate • Climate System Observations • Ocean • Atmosphere • Arctic • Carbon • Data Management and Information • NOAA’s Comprehensive Large Array-data Stewardship System • State of the Climate Report • Climatological Statistics and • Summaries

9. Advance Predictive Understanding and Skill about the Future State of Climate • Understanding Climate Processes - • NOAA’s Research Laboratories, • Centers, and Cooperative • Institutes • Competitive Grants • Earth System Modeling, • Predictions, and Projections - • GFDL and NCEP coupled climate models • Earth system model development • Analysis and Attribution - • Reanalysis • Emerging focus on Integrated Earth System Analysis and attribution GFDL MODEL Capturing the global distribution of the short-lived Aerosols spreading out from the source regions

10. Assessing Evolving User Needs and Context • Assessing Climate, Impacts and • Adaptation - • Global, national, regional, sectoral assessments of • vulnerability, impacts and • adaptation • Climate Services Development • and Delivery - • National Integrated Drought • Information System (NIDIS) • Emerging foci on Coasts, Arctic, Living Marine Resources,… • Regional • International

11. A Strategy for National Climate Services • The proposed establishment, within NOAA, of a National Climate Service: • To be the nation's identified, accessible, centralized source of authoritative, regular, and timely climate information • This includes historical and real-time data, monitoring and assessments, research and modeling, predictions and projections, decision support tools and early warning systems, and the development and delivery of valued climate services • The proposed establishment of a national climate services partnership across federal agencies: • To become the mechanism through which the nation’s goals with regard to managing risks associated with climate variability and change are identified, and investments and activities relevant to the production and application of climate information are coordinated • The focus of the partnership is on ensuring that highly usable, actionable, issue-focused information is produced and evaluated • The intention is that the activities of the Service and the distributed set of resources throughout the nation (including universities, federal, state and local science and management agencies, and non-governmental organizations) work in close collaboration.

12. Developing NOAA’s Climate Service Strategy In response to the emerging demand for climate information and a need for a coordinated service, NOAA has established an internal working group with representatives from each line office to begin to: • Define climate services and a National Climate Service • Define NOAA’s role for the provision of climate services • Assess evolving user needs for climate information • Assess other private and public sector involvement in climate services • Begin to develop a draft Climate Services strategy for NOAA • Engage external community

13. An Issue-Focused Perspective on Developing Climate Services Coastal and marine resource management Water resource management, including drought Agriculture Climate Services NOAA’s fundamental and emerging capabilities in Research, Observations, Prediction Impacts/Adaptation Research, Assessment and Operational Services Emerging framework NIDIS Financial risk management/ insurance Energy Emerging framework General public Urban planning and management Educators

14. Protected Species Sanctuaries (NOS) Conservation and Habitat Preservation CZMA/coastal planning OAR/Sea Grant S&T (NMFS) Educators National Ass. (NERRS, SG) Universities General public Hazard Preparedness Marine Protected Areas Policy bodies (SGA) Coral Reef Conservation (NOS,NESDIS) CSO Coastal Services Center (NOS) State assessments Envir. Orgs (TNC) Fisheries Councils Private sector State Sea Grant Prgms State/local planners Fisheries Habitat (NMFS) Strategic Partnership Framework: Linking Climate with Coastal and Marine Resource Management Climate-sensitive management decisions Stakeholders & Partners NOAA Technical research, stewardship & resource management capabilities OCRM Estuarine Reserves (NOS) OCRM Coastal Programs Other NCCOS NOAA Climate Program

15. NOAA Climate Activities in Support of Marine and Coastal Resource Management and Planning • Initiate and Participate in Stakeholder Dialogues and Partnerships to Identify and Address Information and Capacity Needs • Exploratory Discussion on the Potential Implications of Climate Variability for Coastal and Marine Resource Management and Conservation, with The Nature Conservancy (2005) • Workshop on Climate Science and Services: Coastal Applications for Decision Making through Sea Grant Extension and Outreach (2007) 2)Stimulate and Support Applied Impacts and Adaptation Research, and Decision Support Resource Development • Creation of a new focused, interdisciplinary research effort to address impacts, adaptation and decision support in coastal sector (SARP, est. 2005); competitive grants awarded FY06, FY07, FY08 • Continued support of RISA teams • Climate and Ecosystems Project in the Bering Sea (NMFS)

16. What Does the Interface Between Climate and LMR Look Like? How Can We Identify the Needs and Solutions Together? ?