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The Generic market @ a cross road

The Generic market @ a cross road. September 2006. The Generic Landscape. Fundamental drivers of growth unchanged. Ageing Population. High healthcare costs. Estimated % of regional population over 60. Total Healthcare Spending, % of GDP. The Generic Landscape. Growing generic

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The Generic market @ a cross road

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  1. The Generic market @ a cross road September 2006

  2. The Generic Landscape Fundamental drivers of growth unchanged Ageing Population High healthcare costs Estimated % of regional population over 60 Total Healthcare Spending, % of GDP

  3. The Generic Landscape Growing generic opportunity Revenues Patent Expiries • Large mature markets • Increasing generic penetration • in newer markets $ Bn Patent expiry, 2006 - 10

  4. Increasing Generic Penetration

  5. Generic Market Opportunity Strong generic growth through 2008 78 . 5 80 60 ( US $ Bn ) 43 . 7 2004 40 32 . 5 2008 19 . 8 20 9 . 7 6 . 5 5 . 6 5 . 5 4 . 3 3 . 3 2 . 9 1 . 2 0 Worldwide USA Germany Japan UK France CAGR 2004 - 08 16% 13% 15% 11% 18% 28%

  6. Leading Generic Companies 8000 7000 Annual Sales (US$ Millions 06E) Consolidation to gather momentum 6000 5000 ? 4000 Pliva + ? BRL Watson 3000 + Andrx 2000 1000 0 Teva Sandoz Merck Ranbaxy Mylan Ratiopharm

  7. “Competition is good” – is it now? Really? 2000 2006

  8. Invasion!!! Over a 100 competitors in the US market

  9. A new reality – commodity type market SANDOZ: “We expect prices to fall by at least 10% in 2006”

  10. Emerging Market Generics Competitive Advantages • Low cost – R&D, production facilities. • Technologically advanced – Decades of serving home markets regardless of IP. • Global presence – M&A , organic expansion. • Vertically Integrated – API world leaders. • P4 – concentration on US exclusivity.

  11. Authorized Generics – How Bad Are They?

  12. Biosimilars – The Future?

  13. Biosimilars – Where & When?

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