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HiRAD: A Real-Time System to Estimate Weather Conditions at High Resolution

HiRAD: A Real-Time System to Estimate Weather Conditions at High Resolution. Presented to the WG/WIST … June 7, 2006. HiRAD Summary. HiRAD is a system to derive accurate, high-resolution surface weather observations Uses multiple inputs, including in situ and remote sensors

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HiRAD: A Real-Time System to Estimate Weather Conditions at High Resolution

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  1. HiRAD: A Real-Time System to Estimate Weather Conditions at High Resolution • Presented to the WG/WIST … • June 7, 2006

  2. HiRAD Summary • HiRAD is a system to derive accurate, high-resolution surface weather observations • Uses multiple inputs, including in situ and remote sensors • Sensible weather estimates are central to the system • Phase II and III operational at TWC • On Local on the 8’s and weather.com

  3. HiRAD System Surface Observations Satellite Data Climo Data RUC Corrections with recent obs 2.5 -km Downscaling Estimate 1 Estimate 2 Calibration & Combination Radar Radar Fingerprinting Lightning Final Wx Estimate Post Processing HIRAD

  4. Operational System • Operational today @ 10,000 sites • 2.5 km resolution gridded version is operational and flowing to MET systems • Observations updated every 20 min; processing in 5 min’s or less. • Gridded data soon available on many platforms • These samples are phase III gridded data

  5. 81 Tiles running on 33 AMD dual-core server farm:

  6. 2.5 km Grid intersections in metro DC

  7. National Scale Examples

  8. HiRAD Local Examples Front Range Chinook Lake Effect Snows

  9. DDEQC Schematically.. METAR (LDM/NOAAPort) Feed KLWD 221953Z AUTO 04005KT 4SM BR OVC001 M01/M02 A3029 RMK AO2 SLP272 T10061017 TSNO $= KMLU 221953Z 34006KT 10SM -RA BKN006 BKN010 OVC016 08/07 A3011 RMK AO2 CIG 003V007 SLP196 P0016 T00780067= KODX 221953Z AUTO 01004KT 10SM CLR 00/M06 A3032 RMK AO2 SLP294 T00001061= KSPS 221952Z VRB03KT 10SM FEW018 SCT060 BKN100 10/M01 A3021 RMK AO2 SLP230 T01001006 $= K9V9 221952Z AUTO VRB03KT M03/M10 A3035 RMK AO2 SLP301 T10331100 PWINO FZRANO TSNO $= KTOL 221952Z 04004KT 10SM CLR 03/M05 A3038 RMK AO2 SLP296 T00281050= DEC-05 DDEQC statistics for all METAR ICAO’s used within HiRAD Site Var StdErr Scaling KATL T 3.74F 2.5 KATL Td 2.90F 2.5 KATL U 4.12 mph 3.0 KBOS T … etc… DDEQC & other QC Filter Logic PASS? FAIL? Rejection/Inspection Log.. Core HiRAD Analysis

  10. Bad wind gust .. Bad wind speeds or gusts generally attributed to typos (?), and less to instrumentation. They are rare but often egregious. KEVV 251754Z 27009KT 10SM SCT027 03/M04 A3042 RMK AO2 SLP304 T00331039 10033 21017 50015KEVV 251654Z 32010KT 10SM CLR 02/M04 A3042 RMK AO2 SLP305 T00221044KEVV 251554Z 31010KT 10SM CLR 01/M05 A3041 RMK AO2 SLP301 T00111050 $KEVV 251454Z 32011G142KT 10SM CLR 00/M05 A3037 RMK AO2 SLP289 T00001050 51023KEVV 251354Z 29011KT 10SM CLR M01/M06 A3035 RMK AO2 SLP281 T10061056KEVV 251254Z 29008KT 9SM CLR M01/M06 A3033 RMK AO2 SLP275 T10111056 $

  11. A typical day in DDEQC .. • On January 25, 2006.. • Fairly typical day; i.e. representative of total sample. Total Observations: 75,781 Flagged/Withheld: 141 Hit Ratio 0.18% Unique ICAO 43 Variable Count % T 58 41.1% Td 79 56.0% U (sust. and gust) 4 1.8%

  12. WIST thoughts w.r.t. HiRAD .. • Variational assimilation is a powerful technique • Shelters or isolates raw OBS on the input side .. however, single bad observations can now effect areas instead of single points.. • Results can be provided as uniform outputs in time and space (grids).. • Downstream applications need only know their actual location on the earth’s surface and understand how to relate this location to the gridded data.

  13. WIST thoughts w.r.t. HiRAD (cont) • The sensible weather (present weather, visibility, precipitation type and rate) should receive the lion’s share of attention • Is it possible to have an equivalent of the NLDN or USPLN for other weather variables? That is, very high resolution and very reliable and accurate, but low cost and only a sparse network of actual instruments? • Latency. Start with 0.00 minutes and resist every second of time that is added to the total delay and the resulting time of dissemination.

  14. WIST thoughts w.r.t. HiRAD (cont) • We fear adding mesonet and other secondary obs sources to HiRAD because of bias, reliability, and q/c implications. • The knock on road sensors is reliability and quality control. • If these obstacles are overcome, it is an extremely valuable source of information. • Other gee-whiz sources must be demonstrated to be reliable, robust, and unbiased. Even 1% error rates are unacceptable and will eat you alive.

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