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COMING FULL CIRCLE INTROSPECTIVE THINKING FOR A RETROSPECTIVE SCIENCE

Henri D. Grissino-Mayer Department of Geography The University of Tennessee Knoxville, Tennessee 37996. COMING FULL CIRCLE INTROSPECTIVE THINKING FOR A RETROSPECTIVE SCIENCE. *.

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COMING FULL CIRCLE INTROSPECTIVE THINKING FOR A RETROSPECTIVE SCIENCE

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  1. Henri D. Grissino-MayerDepartment of Geography The University of Tennessee Knoxville, Tennessee 37996 COMING FULL CIRCLEINTROSPECTIVE THINKING FOR A RETROSPECTIVE SCIENCE * * With contributions from Tom Swetnam, Jim Speer, Peter Brown, Paolo Cherubini, Paul Sheppard,and many, many other dendrochronologists over the years.

  2. Publications “Publications are the currency of science. If our work is not published, then it may as well not be done at all. In addition to communicating our science broadly, publications enhance our ability to continue our work by building a foundation of knowledge and understanding, and by conferring credibility that is essential to obtain the necessary research funding in an increasingly competitive field.” – Thomas W. Swetnam, memo dated 18 August 1995, sent to his students, staff, and post-docs

  3. Quantitative analyses that describe patterns of publication within a given field (Palmquist 2008) • Used to evaluate the influence of single researchers, such asthe h-index, which quantifies both the actual scientific productivity and the apparent scientific impact for a researcher. • Lotka's Law of Scientific Productivity: (1) number of authors making n contributions is about 1/n2 of those making one contribution; and (2) the proportion of all researchers thatmake one contribution is about 60% (but this has changed). • Has been a mainstay in documentation science since the1920s (Broadus 1987) • Bibliometrics is also used to evaluate the influence of journals via citation analyses • Science Citation Index, Social Science Citation Index, and Impact Factor Rating • Bibliometrics

  4. Lotka's Law of Scientific Productivity:Based on the total number of publications in Dendrochronology (11,300), and assuming 1/3rd are one-time publications, we should have approximately 12 scientists with 72 or more publications:Dendrochronologist 1 : 201Dendrochronologist 2 : 158Dendrochronologist 3 : 127*Dendrochronologist 4 : 111Dendrochronologist 5 : 111* Dendrochronologist 6 : 106Dendrochronologist 7 : 101*Dendrochronologist 8 : 95Dendrochronologist 9 : 87Dendrochronologist 10: 85Dendrochronologist 11: 84Dendrochronologist 12: 75Dendrochronologist 13: 74 • Bibliometrics 7 European6 American

  5. Bibliometrics WHAT IS BEING STUDIED IN DENDROCHRONOLOGY,AND WHEN WAS IT BEING STUDIED?

  6. Bibliometrics • Spatiotemporal Trends in Dendrochronology: • Major Categories: Climate, Archaeology, Ecology, Geomorphology, Hydrology, Isotopes, and Physiology • Temporal Trends in Dendrochronological Publications • Spatial Trends in Dendrochronological Publications • Trends Assessed for the Last 20 Years (1987–2006) • Caveats: • Inclusion in the bibliographic database assumes that tree rings were treated in some substantial way. • Some publications are listed in more than one category (e.g. isotopes and climate), especially review articles. • Some publications may be missing (which emphasizes the importance of sending publications to me). • Geographical analyses are based on where the research is being conducted, not by whom. • However, most researchers conduct their studies in their native country (but note exceptions, e.g. LDEO).

  7. 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 • Bibliometrics EcologicalApplications OverallTrend

  8. 50 45 40 35 OverallTrend 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Insect Studies 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 50 OverallTrend 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 OverallTrend 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Fire Studies • Bibliometrics Forest Health

  9. 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 • Bibliometrics ClimaticApplications Temp ReconPrecip Recon OverallTrend

  10. 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 • Bibliometrics ArchaeologicalApplications IndicatesEnglish Heritage OverallTrend

  11. 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 • Bibliometrics Applications inGeomorphology OverallTrend

  12. 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 • Bibliometrics IsotopeStudies OverallTrend

  13. 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 • Bibliometrics Studies inHydrology OverallTrend

  14. 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 • Bibliometrics Studies inPhysiology OverallTrend

  15. 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Years withProceedings Volumes 0 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 • Bibliometrics All Publications in Dendrochronology IndicatesEnglish Heritage OverallTrend

  16. Bibliometrics WHERE IS DENDROCHRONOLOGY BEING CONDUCTED?

  17. Studies Conducted in U.S. The “Schweingruber-Eckstein Effect” Studies Conducted in U.S. The “Hollstein-Corona Effect” Studies Conducted in Europe Studies Conducted in Europe

  18. NW U.S. North-Central NE U.S. Midwest SW U.S. SE U.S. South-Central NW U.S.

  19. 509 292 110 131 1008 348 164

  20. Numbers begin increasing ca. 1979 • Bibliometrics Eastern U.S.Central U.S.Western U.S.

  21. 15 Top European countrieswhere Dendrochronologyis most conducted

  22. 911 403 Sweden Finland Norway 204 200 148 15 Top European countrieswhere Dendrochronologyis most conducted United Kingdom Ireland 637 77 140 Poland Netherlands Germany 62 503 Czech Republic 53 Austria 101 412 Slovenia Switzerland 59 325 France Italy 79 Spain

  23. France Switzerland United Kingdom Germany • Bibliometrics

  24. 26 49 254 27 157 116 48 85 16 21 Yukon Northwest Territories Québec Newfoundland/Labrador Manitoba Alberta British Columbia Saskatchewan Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island Ontario

  25. Other South and Central American Countries: Costa Rica: 12 Peru: 9Bolivia: 9 Venezuela: 6Fr. Guyana: 3 Panama: 3Uruguay: 2 Brazil 32 Mexico 97 75 124 Chile Argentina

  26. Studies Conducted in Canada OverallTrend Studies Conducted in South America OverallTrend

  27. Studies Conducted in Russia OverallTrend Studies Conducted in Australasia OverallTrend

  28. Bibliometrics WHERE IS DENDROCHRONOLOGY BEING PUBLISHED?

  29. Total citations in yr (t) to articles in yrs (t-1) and (t-2) Total journal articles published in yrs (t-1) and (t-2) • Bibliometrics • Impact Factor (IF): • Developed in 1960s by Institute for Scientific Information (ISI), now Thomson Scientific, and used in-house for Science Citation Index and Social Science Citation Index. • In 1975, Thomson Scientific began publishing Journal Citation Reports. • Simple ratio: IF(t) = ----------------------------------------------------------------- • Only relevant when considering the rank of the journal in a category of its peers (note: IF of 2.0 is considered good for natural/physical sciences). • Faults include self-citations, review articles, exclusion of books/book chapters, short 2-yr window, editorial manipulation, time lag of issue release, skewed by one or a few articles • Reality: despite its faults, IF is increasingly used to measure productivity of researchers, affecting both hiring and promotion. • IF will affect outlets chosen by researchers for publication, especially proceedings volumes and books.

  30. Bibliometrics Source: Journal Citation Reports

  31. Bibliometrics Source: Journal Citation Reports

  32. Bibliometrics 400 372 Where have we been publishing? 343 331 350 3051 publications in just 25 journals, representing 27% of all publications since 1920 300 247 250 193 1046 publications in just 3 journals, representing 9.2% of all publications since 1920 200 150 125 121 116 114 102 100 94 93 80 100 70 66 65 64 59 58 51 47 49 46 45 50 0

  33. 30.028 26.681 4.782 4.239 2.878 2.602 2.538 2.459 2.319 2.000 1.839 1.549 1.457 1.461 1.290 1.193 1.188 0.931 0.625 0.667 • Bibliometrics 10 9 ImpactFactor Where have we been publishing? Other High-Impact Journals Ecological Applications (26): 3.470Journal of Climate (30): 3.419Journal of Vegetation Science (32): 2.382Tree Physiology (34): 2.297Ecoscience (36): 1.174 8 7 3051 publications in just 25 journals, representing 27% of all publications! 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Nature Science Ecology Lesovedenie Radiocarbon The Holocene IAWA Journal Forest Science Climatic Change English Heritage Dendrochronologia Journal of Ecology Journal of Forestry Tree-Ring Research Quaternary Research Vernacular Architecture Journal of Biogeography Annals of Forest Science Canadian Journal of Botany Trees - Structure and Function Geophysical Research Letters Forest Ecology and Management Canadian Journal of Forest Research Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research Schweizerische Zeitschrift für Forstwesen

  34. Publications in Top 10 Journals % Publications in Top 10 Journals • Bibliometrics

  35. Bibliometrics Better Journals in Last 20 Years Maintaining at the 10% Level

  36. Doctoral Masters 14 % Graduate Degrees in the Tree-Ring Sciences 12 Studies Conducted in Africa 10 8 Lowest Productivity (%) since 1970 6 4 2 0 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 35 Studies Conducted in Rest of Asia Graduate Degrees in the Tree-Ring Sciences 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

  37. Signs of a healthy discipline: • Increasing importance of timely economic and societal issues that can be addressed with tree-ring data (e.g., water resources and fire history studies). • Increasing importance of issues that have global significance and can be addressed with tree-ring data (e.g., climate change). • Increasing exposure in the media: news channels, documentaries, Congressional hearings, popular books and text books. • Greater visibility by the dendrochronological organizations: TRS, ATR, and CanDendro. • Increasing numbers of dendrochronologists that are members on the ITRDBFOR Internet forum (up to 670 members). • Increasing publications in higher quality journals. • Conclusions

  38. Signs of a healthy discipline: • Increasing number of educational venues: NADEF, International Dendroecological Fieldweek, Asian fieldweek, Tucson summer courses, wood anatomy workshops • Increasing numbers of dendrochronologists holding positions as professors and starting their own labs, i.e., our graduate students are finding employment! • Increasing presence of dendrochronologists at national and international meetings: AAG, CAG, AGU, GSA, ESA, Forestry, Landscape Ecology, Wood Anatomy. • Increasing number of dendrochronology-specific national and international meetings where we can congregate and exchange ideas: TRACE, AmeriDendro, ICD, EuroDendro • Impressive production of graduate students in the tree-ring sciences in recent decades. • Bibliometrics

  39. Decreasing importance of certain key focal areas once held in high regard by the scientific community (e.g., archaeology and forest health). • Shift away from publishing proceedings volumes, which previously had greatly boosted visibility. • We’re healthy, but have a cold! • “Graying” of the field as professors become tenured and productivity decreases as responsibilities change. • Some signs of slow-down in attracting high-quality graduate students into the field (lowest 3 year % recently since ca. 1970). • No doubt, the retirements of several prominent names in dendrochronology have affected and will continue to affectproductivity in the field. • Bibliometrics

  40. COMING FULL CIRCLE:INTROSPECTIVE THINKING FOR A RETROSPECTIVE SCIENCE THANK YOU!

  41. Lotka's Law of Scientific Productivity:Based on the total number of publications in Dendrochronology (11,300), and assuming 1/3rd are one-time publications, we should have approximately 12 scientists with 72 or more publications:Dendrochronologist 1 : 201Dendrochronologist 2 : 158Dendrochronologist 3 : 127*Dendrochronologist 4 : 111Dendrochronologist 5 : 111* Dendrochronologist 6 : 106Dendrochronologist 7 : 101*Dendrochronologist 8 : 95Dendrochronologist 9 : 87Dendrochronologist 10: 85Dendrochronologist 11: 84Dendrochronologist 12: 75Dendrochronologist 13: 74 • Bibliometrics 7 European6 American

  42. Lotka's Law of Scientific Productivity:Based on the total number of publications in Dendrochronology (11,300), and assuming 1/3rd are one-time publications, we should have approximately 12 scientists with 72 or more publications:: 201 : 158 : 127* : 111 : 111* : 106 : 101* : 95 : 87 : 85 : 84 : 75 : 74 • Bibliometrics Name Pubs Range Yrs Pubs/Yr h-index 1. Fritz H. Schweingruber 1964–2007 44 4.6 19 2. Dieter Eckstein 1967–2006 40 4.0 9 3. Edward R. Cook 1976–2008 33 3.8 41 4. Michael G.L. Baillie 1972–2006 35 3.2 17 5. Gordon C. Jacoby 1976–2008 33 3.4 20 6. Harold C. Fritts 1956–2005 50 2.1 14 7. Rosanne D’Arrigo 1987–2008 22 4.6 19 8. Ernst Hollstein 1964–1988 25 3.8 3 9. Keith R. Briffa 1983–2007 25 3.5 18 10.Elio Corona 1958–2004 47 1.8 0 11.Bernd Becker 1968–1999 32 2.6 20 12.Andrew E. Douglass 1909–1949 41 1.8 15 13.Thomas W. Swetnam 1982–2007 25 3.0 20

  43. UCLA Regina Arizona Victoria Wyoming Arkansas Penn State Tennessee Washington West Virginia Colorado State Université Laval Western Ontario Northern Arizona British Columbia Queen's University 18 Graduate Degrees in the Tree-Ring Sciences, 1998–2007 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

  44. Bibliometrics Europe U.S. Canada

  45. Studies Conducted in Rest of Asia OverallTrend Studies Conducted in Africa OverallTrend

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